Turkish Dried Apricots Edge Higher as Hot Weather Supports Firm Market

Turkish dried apricot prices are grinding higher, with modest week‑on‑week gains across key sizes and qualities. Export‑oriented FCA levels in Northwest Europe are firmer, while FOB Malatya/Ankara offers remain steady but well supported, reflecting tight seller ideas ahead of the new crop. The market tone is cautiously bullish. EU demand for fruits and nuts remains constructive within overall agri‑food trade, while buying interest for Malatya‑origin dried apricots stays strong. At origin, the recent switch from rain‑related crop concerns to hot, dry weather has eased immediate damage fears but increases the need for adequate irrigation. With limited old‑crop availability and buyers beginning to position for 2026/27 shipments, near‑term downside appears limited and short‑term corrections are likely to be shallow.

Prices & Spreads

Latest transactional indications (all in EUR) show a firming trend for Turkish origin dried apricots loaded ex‑warehouse Northwest Europe (Dordrecht):

At origin, unsulphured organic lines continue to command a significant premium, with quotes roughly EUR 1.5–2.0/kg above conventional counterparts, underscoring ongoing niche demand in the EU and high production costs for certified orchards in Malatya and surrounding basins.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Malatya remains the dominant global hub for dried apricots, providing the lion’s share of Turkey’s output and the bulk of world exports. Old‑crop stocks are reported limited after a tight 2025/26 season, with international commodity reports earlier this year highlighting high and firm price levels due to constrained supply.

On the demand side, EU trade data show that exports of fruits and nuts have been one of the few growing lines in recent agri‑food trade statistics, indicating resilient consumption and processing demand despite a soft macro backdrop. Local Turkish wholesale commentary also notes that demand for Malatya‑origin dried apricots in 2026 remains high, particularly from retailers, nut roasters and food manufacturers seeking reliable long‑term suppliers.

Competition from alternative dried fruit origins is present but not yet significantly eroding Turkey’s core market share in Europe. Some incremental shifts towards other origins were observed in earlier quarters due to high Turkish prices, but current spreads still broadly justify Malatya’s quality premium, especially in higher calibres and organic product.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Earlier this month, industry sources warned that persistent rains in Malatya were threatening the developing apricot crop, raising concerns over fruit drop and disease pressure. In the past few days, however, regional media report a marked shift to hot, dry conditions, with daytime temperatures climbing towards the mid‑30s °C and heat intensifying across several Malatya districts.

This weather change is broadly favourable for drying prospects and reduces immediate risks of further rain‑related damage, but rapidly rising temperatures also increase irrigation needs and can stress trees if water is insufficient. Local agronomic research highlights growing climate variability in Eastern Anatolia’s fruit basins, noting that both excessive rain and heat events are increasingly relevant risks for apricot production. Overall, the short‑term outlook has shifted from weather‑related downside risk to a more neutral‑to‑supportive stance for yields and quality.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Firm EU demand: EU exports of fruits and nuts have been expanding within the wider agri‑food complex, underscoring steady downstream demand for dried fruit ingredients and snacks.
• Limited old‑crop stocks: After prior frost‑related shortfalls and tight balances, old‑crop dried apricot availability in Malatya is thin, helping to underpin FOB offers despite the absence of sharp fresh rallies.
• High interest in Malatya origin: Turkish wholesale guidance stresses that buyers continue to prefer Malatya‑source product for both quality and continuity, even as they pay close attention to price differentials versus competing dried fruit categories.
• Macro & currency context: Broader Turkish fruit and nut exports, including to key destinations such as Russia and the EU, remain significant and provide a supportive export channel for dried apricots, with TRY volatility continuing to affect local pricing decisions.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Short‑term trading recommendations (next 1–3 weeks)

• EU buyers (industry/retail packs): Consider covering near‑term Q3 needs on current FCA levels around EUR 5.5–6.2/kg for conventional sizes 3–8, as the risk/reward tilts mildly towards further firmness if hot, dry weather persists in Malatya.
• Importers/wholesalers: Maintain balanced stocks but avoid aggressive destocking; use any minor dips triggered by currency moves to layer in additional volumes, especially premium sizes 0–2 and organic lines, where availability is most sensitive.
• Origin packers in Turkey: FOB offers can likely be held steady in the near term, with selective upside attempts justified if weather remains favourable and international demand stays robust.

3‑day directional price outlook (EUR, indicative)

• TR, Malatya/Ankara, FOB conventional dried apricots: Stable to slightly firm; base range for main sulphured/unsulphured No. 3–5 expected to hold around the current EUR 7.8–8.0/kg level.
• NL, Dordrecht, FCA Turkish origin dried apricots: Mildly firmer bias; Sizes 2–8 likely to trade in a EUR 5.5–6.2/kg band, with an upward tilt of up to EUR 0.05/kg on active enquiries.
• PL, Lodz, FCA industrial grade (No. 8): Stable to slightly firm; prices expected to hover just above EUR 5.2/kg, supported by demand from processors seeking competitively priced inputs.