Barley Market Holds Firm as EU Cash Prices Diverge from Black Sea Weakness

Barley markets are entering late September in a holding pattern: Australian feed barley futures are flat, German cash prices remain firm, while Black Sea export values soften. Domestic feed demand and tight forage supply in parts of Europe are offsetting weaker export interest, keeping overall price levels broadly supported. Globally, barley is tracking the consolidation seen in wider grains after recent volatility. EU export flows have slowed markedly at the start of MY 2026/27, particularly to China, even as Saudi buying remains a stabilising factor. At the same time, Black Sea logistics disruptions continue to cap Ukraine’s export pace, weighing on regional FOB values but preventing a deeper global price correction. Against this backdrop, near-term direction will hinge on feed grain competitiveness versus wheat and corn, as well as any escalation of Black Sea risks.

Prices

Australian feed barley futures on the Sydney exchange are unchanged, with the November 2026 contract last settling at 315.00 AUD/t and further-dated positions out to January 2029 also flat on September 23, indicating a steady forward curve and limited fresh speculative interest.

In Germany, feed-grade barley seeds EXW Drentwede (DE) were quoted at 0.225 EUR/kg on September 22, slightly below mid-month highs but still within a narrow 0.219–0.229 EUR/kg range seen since late August, confirming firm but range-bound domestic values. Ukrainian feed barley seeds stand notably cheaper, with FCA Kyiv at 0.15 EUR/kg and FCA/FOB Odesa around 0.14–0.16 EUR/kg, underlining the price discount required to move grain amid logistical headwinds.

Recent international assessments show European feed barley prices holding firm, with EU quotations for September up low single digits month-on-month, while Black Sea DAP/FOB values have eased modestly in the last days.

Supply & Demand

Internationally, feed barley supply for 2026/27 is comfortable, with recent USDA updates pointing to higher production in key exporters such as Australia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan versus earlier expectations. However, export logistics, not crop size, are the main constraint in the Black Sea.

Ukraine’s barley exports at the start of MY 2026/27 are well below last year, with shipments down by more than one-third year-on-year as attacks on Black Sea infrastructure and costly alternative routes via Danube and EU rail limit flows. Russian grain shipments have also slowed sharply in early September, despite Moscow cutting export duties to zero for wheat, barley and corn through December to support off-take.

In the EU, early-season barley exports are reported down around 40% versus the previous year, reflecting reduced Chinese demand and stronger competition from discounted Black Sea origins. At the same time, a drought-affected forage situation in parts of Germany and northern Europe is keeping domestic feed usage robust, lending support to local cash prices despite the softer export tone.

Fundamentals & Weather

Australian futures data show a flat forward curve from November 2026 through July 2027 at around 298–303 AUD/t, signalling that the market does not yet see major tightening ahead, in line with expectations for solid Southern Hemisphere production. In Europe, indicative feed barley benchmarks for September have risen low-to-mid single digits year-on-year, tracking broader feed grain strength.

Weather-wise, the Northern Hemisphere barley harvest is largely complete, so near-term price impacts from weather are limited. Current market focus is shifting toward conditions for winter barley sowing in Europe and the CIS, where elevated input costs and uncertainty around export routes could marginally curb planted area, particularly in regions closest to the Black Sea.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

With Australian futures stable and German EXW prices firm, while Black Sea export values edge lower, the near-term bias for barley is sideways with a slight downward tilt in export markets. Any further escalation of Black Sea disruptions or a renewed rally in wheat and corn could quickly reintroduce upside volatility.

• Feed buyers (EU livestock, integrators): Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs at current German EXW and nearby EU levels, which remain historically moderate relative to wheat.
• Producers in Germany and Western Europe: Use current firmness in domestic cash markets to advance sales on a staggered basis, while retaining some volume in case Black Sea disruptions tighten global feed grain balances later in the season.
• Importers in MENA and Asia: Monitor Black Sea and Australian offers closely; current Ukrainian and regional discounts present value but require careful assessment of logistics and execution risk.

3‑Day Directional Outlook

• Australia (SFE feed barley futures): Sideways; low liquidity but no clear catalyst for a breakout in the next three sessions.
• Germany (EXW feed barley): Slightly firm; tight local forage and steady demand should keep prices supported around recent levels.
• Black Sea (UA FOB/Odesa region): Slightly softer to sideways; ongoing logistics challenges keep a discount in place, but further downside is likely limited without additional export pressure.