Black Gram Market Firms on Costly Imports and Delayed Kharif Sowing

Black gram prices are turning decisively firmer as higher Myanmar offer levels, a weak rupee and delayed kharif sowing tighten the near-term balance. With summer arrivals limited and dal demand steady, both imported and domestic urad are holding gains and may remain supported if sowing delays persist. The market is entering the critical monsoon planting window with a structurally tighter setup. Imported Myanmar FAQ and SQ urad for June–July shipment have inched higher, while domestic spot prices across key origins such as Madhya Pradesh have followed. At the same time, India’s kharif pulses acreage, including urad, is lagging last year and El Niño-related monsoon concerns are rising. Fresh IMD guidance for July points to below-normal rainfall across much of India, raising the risk that sowing and yield prospects for pulses will remain under pressure and keep black gram prices elevated.

Prices

Imported Myanmar-origin FAQ urad at Chennai for June–July shipment has risen by about $5 per tonne to around $835 per tonne C&F, while SQ quality has moved up to roughly $915 per tonne C&F. In the domestic market, urad FAQ has gained about ₹100–150 per quintal to approximately ₹8,400 per quintal, and SQ quality has strengthened to around ₹9,150 per quintal.

Madhya Pradesh-origin urad has also appreciated, trading in the ₹8,000–8,400 per quintal band amid thin arrivals. On the processing side, steady demand has kept urad dal prices firm, with chilka quoted near ₹9,200–11,200 per quintal and dhoya around ₹9,200–11,000 per quintal. Overall, the price structure signals a firm to mildly bullish tone along the entire black gram value chain.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, imported flow is constrained by both higher Myanmar origin prices and an unfavourable currency backdrop, as the still-weak rupee keeps import parity elevated. Summer urad arrivals inside India remain limited, preventing any meaningful easing of spot markets. This combination is tightening availability just as the kharif season ramps up.

Demand from the dal segment remains broadly supportive, with no signs yet of major rationing at current price levels. The firmness in both chilka and dhoya dal suggests downstream buyers are still accepting higher raw urad costs. Unless a strong improvement in arrivals or import economics emerges, current demand patterns are likely to keep domestic spot prices well supported.

Fundamentals & Monsoon Risk

Fundamentals are being reshaped by weaker-than-usual early kharif sowing. All-India kharif pulses sowing up to 12 June has dropped from 2.73 lakh hectares last year to 1.55 lakh hectares this year, a decline of around 43%. Urad sowing in particular is trailing, reflecting farmer caution around weather and moisture conditions.

These acreage delays are occurring against the backdrop of a below-normal monsoon outlook. Recent guidance from the India Meteorological Department and independent forecasters points to below-normal July rainfall nationally, with 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall revised down to about 90% of the long-period average, largely due to strengthening El Niño conditions. Given July’s critical role for kharif pulses, continued rainfall deficits would likely limit any catch-up in urad sowing and add further upside risk to prices.

Weather & Sowing Outlook

After one of the driest Junes in decades, with all-India rainfall estimated at roughly 40% below normal, July is also forecast to deliver below-normal precipitation across most of the country. The IMD and other models indicate that El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen through July–September, keeping monsoon performance under pressure and heightening uncertainty for kharif pulses yields.

For urad, the combination of delayed planting and elevated weather risk suggests that even if rains improve later in the season, the window for acreage recovery is narrow. Any further slippage in sowing progress over the next 2–3 weeks would cement expectations of tighter 2026/27 domestic availability and could trigger additional risk premiums along the curve.

Trading Outlook

• Bias remains upward in the near term, supported by high import parity, thin arrivals and below-normal monsoon forecasts for July. Dips in domestic urad and dal prices are likely to attract buying interest as long as sowing lags persist.
• Importers should closely monitor Myanmar offer dynamics and FX; further rupee weakness or additional gains in C&F values would reinforce the bullish tone and justify staggered coverage rather than aggressive spot buying.
• Processors and retailers may consider securing a portion of forward needs at current levels, while maintaining flexibility through staggered purchases in case of any temporary relief from improved rainfall or policy interventions later in the season.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

Given the current fundamentals, imported and domestic urad prices in India are expected to remain firm over the next three trading days, with a modest upward bias rather than any meaningful correction. Dal prices should broadly track this firmness, with only limited scope for downside unless there is a rapid improvement in monsoon conditions or a sudden rise in market arrivals.