Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as New-Crop Tightness Looms

Turkish dried apricot prices are stable in EUR terms, but underlying supply signals and hot, dry weather in Malatya point to a firm market into the new crop and early export season. The Turkish dried apricot market is currently calm but underpinned by tight fundamentals. Malatya, which accounts for the bulk of global dried apricot output, is moving from a frost‑damaged 2025 crop with depleted stocks into a smaller 2026 harvest estimated at about 75,000–80,000 MT, well below a normal year. Export pace from Malatya remains solid, with Q1 2026 dried apricot exports already generating around USD 66 million despite last year’s frost losses, signalling persistent international demand. With EUR/TRY near record highs, euro‑based FOB offers are steady to slightly firm, while hot and rain‑free conditions in Malatya over the coming three days support drying but raise quality‑risk for remaining fresh fruit if extreme heat persists.

Prices

Current Turkish FOB offers for Malatya dried apricots in EUR terms are broadly unchanged compared with mid‑June, with a clear premium for organic and larger sizes. Stable nominal price lists in Turkey combined with a firm EUR/TRY around 50.5 keep export quotations supported for euro buyers. Domestic Turkish apricot prices in local currency remain well above last year, reflecting tight supply and strong internal demand.

Euro‑zone warehouse prices (FCA NL/PL) for Turkish origin are edging higher by about EUR 0.10/kg on several sizes compared with mid‑June, confirming a mild firming trend into the new crop. Tight Turkish supply after last year’s frost and ongoing solid import demand in Europe prevent any significant downside in nearby positions.

Supply & Demand

Following severe frost damage in 2025, the 2026 crop in Malatya is developing under reduced tree productivity and weather‑related flowering losses. A leading local exporter and the INC both point to a 2026 Turkish dried apricot crop around 75,000 MT, against more than 100,000 MT in a normal year, implying a significantly tighter balance sheet. Quality is expected to be 5–10% below average due to earlier hail and rain at bloom, increasing the share of industrial and small sizes.

Global dried apricot supply is also constrained, with world production in 2025/26 down sharply year‑on‑year according to the INC, and Turkey still the dominant origin for exportable volumes. Malatya’s Q1 2026 dried apricot exports of USD 66 million, largely from dwindling 2024 stocks, highlight that export demand has remained resilient despite high prices. European demand is described as steady but price‑sensitive; some buyers have shifted limited volumes to alternative origins, yet Turkey retains a strong quality and scale advantage.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: TR)

Weather in Malatya over the next three days (2–4 July) is hot and dry, with maximum temperatures around 35–36°C and no rain forecast. These conditions favour rapid sun‑drying of early harvested fruit and support a smooth start to new‑crop drying operations, reducing the risk of mould and quality downgrades during the drying phase.

However, the heat adds stress to orchards already affected by earlier frost, hail, and pollination issues, and may further limit sizing on later‑maturing fruit if high temperatures persist. Overall, near‑term weather is neutral‑to‑supportive for dried product availability but does not materially offset the underlying crop shortfall.

Fundamentals & FX

Official and trade sources indicate that the 2025/26 season drew down Turkish dried apricot stocks sharply, with limited carry‑over into the 2026 crop year. On the global level, the INC estimates show world dried apricot supply falling from nearly 175,000 MT in 2024/25 to about 138,000 MT in 2025/26, leaving very low ending stocks and little buffer against new‑crop shocks.

Currency remains a key driver: EUR/TRY is trading around 50–51, close to recent highs, making euro‑denominated export prices more attractive for Turkish packers and limiting their willingness to concede discounts. In local‑currency terms, Malatya prices are relatively steady, but in EUR they translate into firm quotations versus last year. Retail‑level data show fresh and processed apricot prices in Turkey running more than 50% above the prior‑year level, confirming strong inflationary pressure along the value chain.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

With a smaller 2026 Turkish crop, depleted stocks and supportive FX, the price floor for standard sulphured and unsulphured grades looks firm into July. Early export offers for new crop are already indicated around USD 8,500/MT (≈ EUR 8,000–8,200/MT) for standard whole apricots FOB, in line with recent assessments from Malatya exporters. Upside risk persists if weather turns adverse during harvest or if global buyers accelerate forward coverage once official crop figures are confirmed later in July.

• Importers (EU): Consider covering Q3–Q4 needs on current offers, especially key sizes 2–4, as downside appears limited while upside risk from final crop confirmation is meaningful.
• Retail/brand buyers: Lock in a portion of 2026/27 volume now and use options or staggered purchases for the balance to manage potential further firming.
• Turkish packers: Use the strong EUR/TRY to secure forward export contracts but avoid over‑committing before precise yield and quality data from official field inspections later in July.

3-Day Directional Price View (Region: TR)

• Malatya FOB sulphured grades (No. 1–5): Sideways to slightly firmer over the next three days, supported by hot, dry harvest weather and tight old‑crop stocks.
• Malatya FOB unsulphured & organic: Firm bias; limited availability and quality concerns keep premiums intact, with small potential upticks as exporters test higher offers.
• EU warehouses (NL/PL, FCA): Mild upward drift as nearby stocks are replenished at higher replacement costs from Turkey.