Cinnamon FOB Prices Hold Firm in India, Soften Slightly in Vietnam

Indian and Vietnamese cinnamon prices are broadly steady with a mild downward bias on Vietnamese cassia, while Indian Ceylon and organic cassia continue to trade in a narrow range in late June 2026. Short‑term, ample near‑term supply and normal early‑monsoon weather keep upside contained, but any disruption in South Indian rainfall or logistics could quickly tighten premium grades. The cinnamon market remains price‑driven and highly competitive, with buyers carefully arbitraging between Indian Ceylon, Indian organic cassia and lower‑priced Vietnamese cassia. In India, the southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala, bringing seasonally heavy showers but no acute weather shock to spice belts so far, while overall rainfall over India is still tracking somewhat unevenly across regions. Vietnamese agri‑exports remain robust overall, but cinnamon faces only moderate export demand amid soft freight and stable container availability. Near‑term, prices look range‑bound with a slight soft tone on Vietnam FOBs and sideways bias on Indian quotes.

Prices & Short-Term Moves

All prices below are indicative FOB offers converted to EUR using ~1 USD = 0.92 EUR.

Indian Ceylon and organic cassia prices have been effectively flat for the past month, suggesting a balanced nearby physical market. At the same time, Vietnamese cassia grades show a shallow, broad-based easing, pointing to comfortable exportable supplies and only measured short-term demand.

Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers (IN, VN)

India (IN)

• Supply: Domestic cinnamon supply is supported by steady flows from South Indian growing areas into major trading hubs; trade listings indicate multiple suppliers and no acute tightness this week.
• Demand: Overall Indian spice demand remains firm, but recent cross‑commodity commentary points more to strength in cardamom and cumin than in cinnamon, implying cinnamon demand is steady rather than aggressively higher.
• Weather: The southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala and is bringing moderate to heavy rains across the state; forecasters highlight active rainfall over June 18–21 with continued showers into next week. Short‑range local forecasts show light to moderate rain with high humidity across Kerala’s spice belt, typical for this time of year.
• Impact: Current rainfall is beneficial for cinnamon trees and undergrowth moisture but may temporarily slow farm‑gate activities and transport in hill districts if heavier spells persist. So far, no major flood or landslide disruptions have been reported in key spice areas over the last three days.

Vietnam (VN)

• Macro export context: Vietnam’s overall exports have grown strongly in early 2026, with broad-based growth into multiple markets, indicating generally efficient logistics and export infrastructure.
• Spices context: While very recent public data focus more on rice, where export prices softened this week on weaker demand from the Philippines, traders report similar sentiment for some other agri‑commodities: buyers are price‑sensitive and seeking discounts for bulk purchases.
• Weather: No major, dated‑within‑3‑days alerts specifically target cinnamon provinces, and typical early‑wet‑season conditions prevail. With ports operating normally and no reported storm‑related shutdowns in the last few days, near‑term Vietnamese cinnamon supply to export channels appears unhampered.
• Impact: Combined with the slight softening in FOB offers, this points to comfortable stock levels and a mild seller‑driven competition for orders, especially in lower‑grade and broken material.

Fundamentals & Market Structure

• Global benchmark comparison: Recent international price intelligence for cinnamon exporters places India and Sri Lanka at higher unit values than Vietnam, confirming the observed premium for Ceylon and higher‑grade cassia versus Vietnamese bulk cassia.
• Product mix: India is currently more oriented to higher value Ceylon cinnamon and organic cassia products, while Vietnam is price‑competitive in splits, broken and cigarette grades. This differentiation is supporting a relatively firm floor under Indian prices, even as Vietnamese offers edge down.
• Cross‑commodity signals: Newsflow on Indian spices over the last three days has emphasised tightness in some segments like cardamom and firm underlying demand in cumin and chilli, suggesting end‑user offtake for spices in general remains robust despite some macro headwinds.
• Logistics & FX: There are no fresh, dated disruptions in Indian or Vietnamese ports; container availability appears normal and broader trade reports from both countries point to healthy import‑export activity. With the euro relatively stable against Asian currencies in recent days, the week‑on‑week changes in EUR terms essentially mirror the small USD‑denominated price moves.

3-Day Outlook & Trading Guidance

Weather Outlook (next 3 days, region-based)

• India – Kerala/Tamil Nadu cinnamon belt (Region: IN): Forecasts show continued monsoon activity with light to moderate, at times heavy, rainfall across Kerala through at least June 21, with high humidity and temperatures mostly in the mid‑20s to around 30°C. Agronomically positive, this could, however, cause short‑lived delays in transport and drying where rainfall peaks.
• Vietnam – Central & Northern cinnamon provinces (Region: VN): No major, dated‑within‑3‑days severe weather alerts have been issued for core cinnamon‑growing areas; typical early‑wet‑season showers and warm temperatures are expected, with no clear trigger for immediate harvest or logistics disruption.

Price Direction: 3-Day Regional View

• India (FOB New Delhi, Ceylon & organic cassia): Sideways bias. Given stable fundamentals and normal monsoon conditions, prices are likely to remain within a tight band over the next three days, with any adjustment limited to negotiation level rather than outright list changes.
• Vietnam (FOB Hanoi, cassia grades): Slightly soft tone. Comfortable export supply and cautious international buying suggest a mild downward drift is possible for bulk and broken grades, though moves are expected to be incremental rather than sharp.

Trading Recommendations (Short-Term)

• Buyers (EU, MENA, North America): For standard‑grade cassia, consider gradually increasing coverage from Vietnam over the coming week to capture the current soft undertone, focusing on splits and broken grades while maintaining quality specs.
• Premium buyers (food brands & blenders): For Ceylon and certified organic cassia from India, maintain hand‑to‑mouth to 1–2 month coverage. With prices flat and monsoon support positive for trees, there is no urgent need to chase volumes, but avoid becoming under‑covered ahead of any potential mid‑monsoon logistical hiccups.
• Origin sellers – India: Hold offers steady but be prepared for small tactical discounts for larger lots, particularly in cassia powder, to defend share against cheaper Vietnamese material.
• Origin sellers – Vietnam: Given the mild softening trend, focus on volume deals and flexible freight terms rather than headline price cuts; preserving floor levels is important as global buyers benchmark Vietnam against higher‑priced Indian and Sri Lankan origins.