Turkish Dried Apricots: FOB Prices Flat, Market Waiting on New-Crop Signals

Turkish dried apricot prices are flat and firm this week, with no visible moves on core Malatya FOB ranges as buyers and sellers wait for clearer guidance on the 2026/27 crop and export demand. A calm, seasonally mild 3‑day weather outlook in Malatya and Ankara removes immediate frost or rain risks and supports a sideways short‑term price view. Demand from European buyers remains steady but not aggressive, and alternative origins have only marginally eroded Turkey’s dominant position in the dried apricot trade. Structural tightness after last season’s frost‑affected crop and limited old‑crop stocks continues to underpin the market, especially for sulphured and premium organic grades. With orchards past bloom and no fresh weather shock, market participants are focused on export sales pace and currency developments rather than fundamentals shifting within days.

Prices & Market Tone

FOB Malatya prices for Turkish dried apricots are unchanged versus mid‑May, with unsulphured whole fruit trading roughly in the EUR 7.8–8.7/kg range depending on calibre, and organic equivalents around EUR 9.3–10.35/kg. Sulphured grades (2,000 ppm) continue to command a modest premium over low grades but remain broadly aligned with unsulphured mid‑range offers, keeping the overall price structure flat week‑on‑week.

Export trade commentary in Q1–Q2 2026 still describes Turkish dried apricot prices as “high and firm” after the frost‑reduced previous crop and lower export volumes, a backdrop that has not materially changed into late May. Limited old‑crop availability in Malatya warehouses and ongoing European retail and industrial demand are preventing any meaningful downside despite seasonally quieter spot buying.

Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers

Turkey remains the world’s leading apricot producer and dominates global dried apricot exports, with Malatya accounting for the bulk of national dried output. Industry and export‑house reports highlight that last season’s frost significantly reduced usable supply, leaving tight beginning stocks for 2025/26 and keeping a risk premium in forward offers.

Export data and trade analysis into early 2026 indicate that Turkish dried apricot exports have slowed from normal levels, largely because of reduced availability rather than weak demand. European buyers remain reliant on Turkish origin; alternative producers such as Uzbekistan and Iran have increased volumes but are far from displacing Turkey’s central role in the pipeline.

Over the next three days (29–31 May 2026), Malatya’s weather is forecast to be seasonally mild, with some early showers followed by plenty of sun, highs around 20–23°C and cool nights near 7–10°C. Ankara shows a very similar pattern, with mostly sunny skies and highs near 19–21°C. This pattern is benign for orchards, suggesting low short‑term risk for the developing 2026/27 crop and supporting stable price expectations.

Fundamentals & Structural Context

Recent sector analysis underlines that Turkish dried apricot fundamentals are highly sensitive to weather shocks and input‑cost inflation, with farm‑gate prices reacting strongly to changes in agricultural input indices. Climate research further notes that Malatya’s dominant cultivar ‘Hacıhaliloğlu’ faces increased drought stress risk in coming years, keeping medium‑term supply uncertainty elevated.

For 2025/26 and early 2026/27, global dried apricot balance sheets show a decline in total supply and a drawdown of Turkish ending stocks compared with the previous high‑production years. With many leading exporters clustered around Malatya and heavily export‑oriented production systems, the market is structurally tight whenever Turkish crops underperform.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction (3–7 days): Sideways. Stable Malatya weather and unchanged export tone argue for flat prices across sulphured and unsulphured grades in EUR terms.
• For buyers: Consider covering near‑term needs on any small dips in EUR prices, especially for premium organic and larger calibres, as structural tightness and limited old‑crop stocks cap downside.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline; with no fresh negative weather or macro shocks, there is little need to discount. Prioritise quality differentials and flexible shipment windows to secure demand.
• For traders: Watch for new official crop indications or early field surveys from Malatya; any hint of yield issues could quickly re‑ignite upward price pressure given low inventory buffers.

3‑Day Regional Price & Directional View (EUR)

• Malatya FOB – whole unsulphured (No. 1–5): ≈ 7.8–8.7 EUR/kg, expected flat over the next three days, supported by benign weather and tight stock.
• Malatya/Ankara FOB – organic sun‑dried: ≈ 9.3–10.35 EUR/kg, stable with a firm undertone amid ongoing European organic demand.
• EU warehouses (NL, PL) FCA – cubes & bulk: ≈ 3.3–6.4 EUR/kg, slightly discounted to origin, likely to remain steady as spot buyers balance high origin prices with available EU stock.