📉 Rapeseed and Canola Under Pressure as Trade Disruptions Shake Markets
📍 Oilseed markets faced another challenging session, with rapeseed and canola struggling under mounting trade tensions and shifting global supply chains. While soybeans attempted a modest recovery, pressure from expanding Brazilian exports and demand shifts in China kept the market on edge. As geopolitical uncertainties grow, traders closely watch how key players adjust their buying strategies.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,011.25 | €340.52/t | -2.75 | -0.27% |
| July 2025 | 1,025.50 | €345.23/t | -3.00 | -0.29% |
| November 2025 | 1,015.50 | €342.10/t | -3.00 | -0.30% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 480.00 | -1.75 | -0.36% |
| August 2025 | 465.75 | -0.75 | -0.16% |
| November 2025 | 467.75 | -0.25 | -0.05% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 576.90 | €400/t | -14.10 | -2.44% |
| May 2025 | 590.90 | €409/t | -14.10 | -2.39% |
| July 2025 | 603.30 | €417/t | -14.50 | -2.40% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Trade Disruptions Impact Global Supply Chains 🌍
→ China’s trade actions against Canada sent shockwaves, forcing buyers to look for alternative suppliers.
→ Rapeseed and canola markets struggled as uncertainty loomed over export demand. - Brazil’s Soybean Export Boom Continues 🚢
→ Brazil’s harvest progress and record export pace are putting pressure on global soybean prices.
→ China is shifting purchases away from U.S. soybeans, raising questions about future demand patterns. - USDA WASDE Report Adjusts Global Supply Expectations 📊
→ Soybean stocks have been revised downward, reflecting stronger-than-expected processing demand in key markets.
→ Trade flows remain a major concern, with shifting alliances reshaping the global oilseed landscape.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Crop Conditions Improve with Rainfall
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Soil moisture improving, easing drought concerns.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate range, expected to stay stable.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued precipitation in key growing areas.
- 🚨 Impact: Could help stabilize crop yields and improve quality.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Pressure from trade disputes and demand shifts continues.
- Resistance Level: €490/t
- Support Level: €470/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €475 – €485/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Volatility remains as Brazilian exports expand and China reduces U.S. imports.
- Resistance Level: 1,030 ct/bu
- Support Level: 995 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,020 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Uncertainty continues to weigh on rapeseed and canola markets as trade tensions reshape supply chains.
- Soybeans struggle against strong Brazilian competition, with China reducing U.S. imports.
- Market volatility remains high, with traders watching for further geopolitical developments.
🔮 The market remains on edge – key factors to monitor include China’s evolving trade strategy and South American harvest progress.
