Hailstorm in Malatya Sets the Tone for a Tight Apricot Season

A severe hailstorm in Malatya on 15 May has shaken confidence in the upcoming Turkish apricot crop. While dried apricot export prices are still stable, the sudden weather shock in the core growing region points to tighter raw material availability and a more bullish undertone for the new season. The 10‑minute hail event, described locally as turning orchards and roads white like snow, stripped many unripe apricots from the trees in the affected areas. Farmers, already weakened by previous seasons of climate‑related damage, now face another year of uncertainty. For buyers, this means that today’s flat price picture could quickly give way to firming offers once damage assessments and export programs are clearer.

Prices & Immediate Market Tone

FOB offers from Turkey for dried apricots remain broadly unchanged despite the hail shock. Core Malatya unsulphured grades are currently indicated around EUR 7.80–8.65/kg, with premium organic lots between roughly EUR 9.30 and 10.35/kg. Sulphured material trades slightly lower, mostly in the EUR 7.30–8.70/kg range depending on size and specification. European FCA stocks (notably in the Netherlands and Poland) are available at a discount near EUR 5.15–6.40/kg, reflecting earlier procurement and buffering immediate supply concerns.

Week‑on‑week, most FOB quotations have been stable, with only minor downward adjustments previously seen in some sulphured lines now largely absorbed. In other words, the market has not yet priced in any substantial loss of the new crop, as physical damage estimates remain preliminary. However, sentiment has clearly shifted from neutral to cautiously firm, particularly for higher‑quality unsulphured and organic grades originating directly from Malatya.

Supply, Weather & Crop Damage

Malatya and its surroundings, the heart of Turkey’s apricot production, have been among the regions most exposed to erratic weather in recent years. The mid‑May hailstorm followed an already problematic spring with excessive rainfall, hitting orchards at a vulnerable stage when fruit was still unripe. In the most affected pockets, growers report that nearly all young fruit was knocked to the ground, effectively eliminating yield on those plots.

At regional level, it is still too early to quantify the exact harvest loss. Some orchards escaped with partial or minimal damage, while others suffered near‑total destruction. Current short‑term weather for Malatya (19–21 May) points to relatively cool conditions with considerable cloudiness and scattered thundershowers, but no immediate repeat of extreme hail intensity. This helps prevent additional acute damage but does little to offset the fruit already lost.

Fundamentals & Export Outlook

Fundamentally, the market is shifting from a comfortable balance towards a tighter raw material scenario. Stocks from the previous crop and existing FCA inventory in Europe are providing short‑term cover, restraining any immediate price spike. However, processors and exporters in Malatya must now reassess raw material availability and potential processing volumes for both sulphured and unsulphured dried apricots.

The key uncertainty is how much of the regional production base was hit and what this means for exportable surplus later in the season. With farmers still recovering from 2025’s climate‑related losses, many lack the financial resilience to absorb another poor harvest. This may translate into firmer minimum price expectations, stronger resistance to discounting, and more selective contracting, particularly for high‑spec and organic lines.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

Over the coming weeks, price discovery will hinge on field surveys, insurance assessments and the first concrete crop estimates from Malatya. Until then, the baseline scenario is a gradual firming bias rather than an abrupt rally, as buyers and sellers test each other’s risk appetite. If damage reports confirm heavy localised losses with limited compensation from other Turkish regions, new‑season offers could move noticeably higher into Q3.

• For importers/industrial users: Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs now at current FOB levels for core Malatya grades, especially unsulphured and organic, while keeping some volume open for later in case damage proves less severe than feared.
• For retailers/brand owners: Lock in contracts for key promotional lines to secure quality and continuity; be prepared to adjust pack sizes or blends if raw material premiums rise.
• For origin processors/exporters: Review forward commitments and avoid over‑selling until orchard‑level assessments are clearer. Prioritise higher‑margin specifications and long‑standing customers in allocation plans.

3‑Day Regional & Price Direction View

Weather in Malatya over the next three days (19–21 May) is forecast to be cool with periods of cloud cover and scattered thundershowers, but without clear signals of another severe hail episode. This should limit further abrupt physical damage in the very short term.

Given stable FOB indications and lingering uncertainty about crop size, the 3‑day price outlook for Turkish dried apricots is sideways to slightly firmer, particularly for Malatya‑origin unsulphured and organic grades. European FCA prices are expected to remain broadly stable, with any tightening more likely to appear once new‑crop availability and quality become clearer later in the season.