📉 California Almond & Walnut Market – Strong Sales & Firm Prices Despite Smaller Crop 📉
📍 Almond shipments remain stable – Market prices rising amid speculation on 2025 crop size
February almond shipments totaled 97.5 thousand metric tons (214.9 million lbs.), a 2.8% decrease compared to February 2024. Despite the slight decline, the market remained highly active, with February sales reaching 220 million lbs., exceeding last year’s figures.
Walnut shipments, however, saw a significant drop, with Inshell shipments down 81.2% YoY and kernel shipments down 21.3% YoY.
📌 Key Market Drivers:
✔ Strong sales activity in February, leading to firm pricing.
✔ Almond market sold at 66.7%, with some packers reporting over 70% sales completion.
✔ Bloom performance mixed – speculation on 2.5 – 2.7 billion lbs. for the 2025 crop is supporting price increases.
✔ US Dollar weakness helped international buyers.
✔ Walnut supply tightens – inshell and pieces becoming harder to source.
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📈 Outlook:
With robust March shipment expectations and continued price firmness, the almond market remains strong, while the walnut market shows signs of supply constraints.
➡ Full details on market trends, price forecasts & strategic recommendations below! 🚀
📊 1. Market Overview: Prices & Developments
💰 Current Almond Prices (California, USD/lb FOB)
| Product | Price (USD/lb) | Change (M/M) |
|---|---|---|
| NPX 27/30 | 3.00 | ↗ +0.15 |
| NPX 20/22 | 3.15 | ↗ +0.15 |
| Ind Extra #1 25/27 | 2.96 | ↗ +0.16 |
| STD-5% | 2.80 | ↗ +0.15 |
📌 Market Trends:
- Almond kernel prices up 15 cents/lb, supported by strong February & early March sales.
- Inshell demand is strong, particularly from India & Europe.
- Walnut availability tightening, leading to price volatility.
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Factors
📦 Supply & Production
| Category | Thousand Metric Tons | Million lbs | Change (Y/Y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| February Almond Shipments | 97.5 | 214.9 | -2.8% |
| Year-to-Date Shipments (YTD) | 720.2 | 1,588 | -0.8% |
| Crop Receipts (Almonds) | 1,216 | 2,680 | +11.3% |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- Strong February sales totaled 220 million lbs., surpassing last year’s 214 million lbs.
- Industry now 66.7% sold for new crop & carry-in – some packers report over 70% sold.
- Walnut receipts at 598,221 tons, 11.8% below forecast and 23.4% lower than 2023.
🌦️ Weather & Bloom Update
- Nonpareil bloom rated average to below average, while Independence & Monterey performed well.
- Speculation on the 2025 crop size at 2.5 – 2.7 billion lbs., influencing price trends.
- If the crop is on the lower end of estimates, prices will remain firm or increase.
📈 Exchange Rate Developments
| Currency | Rate (USD) | Change (M/M) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇳 Indian Rupee | 86.50 | 🔻 -0.5% |
| 🇪🇺 Euro | 1.05 | 🔻 -1.0% |
📌 Market Impact:
- Weaker USD helped international buyers, boosting exports.
- European demand up despite currency fluctuations.
🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days)
📉 Expected Price Movements (FOB California, USD/lb)
| Product | Current Price | Forecast (3 Days) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| NPX 27/30 | 3.00 | 3.02 – 3.10 | ↗ Slightly rising |
| STD-5% | 2.80 | 2.82 – 2.88 | ↗ Increasing |
| Ind Extra #1 25/27 | 2.96 | 2.98 – 3.05 | ↗ Increasing |
📌 Key Factors:
- Strong March shipments expected, limiting stock availability.
- Speculation on 2025 crop size driving price strength.
⛅ 4. Weather Outlook (Next 14 Days)
📍 California (San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley)
📆 Forecast (14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 8–21°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: 10–40 mm.
- Possible Impact: Late bloom development in some areas.
📍 India (Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai)
📆 Forecast (14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 26–34°C.
- 🌧️ Dry weather → Boosting Inshell demand.
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🌎 Global Almond Stocks
| Season | Stocks (Mio. t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 1.65 | – |
| 2022/23 | 1.57 | 🔻 -4.8% |
| 2023/24 | 1.50 | 🔻 -4.4% |
| 2024/25 (Est.) | 1.45 | 🔻 -3.3% |
📌 Summary:
- Global stocks continue declining, which supports medium-term price stability.
- Walnut supply tightens, Inshell and pieces becoming scarce.
🔍 6. Conclusion & Market Recommendations
📌 Market Outlook
✔ Strong exports continue to support firm prices.
✔ Almond demand remains strong, especially for Inshell & kernels.
✔ Walnut supply is decreasing, making sourcing more difficult.
📌 Recommendations for Market Participants
📈 For Sellers (Growers, Exporters)
✅ Sell strategically as demand remains strong.
✅ Expect continued price strength due to smaller 2025 crop speculation.
✅ Walnut inventory tightening – price increases likely.
📉 For Buyers (Roasters, Traders)
✅ Secure Inshell supply before prices rise further.
✅ Watch bloom developments closely – pricing hinges on 2025 crop size.
✅ Lock in kernel purchases before Q2 demand pressure increases prices.
📅 Next Position Report: April 12, 2025
📈 Bloom Monitoring: March–April 2025
🚀 Stay informed with the latest market updates! 🚀
