Chickpeas: India Softens, Mexico Firms as Short-Term Weather Stays Supportive

Indian FOB chickpea prices edged lower this week while Mexican offers firmed, widening the spread between the two origins and mildly favouring India in export tenders. With no major supply shock or policy move in the last few days, trade is dominated by short-term positioning, currency moves and local demand trends rather than structural shifts. Export-grade kabuli from New Delhi has eased slightly despite broader firmness in India’s pulse complex, where tur and urad have rallied while gram (chana) remains under pressure. In Mexico, domestic food-security procurement programs and firm internal demand keep pulses relatively supported, even as broader agri-markets navigate tighter margins. Weather in key growing and trading hubs (New Delhi and central Mexico) is seasonally hot but not currently disruptive, pointing to mostly range-bound pricing into mid‑week.

Prices & Differentials

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR, current FOB indications translate roughly as follows:

• India maintains a clear price advantage over Mexico across calibres, despite modest softness in chickpea versus other pulses domestically.
• The India–Mexico spread on large kabuli (42‑44 count) is now roughly EUR 0.23/kg in favour of India, improving India’s competitiveness into Mediterranean and Middle Eastern demand centres.

Supply, Demand & Policy Signals

Indian pulses markets have recently seen a rebound in tur and urad prices, reflecting tightening supplies, while gram (chana) remains comparatively weaker. This divergence suggests that substitution into chickpeas for value-conscious buyers may persist, but without the sharp rallies seen in other pulses.

In Mexico, broader federal procurement programs aimed at buying staple crops from small farmers at fair prices have accumulated over 1.2 million tonnes of food grains and pulses since 2024, supporting minimum farm-gate returns. While chickpeas are a minor share, this policy floor limits downside for domestic pulse prices and underpins FOB offers.

Weather Watch: India & Mexico

New Delhi and the surrounding Indo‑Gangetic belt are currently under a hot pre‑monsoon pattern, with maximum temperatures forecast around 41–43°C over the next several days, after a brief spell of below‑normal days and scattered rainfall. These conditions are seasonally typical and not yet causing reported logistics or quality issues in stored chickpeas.

In major Mexican crop belts, no acute weather disruptions affecting pulse logistics have been flagged in the last three days in national market and produce updates; supply‑chain commentary has focused more on fruits and vegetables than on pulses. Overall, current weather patterns in both India and Mexico look neutral for short‑term chickpea price direction.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers (Mediterranean & Middle East): India’s discount of roughly EUR 0.20–0.25/kg versus Mexico on large kabuli sizes argues for favouring Indian origin in nearby tenders, while keeping a small optionality on Mexico for diversification.
• Indian Sellers: With chana still under relative pressure inside India’s pulse complex, rallies are likely to be capped unless there is a fresh weather or policy shock. Use any EUR 0.02–0.03/kg bounces to scale‑up export sales.
• Mexican Exporters: Firm domestic support and stronger internal programs suggest limited room for discounting. Focus on quality‑sensitive buyers willing to pay a premium over Indian origin rather than competing purely on price.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR, FOB)