Black Gram Market: Urad Under Pressure but Poised for Gradual Recovery
Black gram (urad) prices in New Delhi stay pressured but limited supply and potential demand from dal mills point to a gradual recovery in June 2026.
Prices & Market Mood
In the New Delhi wholesale market, urad has been quoted around USD 92.77–95.12 per quintal, equivalent to roughly EUR 86–88 per quintal at current exchange rates. This range reflects a market that is soft but not in distress, with neither heavy liquidation nor aggressive stockbuilding by traders.
Elsewhere in India, select mandis have recently printed firm levels for black gram and urad dal, signalling that downside is limited where local demand is robust. For example, some northeastern mandis reported upper-band prices around INR 15,000 per quintal in early June, underscoring regional tightness despite the broader, slightly pressured tone.
Supply & Demand Dynamics
Current urad availability in the domestic market is described as "not excessive", pointing to a relatively balanced supply side. Stocks exist, but they are not large enough to trigger distress selling, which is why the recent price softness reflects demand hesitation rather than a structural surplus.
On the demand side, dal mills’ buying patterns are pivotal. Processors have recently slowed purchases of urad dal, mogar and gota, waiting for clearer retail off-take and potentially better procurement levels. Traders expect that once prices stabilise at the lower end of the current band, mills will resume buying to secure raw material for the coming months, supporting a mild recovery.
Fundamentals & Weather Context
Fundamentally, urad remains structurally important in India’s pulse basket, with limited scope for rapid supply expansion. Government stocks and imports provide some buffer, but the domestic crop and monsoon remain decisive for medium-term balance.
Weather signals for 2026 lean cautious. The India Meteorological Department projects the June–September southwest monsoon at about 90% of the long-period average, firmly in the "below normal" category, with particular concern about heatwaves and early-season deficits. This raises a medium-term risk of tighter pulse supplies and potentially higher prices later in the season if sowing or yields are hit.
In the near term, June is expected to see below-normal rainfall across much of India along with above-normal maximum temperatures, especially in several northern and central states. While urad-growing belts have not yet reported major weather stress, these conditions warrant close monitoring as kharif planting progresses.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Market participants generally anticipate that urad prices will stabilise and gradually recover as demand returns, assuming no sudden supply shock. The current downside appears limited by modest stocks and firm regional prices in some mandis, while upside is capped in the immediate term by cautious dal mill buying.
- For traders: Consider scaling into long positions on further dips towards the lower end of the New Delhi band, with a medium-term view tied to monsoon risks and revival of mill demand.
- For dal mills: Stagger procurement rather than waiting for significantly lower levels, as current prices already discount weak demand and could firm if retail offtake improves.
- For farmers and stockists: Avoid panic selling; with below-normal monsoon risk and limited inventories, holding moderate stocks into the later kharif period may offer better realisations.
3-Day Directional View (Key Markets, in EUR)
- New Delhi wholesale urad (whole): Stable to slightly firmer; expected to hover around EUR 86–88/qtl with mild upside if fresh mill buying appears.
- Eastern & Northeastern mandis (black gram/urd): Firm bias after recent high quotes; prices likely to remain well supported near current elevated levels.
- Overall India composite: Sideways to mildly bullish near term, with sentiment increasingly sensitive to monsoon progress and any policy or import signals.