Turkish Dried Apricots: Stable Domestic FOB, Firmer EU FCA as Exports Accelerate

Turkish dried apricot prices are broadly stable at origin while FCA levels in the EU have firmed modestly, supported by strong first‑half export demand and a still‑tight global balance. With Malatya weather seasonally warm and dry and no major crop threat in the coming days, nearby price risk remains skewed slightly to the upside rather than to a sharp correction. European buyers continue to accept small week‑on‑week increases for Turkish dried apricots, especially for larger sizes and processed cubes, while Turkish FOB indications in Malatya and Ankara are largely unchanged. Recent data show Malatya’s dried apricot export revenues exceeding USD 115 million in the first half of 2026, underlining still‑solid external demand. A recently announced 2026 crop target of around 67,000 tonnes of dried apricots in Malatya implies only a modest improvement in supply, keeping the market sensitive to any weather or logistical disruption.

Prices

FOB prices in Türkiye for standard sulphured and unsulphured dried apricots are flat compared with late June, while EU warehouse prices have edged 0.5–1.5% higher over the last two weeks.

Given the continued weakness and volatility of the Turkish lira, exporters remain focused on preserving EUR price levels rather than discounting, despite ongoing domestic cost pressures. Wider Turkish food inflation remains elevated, with official June consumer and producer indices still showing significant annual increases, helping to anchor exporters’ EUR ask levels.

Supply & Demand

Malatya continues to dominate the global dried apricot market, supplying the vast majority of Turkey’s output and up to two‑thirds of global dried apricot production. For the 2026 season, local authorities and producer representatives have set an indicative production target of about 67,000 tonnes of dried apricots, close to last year and well below bumper‑crop years, implying only a modest loosening of supply.

Export demand remains brisk. According to recent trade data, Malatya’s dried apricot exports exceeded USD 115 million in the first half of 2026, slightly ahead of the same period last year, with Europe still the key destination and new marketing efforts underway in Asian markets. Turkish dried fruit exporters highlight that dried apricots, along with figs and raisins, are core products in the country’s EUR‑denominated dried fruit export basket.

On the buy side, EU importers appear partially covered for nearby summer needs but are still engaging for Q4 delivery, favouring Turkish origin for its consistent quality and scale. Turkish exporters, many of them long‑established Malatya‑based processors, report strong interest from both traditional EU customers and newer markets in Asia and the Middle East, helping to keep the forward curve firm into the new crop marketing year.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: TR/Malatya)

Short‑term weather in Malatya is seasonally warm and predominantly dry. Local 6‑day forecasts around 14 July 2026 point to mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with daytime highs in the low‑ to mid‑30s °C and only isolated light showers, typical for mid‑summer in Eastern Anatolia.

This pattern is broadly favourable for the ongoing sun‑drying of apricots, supporting good colour and low moisture levels, and reducing the risk of fungal issues or fruit spoilage. With the main frost and flowering risks long past and no significant rain systems expected in the coming days, weather is currently a supportive, not disruptive, factor for both crop quality and drying progress.

Fundamentals & Macro Context

Structurally, Türkiye remains by far the largest global producer and exporter of dried apricots, and recent investment and export‑promotion documents continue to emphasise dried apricots as a flagship product for Malatya and for national agricultural exports. The product benefits from established orchards, specialised processing capacity and a deep export infrastructure centered on Malatya and Aegean ports.

Macro‑economically, Türkiye is still navigating high inflation and a structurally weak lira, part of an ongoing multi‑year economic adjustment. Empirical work on Turkish exports suggests that real exchange‑rate appreciation and high domestic inflation can both weigh on export competitiveness, but in practice, exporters in niche, high‑value products such as dried apricots often reset EUR prices to protect margins, especially when global supply is not abundant.

In this context, the combination of strong first‑half export performance, only modestly larger crop expectations, and stable to rising input costs is consistent with today’s observed pattern of flat FOB but gently firmer EU FCA prices. Unless a downside surprise emerges on crop size or quality, the fundamental backdrop argues against aggressive price discounting into the autumn.

Short‑Term Trading Outlook

• Importers (EU/UK): With FCA prices in the Netherlands and Poland edging higher and origin values stable, nearby downside looks limited. Consider covering Q4 2026 needs on price dips or via staggered purchases rather than waiting for a large correction that current fundamentals do not justify.
• Turkish exporters: The combination of firm export demand and favourable drying weather supports a strategy of holding offers at current EUR levels, especially for premium sizes and cubes. Some flexibility may be needed on smaller sizes to secure early‑season flow, but broad discounting appears unnecessary.
• Industrial users: For processed forms such as cubes, where recent gains are slightly stronger, locking in part of 2026/27 requirements now could hedge against further gradual appreciation if export demand from new markets (e.g. South and East Asia) continues to grow.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, EUR)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara (TR): Stable in EUR terms over the next three days; only limited room for downside given export interest and weather‑supported drying progress.
• FCA Dordrecht (NL): Slightly firmer bias (+0.5% or less) as EU buyers continue to accept small increases for nearby shipments, particularly in larger sizes.
• FCA Łódź (PL): Stable to mildly firmer, tracking Dutch warehouse levels for standard Turkish origin lots and influenced by steady regional demand.