Hot Malatya Weather, Tight Crop Outlook Nudge Dried Apricot Prices Higher

Turkish dried apricot prices are edging higher across main export grades, supported by a smaller 2026 crop outlook and hot, dry weather in Malatya that favours harvesting and drying. Near‑term, the market looks firm to slightly bullish, with limited downside as processors and traders secure coverage ahead of new‑season price lists. Spot FCA Europe prices for Turkish dried apricots in the Netherlands have moved up by roughly 1–3% since late June, with mainstream sizes now trading around EUR 5.8–6.8/kg. FOB offers from Turkey for both sulphured and natural unsulphured fruit remain flat but are under upward pressure as exporters digest a significantly smaller 2026 crop estimate around 75,000–80,000 MT, well below a normal year. Hot and dry conditions in Malatya over the coming days support drying quality and logistics, reinforcing a firm tone as buyers assess coverage for Q3 and early Q4.

Prices

FCA Dordrecht (NL) quotations for Turkish origin, conventional dried apricots (sulphured) have strengthened compared with late June, with most sizes showing EUR 0.05–0.20/kg gains. Recent independent market commentary also notes a modest upward drift in late‑June FCA offers in North‑West Europe, confirming that today’s levels are at the upper end of the recent range.                                   

In Turkey, indicative FOB levels for unsulphured and sulphured fruit have been broadly steady in recent weeks, reflecting limited spot liquidity ahead of the new crop. Export reference data show Turkey remains a key global supplier, with strong 2024 export volumes to markets such as Russia, Germany and Middle Eastern destinations, underlining the structural demand base supporting today's prices. 

Supply & Demand

Turkey dominates global dried apricot trade, with Malatya alone accounting for the vast majority of Turkish dried apricot output. Recent investment and trade reports continue to describe the province as the world capital of apricots, providing around half of Turkey’s fresh apricot crop and roughly 70–95% of its dried apricot production, depending on the season. 

For the 2026 season, a recent industry harvest update indicates that the Turkish dried apricot crop is expected at only about 75,000–80,000 MT, in line with a new‑crop estimate of 75,000 MT reported by international industry bodies. This follows last year’s severe frost damage and further localised hail during flowering in April 2026, which together reduced fruit set and are likely to trim both yield and average quality. 

Despite the smaller crop, export demand remains healthy. Trade statistics and price intelligence point to solid shipments in 2024 and early 2025, with Turkey among the top global exporters of fresh and dried apricots, particularly into Russia, EU markets and the broader Middle East. This combination of constrained supply and resilient demand underpins the current firm price structure and reduces the probability of any significant downside in the short term. 

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: TR/Malatya)

Short‑term weather in Malatya is hot and dry, with clear skies and daytime highs around 35–36°C for 11–13 July and warm nights near 20–21°C. These conditions are favourable for the ongoing harvest and sun‑drying process, reducing moisture quickly and generally supporting sugar concentration and colour in the fruit. 

Earlier in the season, local authorities reported hail damage across several Malatya districts at the end of April, following prior concerns about frost in higher altitude orchards. While the latest photographic and field reports showed good bloom and improved confidence for the 2026 season versus 2025, the combined effect of frost risk, rainfall during flowering and hail has nonetheless capped the crop potential and contributed to today’s relatively tight supply outlook. 

Market Drivers

• Smaller 2026 Turkish crop: Industry estimates near 75,000–80,000 MT for dried apricots are well below a typical year, after weather‑related damage in 2025 and localised hail and rainfall issues this spring. This supports a structurally tighter balance into the new season. 
• Robust export base: Turkey’s position as a leading apricot exporter, with strong 2024 volumes to key markets such as Russia, Germany and the Middle East, suggests demand should comfortably absorb the reduced supply, especially in premium grades. 
• Macroeconomic backdrop: Research on Turkish exports indicates that both lira appreciation and high domestic inflation tend to restrain export volumes. With ongoing macro volatility, exporters are cautious in committing forward prices, preferring to keep offers firm while monitoring currency and input‑cost developments. 
• Old vs. new crop dynamics: Market commentary notes that old‑crop stocks are limited and priced firmly, while formal new‑season export price lists are not expected until late August. Until then, spot FCA Europe trades and informal offers will likely guide the market, with buyers paying a premium for prompt, high‑quality lots. 

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• For importers/roasters: Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs at current FCA Europe levels, especially for core sizes No. 1–4 and cubes, as the combination of a smaller crop and firm old‑crop prices limits downside. Leave some volume open for potential opportunities once official new‑crop lists emerge in late August.
• For Turkish packers/exporters: Hot, dry weather favours quality; use this to support premiums on well‑sorted, bright‑colour lots. With limited stock pressure and a tight crop, resist heavy discounting on larger sizes and natural (unsulphured) fruit.
• For industrial buyers: Diced/cube material remains relatively cheaper per kg than whole sizes; current small uptick suggests early restocking. Lock in requirements for fruit preparations and bakery mixes before further price alignment with whole fruit occurs.

3‑day directional outlook (all in EUR, indicative):

• FCA NL, whole graded sizes (No. 8–0): Bias firm to slightly higher; expected move 0 to +0.05 EUR/kg as buyers continue light restocking in a tight nearby market.
• FCA NL, cubes/industrial: Bias firm; stable to +0.02 EUR/kg as demand from processors picks up with limited pressure from origin.
• FOB TR, Malatya/Ankara unsulphured & sulphured: Bias sideways to mildly firmer; official price bands unchanged, but negotiation room is narrowing as exporters factor in the smaller 2026 crop and favourable drying outlook.