Cashew Market Tightens as West African Crop Winds Down

Global cashew supply is moving into a tighter phase as the West African harvest concludes, with raw cashew nut (RCN) prices staying firm and kernel prices stable despite softer demand in the US and EU. Buyers are being advised to extend coverage at least through Q1 2027 as limited RCN stocks and strong processing in Ivory Coast constrain future kernel availability. The market is currently balancing a very large West African crop against quality concerns, strong local processing and cautious downstream demand. Ivory Coast’s 2026 harvest is the second-largest on record, but weaker nut quality and smaller crops in Ghana are tightening the pool of top-grade material. At the same time, Vietnam’s kernel exports and EU import growth underline that structural demand remains solid, even if weekly offtake has slowed. Against this backdrop, kernel values look supported rather than explosive, with upside risk if buyers return more aggressively later in the year.

Prices

Raw cashew prices across West Africa remain firm as sellers resist discounting limited remaining stocks. Ghana-origin RCN is quoted around USD 1,450–1,550/tonne, Ivory Coast near USD 1,550/tonne, Burkina Faso about USD 1,420/tonne and Guinea-Bissau roughly USD 1,720/tonne, reflecting both origin differentials and quality perceptions.

Kernel demand from the US and EU softened during the week, but offer levels held steady because replacement costs are high and processors are reluctant to sell forward at lower prices. Vietnam-origin W240 kernels are quoted around USD 3.45–3.60/lb and W320 around USD 3.10–3.35/lb, consistent with recent Vietnamese price index data that show a firm but not spiking market and a widening premium for W240 over W320.

(USD figures converted at ~1.10 USD/EUR; export offers rounded from latest available quotes.)

Supply & Demand

Ivory Coast’s 2026 crop is estimated at 1.35–1.40 million tonnes, the second-largest on record. However, quality is weaker than in recent years, reducing the share of high-yielding RCN suitable for premium kernel grades. Ghana’s harvest is also smaller and of comparatively lower quality, tightening West Africa’s aggregate high-grade supply.

Domestic processing in Ivory Coast has expanded strongly, with processors purchasing more than 700,000 tonnes of RCN and expected to process over 600,000 tonnes. Seasonal exports are projected near 600,000 tonnes of raw nuts, with Vietnam taking about 70–75% and India 20–25% of these volumes, underscoring both countries’ dependence on West African raw material.

On the demand side, US and EU kernel buying slowed over the last week, reflecting cautious retail offtake and elevated price levels. Despite this, Vietnam’s kernel exports grew by 8.28% year-on-year in early July, while EU kernel imports surged by more than 20% in volume and nearly 40% in value in April, confirming that structural demand remains robust even as short-term consumption is uneven.

Fundamentals & Regional Dynamics

India’s raw cashew imports are expected to fall by about 100,000–150,000 tonnes this season due to lower shipments from Ivory Coast, Ghana and Togo. Imported RCN into India remains firm at around USD 1,400–1,450/tonne for 44-lb quality and USD 1,710–1,740/tonne for 52–53-lb quality, compressing processing margins and limiting India’s ability to discount kernels aggressively.

Vietnam’s trade performance remains solid: raw-cashew imports in the first half of July rose by 1.06% year-on-year, while kernel exports increased by 8.28%. Together with strong EU import growth, this highlights Vietnam’s role as the pivotal balancing origin, especially as Ivory Coast scales up kernel exports and cements its position as the second-largest exporter globally.

Current kernel price assessments from India, Vietnam and EU import hubs show broadly stable levels over recent days, with modest firming in some Indian grades and steady Vietnamese FOB offers. Recent market commentary from India also notes subdued domestic demand and selective export buying, which are preventing a sharper price rally despite higher raw material and processing costs.

Weather & Crop Outlook

With the main West African harvest largely complete, near-term weather has limited impact on the 2026 RCN supply already in the pipeline. Seasonal climate outlooks for July suggest a mixed pattern in West Africa under an emerging El Niño, but no acute, widespread stress for the recently harvested cashew belt.

Weather risks now shift toward late-season handling and storage conditions as well as upcoming Southern African and Asian crops. However, given substantial processed volumes already locked in by Ivorian plants and strong Vietnamese import flows, any incremental weather-related disruptions would mainly affect 2027 supply expectations rather than the current marketing year.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

Market experts expect global kernel supply in 2026/27 to remain below last season, while still potentially being the second-largest on record. This implies a fundamentally tight but not crisis-level balance, with firm raw nut prices underpinning kernel values and limiting downside risk.

• Short-term (next 4–6 weeks): Sideways-to-firm bias for standard kernels (W320, W240). Softer US/EU demand may cap sharp rallies, but tight high-quality RCN and strong Ivorian processing keep offers supported.
• Medium-term (Q4 2026–Q1 2027): Rising probability of higher kernel prices if buyers return more strongly once retail demand and promotional activity pick up, especially given expectations of lower overall kernel supply versus last season.
• Coverage strategy: Buyers are advised to secure cover at least through the end of Q1 2027, focusing on premium grades where quality issues in West Africa and India’s reduced RCN imports could tighten availability further.

Actionable guidance

• Industrial buyers (roasters, snack brands): Use current stable kernel offers to extend coverage into Q1 2027, prioritising W320/W240 and organic lines. Avoid excessive short positions given firm RCN and expanding West African local processing.
• Importers & traders (EU/US): Consider building incremental stocks from Vietnam and Ivory Coast while differentials remain moderate. Maintain flexibility on shipment timing to manage freight and logistics risks.
• Origin processors (West Africa, India, Vietnam): Protect margins by locking in forward kernel sales where possible at today’s levels. Given weaker spot demand, stagger offers to avoid overcommitting high-quality raw material too cheaply.

3-day directional price outlook (EUR)

• India – FOB New Delhi (W320, W240): Stable to slightly firm; strong RCN costs but subdued demand suggest a narrow range.
• Vietnam – FOB Hanoi (WW320, WW240): Largely sideways; recent data indicate flat offers with balanced trade and no immediate supply shock.
• EU – FCA Netherlands (WW320, pieces): Stable; ample warehouse stocks and steady import flows point to range-bound EU spot prices in the very short term.