Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as Hot Weather Caps 2026 Crop Potential

Turkish dried apricot prices are flat but firm, with FOB Malatya/Ankara offers for 2026 crop holding steady around the high‑single‑digit EUR/kg range despite a smaller harvest outlook. Extremely hot, dry weather in Malatya supports concerns over limited yield and slightly weaker fruit quality, preventing any downside in offers. Following a frost‑damaged 2025 season, the 2026 Malatya crop is again constrained by poor flowering conditions and hail damage, with leading exporters estimating production at only about 75,000–80,000 t and quality down 5–10% versus a normal year. In this context, current Malatya and Ankara dried apricot prices in Türkiye (TR) are remarkably stable across sulphured and unsulphured grades, while EU FCA levels in the Netherlands and Poland show a modest upward adjustment, reflecting solid import demand and limited origins outside Türkiye. High temperatures forecast for the coming days in Malatya and Ankara will accelerate drying but are unlikely to change the overall tight‑to‑balanced supply picture.

Prices

FOB Malatya prices for new‑crop sulphured dried apricots are stable, with mid‑sizes (No. 4–6) trading in a narrow band around the upper‑single‑digit EUR/kg level, and only minor differentials by size. Unsulphured material carries a typical premium, while organic grades are trading 15–25% above conventional lots, reflecting niche demand and limited certified supply.

In European hubs (FCA Netherlands and Poland), ex‑warehouse prices for Turkish origin dried apricots are modestly higher than TR FOB levels once logistics and handling are added, but remain broadly aligned with the firm producer offers in Malatya. Recent small price upticks on several FCA lines suggest that buyers are gradually accepting higher replacement costs as the smaller 2026 crop picture becomes clearer.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant origin in global dried apricots, accounting for the vast majority of world trade and with Malatya alone producing the bulk of Turkey’s dried volume. For the 2026 crop, local exporters report that frost in 2025 left trees less productive, while 2026 flowering suffered from continuous rainfall and localized hail, leading to a harvest estimate of around 75,000–80,000 t – well below a normal year.

This constrained supply comes on top of already tight global stocks after last year’s weather‑related shortfalls and firm demand from health‑oriented consumers and snack manufacturers. While some substitution from other dried fruits is possible, Turkish apricots remain difficult to replace in many applications, supporting the current floor in FOB prices despite buyer resistance to further increases.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (TR)

Weather in Malatya and Ankara for 02–04 July 2026 is hot and dry, with daytime highs mostly between 32–36°C under clear skies. These conditions are ideal for final field drying and reduce the risk of rain‑related quality issues such as mould or staining during the critical harvest‑to‑drying window.

However, the earlier‑season rainfall during flowering and localised hailstorms have already limited fruit set and slightly weakened overall fruit quality in many orchards. With no significant rain forecast in the short term, weather is now supportive rather than threatening, implying that the market will have to work with a smaller but quickly‑moving crop, keeping spot availability tight as exporters prioritise long‑term contracts.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Export data for Q1 2026 show that Malatya shipped over 7,000 t of dried apricots worth about USD 66 million, underscoring resilient external demand even after the 2025 frost. Trade sources in Malatya highlight strong interest from Europe, the Middle East and North America, with several large processors and traders expanding or upgrading facilities to consolidate their position in the supply chain.

International buyers are increasingly differentiating between sulphured and unsulphured products. Sulphured apricots remain the workhorse for mainstream retail and foodservice due to longer shelf life and colour stability, while unsulphured and organic lines capture premium segments but face tighter supply and higher pricing. Given Turkey’s dominance in the category, alternative origins – including Armenia and Central Asia – offer only limited relief to global buyers, especially in higher grades and fully certified products.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas (3 days, TR focus)

Over the next three days (02–04 July 2026), no major macro or weather shocks are expected for the Turkish dried apricot market. Hot, sunny conditions in Malatya and Ankara will accelerate drying and product flow, but will not materially increase total available volumes. Price indications are therefore expected to remain steady, with any moves limited to small, lot‑specific adjustments as exporters test demand at slightly higher levels.

• For importers/packers (EU, UK, MENA): Consider locking in at least part of 2026/27 needs at current FOB TR levels, especially for key sizes No. 2–4 and for organic unsulphured grades, where supply is most constrained.
• For Turkish exporters: Maintain firm offers on prime grades; given the small crop, avoid deep discounts for large spot enquiries unless they secure strategic multi‑month commitments.
• For industrial users (bakery, cereal, snack mixes): Evaluate partial substitution with other dried fruits for price‑sensitive SKUs, but plan for structurally firm apricot costs through at least the next two quarters.