Turkish Dried Apricots: Firm EUR Prices as Hot Malatya Weather Caps Supply

Turkish dried apricot prices are flat to slightly higher, with FOB Malatya/Ankara offers holding firmly in the high‑single‑digit EUR/kg range and EU FCA levels in NL/PL edging up by about EUR 0.10/kg over the last two weeks. Tight 2026 crop expectations around 75,000–80,000 t and ongoing hot, dry weather in Malatya keep sellers in control and limit any downside. Export demand into the EU remains resilient, and no immediate macro or weather shocks are expected over the next three days, suggesting a stable but firm price environment. Buyers looking to cover 2026/27 needs face limited opportunities for meaningful discounts unless demand weakens or quality issues force some re‑grading later in the season. For now, market tone is clearly producer‑friendly, with gradual price appreciation more likely than correction.

Prices

Latest transactional indications for Turkish origin dried apricots show:

• FOB Turkey (Malatya/Ankara), sulphured and unsulphured No. 1–5: broadly stable around EUR 7.8–8.7/kg, unchanged over the past two weeks.
• FCA NL (Dordrecht), conventional sizes No. 0–8: up roughly EUR 0.10/kg versus late June, now around EUR 5.7–6.8/kg depending on calibre.
• FCA PL (Lodz), size No. 8: stable at about EUR 5.2/kg.

These levels are consistent with reports that Turkish dried apricot prices are “flat but firm”, supported by a smaller 2026 Malatya crop and hot weather limiting yield potential.

Supply & Demand

Current analysis from exporters in Malatya points to a 2026 dried apricot crop of roughly 75,000–80,000 t, with the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) placing the estimate at about 75,000 t. This is materially below a normal year and follows a frost‑damaged 2025 season, leaving the global market structurally tight.

The same assessment notes that continuous rainfall during flowering and localised hailstorms reduced fruit set and damaged orchards, while overall fruit quality is expected to be 5–10% weaker than a typical crop. This combination of smaller volume and slightly lower quality encourages packers to keep offers firm, particularly for premium sizes and colour grades.

On the demand side, Q1 2026 export data show Malatya shipped over 7,000 t of dried apricots worth around USD 66 million, confirming that international demand held up even after the previous year’s frost. Within Europe, dried apricots continue to benefit from ongoing interest in healthy snacks and ingredients, and there are no signs of sudden demand destruction in July.

Recent EU customs changes from 1 July 2026 remove the duty‑free threshold for low‑value B2C parcels, but bulk B2B imports of dried apricots are generally handled through regular customs channels already. As a result, near‑term demand from mainstream food and retail buyers is unlikely to be significantly affected, though some marginal e‑commerce flows may adjust pricing.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Weather services report predominantly hot, dry and sunny conditions in Malatya at the start of July. Forecasts show daytime highs around 33–36°C and minimal rain through at least 7–8 July 2026.

While such weather favours drying operations and reduces disease pressure, it also caps any late yield recovery and may stress trees in areas with limited irrigation. Combined with earlier flowering and hail issues, this supports the narrative of a structurally tight 2026 crop with little upside to production estimates.

No severe weather events are expected over the coming three days that would abruptly change supply prospects or disrupt logistics. As drying progresses under stable conditions, more product should become physically available, but not at volumes likely to pressure prices lower.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Fundamentally, Turkish dried apricots remain in a tight but orderly market. Successive short crops and constrained 2026 output keep inventories lean, while exporters have largely adopted disciplined offering strategies that favour margin over volume.

Competition from alternative origins (e.g. Central Asia, Armenia) is growing, yet Malatya still supplies the majority of the world’s dried apricot exports and retains a premium position on quality and food safety for EU buyers. With buyers needing to secure coverage for the 2026/27 season, the balance of power currently rests with Turkish sellers.

Speculative activity is limited in this physical market, so fundamentals rather than financial flows dominate short‑term direction. In the absence of a demand shock, the current high‑single‑digit EUR/kg FOB range is well supported, and further modest appreciation cannot be ruled out, especially for large sizes and organic or unsulphured lots.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Trading recommendations (short term)

• Industrial buyers / packers (EU): Use current stability to secure at least partial 2026/27 coverage, especially for large sizes (No. 0–3) and clean, EU‑compliant product. Waiting for lower prices carries more risk than upside.
• Importers / distributors: Consider building modest additional stocks at present FCA NL/PL levels, focusing on versatile mid‑sizes (No. 4–6) where end‑user demand is stable.
• Turkish exporters: Maintain price discipline on high‑quality lots; consider selective promotions on off‑grades or smaller sizes later in July if warehouse space or cash‑flow turn becomes a priority.

3‑day regional price indication (2–4 July 2026)

• Turkey (Malatya/Ankara, FOB): Prices expected to remain firm and broadly unchanged in the EUR 7.8–8.7/kg band for standard sulphured and unsulphured sizes No. 1–5, with upside risk for premium sizes and organic lots.
• EU Northwest (FCA NL – Dordrecht): Dried apricots likely to trade sideways to slightly firmer, with a possible move of +0.05–0.10 EUR/kg on tight replacement costs and strong Turkish FOB indications.
• EU Central (FCA PL – Lodz): Size 8 offers expected stable around EUR 5.2/kg, with limited room for discounting given unchanged replacement prices from Turkey.