Dried apricots edge higher as Malatya heads into hot, dry harvest window

Dried apricot prices for Turkish origin are firm to slightly higher, with EU FCA levels in the Netherlands up around EUR 0.10/100 kg week‑on‑week across main sizes, while Turkish FOB quotes remain broadly steady in EUR terms despite local TRY volatility. Weather in Malatya and central Anatolia is hot, sunny and stable, supporting a smooth start to harvest and keeping near‑term supply expectations comfortable. The market is transitioning from old to new crop with no major weather threat in the coming 3–5 days and expectations for a normal‑to‑good dried apricot crop of roughly 80,000–85,000 mt in Malatya this season. Exporters report limited carryover after a tight 2025 crop, so even with an improved harvest, suppliers are reluctant to discount. At the same time, a weak lira against the euro (around 53 TRY/EUR) cushions EUR‑denominated export offers and helps Turkish origin stay competitive on global markets.

Prices

EU warehouse prices (FCA Dordrecht) for Turkish dried apricots moved modestly higher this week, with most sizes gaining about EUR 0.10 per kg versus mid‑June levels, confirming a firm tone as buyers cover pre‑new‑crop needs. Industrial cubes also advanced, indicating broad support across the product range rather than a size‑specific squeeze.

In Poland, FCA Lodz Turkish size 8 remains around EUR 5.20/kg, broadly aligned with Dutch levels, suggesting no major regional arbitrage. Turkish FOB Malatya and Ankara offers—both sulphured and unsulphured—are relatively flat in TRY terms, and given the current exchange rate near 53 TRY per EUR, this translates into stable‑to‑slightly‑softer EUR/kg export parity compared with earlier in the season.

Supply & Demand

Malatya remains the dominant source for global dried apricots, supplying the majority of world trade, supported by large‑scale orchards and export‑oriented packers. Pre‑harvest assessments from industry sources indicate a potential dried output of about 80,000–85,000 mt for the 2026 crop, comfortably above last season’s frost‑affected volume but not a record.

However, export statistics earlier this year showed significantly lower year‑to‑date shipments compared with 2025 (roughly 26,500 t vs 69,000 t by early June), underlining how limited old‑crop stocks have been. Trade sources continue to stress the absence of meaningful carryover not only in Turkey but also in Central Asia and key consuming markets, so the new crop will largely be needed to rebuild pipelines rather than create surplus pressure.

On the demand side, structural consumption in the EU and Middle East remains solid, with buyers still cautious about over‑committing ahead of full harvest clarity after last year’s price spikes. At current FCA levels around EUR 6.0–6.6/kg for main sizes, Turkish origin remains price‑competitive versus alternative dried fruits and origins, especially with the sharply weakened lira helping exporters absorb some cost inflation in local currency.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

The short‑term weather outlook for the main apricot belt in Malatya is very favourable. Forecasts for 27–29 June call for plenty of sunshine with highs around 30–32°C and cool nights, ideal for final fruit development and the early stages of sun‑drying in orchards. Ankara and central Anatolia show similarly stable, dry conditions with daytime highs in the high‑20s to around 30°C and no significant rain risk.

This pattern reduces immediate concerns about pre‑harvest rain or hail damage and supports a timely start to picking and drying. Market participants expect fruit development to accelerate as temperatures stay elevated, which should gradually ease physical tightness once the first new‑crop volumes reach packers in July, provided there are no sudden storms in the coming weeks.

Fundamentals & FX

Fundamentally, the market is balancing a better 2026 crop outlook against the backdrop of depleted stocks and still‑elevated cost structures. Industry updates earlier this year already anticipated firm price trends through at least the first half of 2026 after the 2025 frost damage, and nothing in current data suggests a sharp reversal yet.

On the macro side, the Turkish lira continues to trade at historic lows versus the euro, with EUR/TRY currently near 53.1. This devaluation supports export competitiveness but also raises uncertainty around local input costs and growers’ willingness to sell if they expect further currency weakness. For EUR‑based buyers, the FX backdrop helps cap upside in euro‑terms for now, even as TRY‑denominated farm‑gate and labour costs trend higher.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Near‑term direction is mildly upward but constrained, as hot, dry weather and improving crop prospects counterweight extremely low stocks and steady demand. Prices in Europe are likely to stay within a narrow, firm band until concrete new‑crop quality and size distribution data emerge in July.

• Buy‑side (importers/packers): Consider covering at least 1–2 months of needs at current FCA levels for core sizes (No. 2–5), as upside risk from any weather shock still outweighs downside from a normal harvest.
• Sell‑side (exporters/producers): Maintain a cautious forward‑selling strategy; partial hedging at today’s EUR levels looks prudent, but keep volume in reserve until confirmation of actual dried yield.
• Industry users/retailers: Use current stability to lock in pricing for Q3 promotions but retain some flexibility for Q4 in case a larger crop brings incremental easing later in the season.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, directional)

• EU (FCA NL, TR origin, main sizes No. 2–5): ~EUR 6.1–6.4/kg; bias: steady to slightly firmer over the next 3 days.
• TR (FOB Malatya/Ankara, sulphured No. 2–5): roughly equivalent to low‑EUR 7s/kg at current FX; bias: steady, with offers closely tracking lira moves.
• CEE (FCA PL, TR size 8): ~EUR 5.2/kg; bias: steady, following Dutch and Turkish benchmarks.