Turkish Apricots: Strong 2026 Crop Keeps Dried Prices Steady into New Season

A strong 2026 crop in Malatya and stable export offers are setting a calm but firm tone in the dried apricot market, with only limited quality losses from spring weather and no immediate sign of price pressure. New season export business is expected to build gradually from late July as buyers gauge quality and coverage needs. Turkey’s key apricot region is heading into the heart of harvest with a comfortable supply cushion and mostly stable weather, supporting expectations of stable world dried apricot prices into the new season. While heavy rains and some frost have trimmed quality in a few areas, the overall harvest potential remains high and the market currently shows little directional conviction. Buyers are therefore focusing on timing and sizing of coverage rather than outright price risk, watching closely how early drying and export flows evolve.

Prices

Official local quotes in Malatya currently range around 500–860 TL for sun‑dried apricots and 635–800 TL for natural apricots, with the regional Commodity Exchange signalling that these levels are attractive enough to support growers while helping maintain stable export prices. On the export side, recent offers for Turkish FOB Malatya dried apricots translate roughly into a band of about EUR 7.30–8.70/kg for conventional sulphured No. 8–1 sizes and about EUR 7.80–10.35/kg for unsulphured and organic material, depending on size and certification.

European FCA warehouse prices for Turkish origin in key hubs such as the Netherlands and Poland sit visibly lower than FOB Turkey, reflecting logistics, grade mix and competitive pressures. For example, recent FCA Dordrecht levels for conventional sizes range roughly from EUR 5.20–6.75/kg, suggesting comfortable import availability and modest seller competition in destination markets. Over recent weeks, both FOB and FCA quotations have been broadly side‑ways, underlining the message of a balanced market into the start of the new crop campaign.

Supply & Demand

The Malatya Governorship Harvest Commission projects total fresh apricot production at 341,055 tons from about 8.9 million bearing trees for 2026. Of this, more than 289,000 tons of fresh fruit are earmarked for drying, yielding an estimated 67,418 tons of net dried apricots. This is viewed locally as a “quite fruitful” season, creating a solid supply base for both domestic consumption and export programs.

Despite episodes of heavy rainfall and localised frost, authorities expect only limited impact on total volumes. Quality dispersion is likely to widen, with some downgraded lots but sufficient higher grades for premium and organic demand. New season exports are scheduled to start from the end of July or beginning of August, implying that nearby months will see an overlap of old‑crop stocks and early new‑crop volumes. Global demand is expected to remain steady, anchored by Europe as the core destination, with buyers mostly covered short‑term and prepared to step in gradually as physical samples confirm quality.

Fundamentals

The combination of a high crop forecast and the local Commodity Exchange’s expectation of stable export prices underpins a relatively balanced fundamental picture. The large share of fruit going into drying ensures that industrial and retail packer demand can be met without requiring aggressive price rationing, while the modest weather‑related quality losses limit the risk of oversupply in top grades.

On the cost side, growers and processors face ongoing pressure from labour and energy, but this is partly offset by the decent crop size and competitive exchange rate environment when converting Turkish lira production costs into export prices in EUR. With FOB quotations for key unsulphured sizes hovering around EUR 7.80–8.55/kg and premiums for organic and larger sizes reaching above EUR 10/kg, current levels appear broadly sustainable for the supply chain, reducing the incentive for sharp discounting early in the campaign.

Weather & Harvest Outlook

Harvesting in the Malatya region is progressing in a staggered fashion, with some orchards already in the drying phase while others prepare to pick towards the end of July. Recent and short‑term weather forecasts point to typical continental summer conditions with warm to hot daytime temperatures, generally clear skies and only scattered local showers, which are broadly supportive for drying and field operations in the coming days.

Given that most serious frost risk has already passed and current outlooks suggest several days of largely dry, sunny weather windows, the main remaining risk for this season is more about localised quality issues from earlier rains than any major volume loss. As a result, the overall supply outlook for 2026 dried apricots remains comfortably ample, reinforcing expectations of a stable start to the export season.

Trading Outlook

• Importers/packers: Consider layering in coverage for Q3–Q4 at current FOB levels, which reflect a generous crop and stable price guidance. Prioritise quality verification and origin visits where possible, as intra‑crop quality spreads may widen.
• Retail brands: Current price stability allows for medium‑term contracting without strong upward risk; focus negotiations on grade, specification and sustainability/organic premiums rather than headline price cuts.
• Producers/exporters: With a solid harvest and orderly export start from late July, disciplined sales pacing is key to avoid underpricing early volumes. Monitor destination stock levels and currency moves before adjusting offers.

3‑Day Price Indication

• FOB Malatya (TR): Dried apricots expected broadly stable over the next 3 days in EUR terms, with offers for standard sulphured and unsulphured material holding within current bands.
• FCA Netherlands (Dordrecht): Slightly easier tone possible on lower sizes due to comfortable stocks, but no sharp moves anticipated.
• FCA Poland (Lodz): Stable to mildly soft for bulk No. 8 material as importers manage warehouse positions ahead of larger new‑crop arrivals.