Cashew Market Steady as India Buys More Raw Nuts but Sells Fewer Kernels

India’s cashew market is currently characterised by rising raw nut imports, softer export demand for kernels and broadly stable prices supported by firm domestic consumption. Processors are well supplied with raw material, but weaker demand from key overseas buyers is weighing on export volumes and achieved kernel prices. India’s import appetite for raw cashew nuts (RCN) increased in the first half of 2026, with volumes up nearly 8% year on year, led by heavier buying from Tanzania, Nigeria, Ghana and Mozambique. At the same time, kernel export volumes fell by almost 10% and average realisations softened, as demand eased in several traditional destination markets, partly offset by better offtake into the Netherlands, Nepal and Bangladesh.

Prices

Kernel prices are broadly stable to slightly softer in export terms, reflecting weaker overseas demand but balanced by steady Indian domestic consumption and ample raw material supply. The average Indian export realisation in the first half of 2026 slipped to about USD 7,802 per tonne from around USD 8,347 per tonne a year earlier, indicating mild downward pressure on international prices.

Spot offers for conventional Indian kernel grades in late July translate roughly into the high EUR 6s per kg on an FCA/FOB basis for W320 and slightly lower for W450, with broken grades like LWP and SWP trading at noticeable discounts in the mid-EUR 4s–5s per kg range. Vietnamese origins remain closely aligned, while European FCA prices in the Netherlands continue to show the usual import-side premium for ready-at-warehouse material. Overall, the price structure remains relatively flat, without strong upward momentum.

Supply & Demand

Indian raw cashew nut imports reached 575,804 tonnes in January–June 2026, up 7.8% from 534,330 tonnes in the same period of 2025, with the average import price broadly stable at around USD 1,603 per tonne. Tanzania remained India’s leading supplier at 213,389 tonnes, followed by Nigeria with 141,738 tonnes (up 31.4% year on year) and Ghana with 90,374 tonnes. Imports from Mozambique nearly doubled to 35,486 tonnes, underscoring the growing role of East and Southern African origins.

Conversely, shipments from some West African origins shrank markedly, notably Togo, where volumes dropped to 11,245 tonnes from 70,884 tonnes, and Ivory Coast, where deliveries fell by 55.5% to 19,097 tonnes. On the demand side, India’s cashew kernel exports declined by 9.5% to 14,851 tonnes in the first half of 2026, with average export prices easing. The United Arab Emirates stayed the largest destination at 2,845 tonnes despite a strong annual decline, while shipments to Japan, Spain, Kuwait and Qatar also softened. The Netherlands emerged as a brighter spot with imports rising to 2,322 tonnes, and neighbouring markets like Nepal and Bangladesh showed strong percentage growth from a low base.

Domestic kernel demand in India remained steady, allowing local prices to hold broadly stable despite the increase in imported raw material and weaker export performance. This suggests that internal consumption is absorbing a significant part of the additional processing output, preventing a more pronounced correction in kernel valuations.

Fundamentals

The combination of higher RCN arrivals and softer export demand has shifted bargaining power slightly towards buyers in export markets, yet the absence of a demand shock at home keeps the market from sliding into oversupply. Indian processors benefit from diversified sourcing, with increased imports from Tanzania, Nigeria, Ghana and Mozambique offsetting declines from Togo and Ivory Coast, reducing origin-specific risks and supporting continuous plant utilisation.

At the same time, the fall in average kernel export realisations – from roughly USD 8,347 to USD 7,802 per tonne year on year – points to a market still in the process of rebalancing to a lower international price level. However, with the import cost of RCN broadly unchanged, margins for processors are being squeezed, which could limit the willingness to discount aggressively on kernels for long. The relative resilience of demand in Europe (especially the Netherlands) and in regional markets like Nepal and Bangladesh offers some relief and could set a floor for prices if global buying improves into the next quarter.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the coming weeks, the cashew market is likely to remain range-bound, shaped by ample raw nut availability in India, cautious overseas demand and firm domestic consumption. Any renewed pickup in orders from Middle Eastern and East Asian buyers would quickly tighten the balance, given processors’ need to protect margins in the face of stable RCN costs.

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Use the current stable, slightly soft kernel price environment to secure coverage for the next 2–3 months, focusing on benchmark grades such as W320 and W450. Consider staggering purchases to benefit from any further minor dips.
• Processors / exporters: Avoid deep discounts that undermine margins, as domestic Indian demand remains supportive. Prioritise value-focused destinations such as the Netherlands and South Asia, where import growth is more encouraging.
• Traders: Look for relative value between origins, with opportunities where Indian or Vietnamese offers diverge from historical spreads. Monitor shifts in West African RCN availability closely, as further supply-side disruptions there could firm kernel prices later in the season.

3-Day Directional Price View (Key Hubs)

• India – New Delhi (FOB kernels): Largely stable with a mild downward bias for export-focused contracts.
• Vietnam – Hanoi (FOB kernels): Stable; prices expected to track Indian trends with tight differentials.
• EU – Netherlands, Dordrecht (FCA kernels): Steady to marginally firmer, reflecting logistics and inventory holding costs rather than raw market tightness.