Bajra Feed Demand Lifts Millet Complex Amid New-Crop Pressure

Bajra prices in India are set to edge higher as poultry and cattle-feed manufacturers switch toward the grain, which is currently discounted to maize. Short-term, a further ₹100/quintal upside is seen as stockists accumulate ahead of stronger feed demand. Across key mandis, new-crop arrivals in Haryana and Rajasthan have capped prices for now, but the discount of around ₹300–350/quintal versus maize is improving bajra’s competitiveness in compound feed. At the same time, higher national production this season is likely to be largely absorbed by a sharp rise in feed consumption. Global millet trade remains well supplied from Black Sea and Chinese origins, while Ukrainian and Chinese kernel offers in EUR show a broadly steady tone, suggesting a mildly supportive but not explosive price environment for the wider millet complex.

Prices

In India, bajra is reported trading roughly ₹300–350/quintal below maize, making it an increasingly attractive feed grain and underpinning a firm undertone despite harvest pressure. New-crop arrivals in Haryana and Rajasthan initially weighed on spot values, but stronger buying from stockists at lower levels is already absorbing part of the surplus.

Domestically, trade commentary points to scope for an additional ₹100/quintal upside as feed demand accelerates and stockists continue to build positions. Recent mandi indications around ₹2,300/quintal for bajra confirm that cash prices are hovering below the government’s minimum support price, which further limits downside risks and supports the case for a gradual, rather than sharp, price firming.

Supply & Demand

India’s bajra production is expected to be higher this season, yet consumption – especially in the poultry and cattle-feed sectors – is projected to rise sharply. Because bajra is currently cheaper than maize and other energy ingredients, feed formulators are increasing its inclusion rates, which should absorb much of the additional crop and tighten the balance sheet as the marketing year progresses.

Globally, millet and related coarse grains remain well supplied from Black Sea and Chinese origins, helping stabilize international prices and encouraging hand-to-mouth buying from millers and feed producers. For now, logistics and relative pricing against maize, wheat and alternative feedstocks are more important than weather shocks, with buyers focusing on flexible coverage rather than long-term stockpiling.

Fundamentals & Feed Dynamics

The key fundamental driver is the widening price spread between bajra and maize, which materially improves bajra’s competitiveness in compound feed rations. Poultry integrators and cattle-feed manufacturers are responding by stepping up bajra use wherever logistics and quality allow, especially in northern India where fresh arrivals are concentrated.

Higher production would normally point to a bearish bias, but the strong pull from the livestock sector and the grain’s discount to maize are shifting sentiment toward a mildly supportive stance. With global millet kernels and seeds offers from Ukraine and China largely steady in EUR, import and export flows are unlikely to trigger sharp price swings in the near term, though any renewed rally in maize could quickly channel additional demand into bajra.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Indian domestic market: Scope for roughly ₹100/quintal further upside as stockists accumulate and feed demand strengthens; downside appears limited while bajra trades well below maize and the official support price.
• Export-linked millet segment: Ukrainian FOB and FCA millet prices in EUR are firm-to-steady; sellers can maintain offer ideas but should remain flexible on nearby shipment premiums amid ample global availability.
• Feed users: Poultry and cattle-feed manufacturers may continue to favor bajra over maize in rations where feasible, locking in part of their needs before the expected incremental price firming materializes.

3-day price indication (directional): Indian bajra: mildly firmer with limited upside; Ukrainian and Chinese millet kernels and seed offers: broadly stable with a slight upward bias for premium qualities if feed buying intensifies.