Turkish Dried Apricots Edge Higher as Malatya Heat Backs Tight Old-Crop Stocks

Turkish dried apricot prices are edging higher, supported by tight old-crop stocks and weather‑risk premiums on the upcoming Malatya harvest, while FCA Europe levels firm up across all sizes. Near‑term upside looks contained by expectations of a larger 2026 crop, but buyers face a steadily rising floor and limited room for further discounts. The Malatya region is entering a hot, dry spell just as fresh apricot harvesting for drying gains pace, following a season marked by earlier hail and rainfall issues. Recent private crop estimates point to a significantly smaller carryover and a 2026 dried apricot crop around 75,000–80,000 MT, with slightly weaker quality, keeping suppliers cautious on forward offers and encouraging price discipline. At the same time, FOB Turkey price ideas remain high in international terms, while FCA stocks in Europe are being repriced upward on renewed interest and freight/FX uncertainty.

Prices

FCA Dordrecht (NL) prices for Turkish dried apricots moved up by about EUR 0.10/kg over the last week across key wholefruit sizes. Size No. 5 is now indicated around EUR 6.20/kg, Size No. 6 at EUR 6.15/kg and Size No. 8 near EUR 5.72/kg FCA Europe, with cubes 8–10 mm close to EUR 3.50/kg. Larger sizes (0–2) are trading at a premium, around EUR 6.45–6.75/kg FCA as buyers seek limited top‑grade fruit.

FOB Turkey levels for unsulphured Malatya material remain elevated, broadly equivalent to around EUR 7.80–8.55/kg for conventional sizes 3–5 and above EUR 9.00/kg for organic lots, reflecting strong domestic prices, tight old‑crop stocks and robust export demand. These FOB indications are consistent with recent global benchmarks that place Turkish whole dried apricots at the top end of the international price range.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global source of dried apricots, accounting for the bulk of internationally traded volume, with Malatya as the key drying and packing hub. Local and international assessments suggest the 2026 Malatya dried apricot crop around 75,000–80,000 MT, following last year’s severe frost damage that reduced tree productivity and tightened ending stocks.

Weather during flowering and early fruit set was challenging, with frequent rainfall and localized hail events reported across parts of the province in late April. These conditions have likely trimmed yields and slightly weakened average quality, particularly for export‑grade larger sizes, reinforcing sellers’ reluctance to aggressively discount. On the demand side, export interest from Europe remains solid, while elevated price levels may be tempering some price‑sensitive destinations and encouraging limited substitution from lower‑priced origins.

Weather & Crop Outlook (Region: TR / Malatya)

The near‑term weather outlook for Malatya is hot and dry, with maximum temperatures around 33–36°C and clear skies expected over the next three days. This pattern is supportive of drying operations and should help stabilize fruit quality for product now moving from fresh to drying stages.

Earlier in the season, prolonged rainfall during flowering, followed by localized hailstorms, already introduced yield and quality risk for the 2026 crop. With the current stable, sunny spell, additional weather‑related downside to production looks limited in the very short term, so the market focus is shifting toward logistics, currency developments and demand evolution rather than further crop losses.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tight old‑crop stocks: Industry reports point to low carryover after last year’s frost‑affected season, helping to keep FOB prices firm despite expectations of a better 2026 harvest.
• Moderate new‑crop volume with softer quality: Private estimates at 75,000–80,000 MT and a 5–10% drop in average quality versus a normal year underpin premiums for larger, clean fruit and temper downside for lower grades.
• Export‑led demand: Global trade data confirm that Turkey is still the reference origin for dried apricot prices, with strong linkages to EU buyers and broader international markets.
• FX and freight risk: Ongoing volatility in Turkey’s macro environment and evolving trade flows in the wider region keep exporters cautious on long‑dated offers, reinforcing a risk premium in forward quotes.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indications

• Short‑term direction (next 3 days): With hot, stable weather and no new crop shocks, FCA Europe prices are likely to remain firm to slightly higher, especially for larger sizes (0–3) and clean unsulphured lots.
• Buyer strategy: End‑users with nearby coverage gaps should consider securing partial volumes at current levels, focusing on core sizes 3–5, while avoiding heavy pre‑booking far into the new season until official Turkish crop figures are confirmed.
• Seller strategy: Turkish packers and European holders are well‑positioned to defend current offers; selective, small discounts may be needed only for slower‑moving small sizes and cubes if demand softens.

3‑day regional outlook (EUR/kg, directional):

• FOB Turkey (Malatya/Ankara, unsulphured mid sizes): ~7.8–8.2 EUR/kg, expected steady to slightly firm.
• FCA Europe (Dordrecht, whole sizes 3–6): ~6.15–6.35 EUR/kg, expected firm with mild upward bias.
• FCA Europe (small sizes & cubes): Size 8 ~5.7 EUR/kg; cubes ~3.5 EUR/kg, expected mostly steady with potential small gains if buying interest broadens.