Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as New-Crop Outlook Improves

Prices for Turkish dried apricots are broadly stable, with FOB Malatya offers for conventional whole fruit clustered around the upper single‑digit EUR/kg range and only modest movements in European FCA positions. With the 2026 harvest now underway and weather in Malatya hot and dry, nearby tightness from a largely sold‑out prior crop contrasts with more comfortable medium‑term supply expectations. After last season’s severe frost and minimal carryover, sellers in Malatya have been cautious, but recent reports point to a healthier 2026/27 crop and a calmer export pace. Stable FX volatility and high domestic inflation in Türkiye keep exporters focused on preserving EUR margins rather than chasing volume. Over the coming days, clear, warm conditions in Malatya should support drying quality, reinforcing steady price ideas rather than triggering short‑term corrections.

Prices

FOB Malatya quotations for conventional, sulphured and unsulphured whole dried apricots are holding in a narrow band around EUR 7.3–8.7/kg, with organic material at a 15–25% premium depending on size and specification. Export‑ready stock in Northwest Europe (FCA warehouses in the Netherlands and Poland) is trading at a visible discount to origin, around EUR 5.2–6.5/kg for mainstream sizes, reflecting the earlier intake of high‑priced crop and ongoing destocking.

External benchmarks confirm that Turkish apricot values remain historically elevated in 2026. Fresh and processed apricot prices in Türkiye are estimated around USD 1.63/kg ex‑farm in June, up more than 50% year‑on‑year, underlining the broader firmness in the value chain even before drying and processing margins are added. 

Supply & Demand

Türkiye remains the dominant player in global dried apricots, providing around 85% of world production, with Malatya alone accounting for roughly 95% of the country’s dried apricot output.  Local exporters emphasize direct relationships with farmers and year‑round inventory management, allowing them to offer product beyond the immediate post‑harvest window. 

Fundamental tightness stems from the severely reduced 2025 crop: industry reports highlight that Türkiye effectively had no 2025 dried apricot crop and relied on carryover from 2024/25, with the 2024/25 stock now largely sold out.  Exporters reported sharply lower shipments through early 2026, and negligible ending stocks are expected before the new crop fully enters commercial channels. 

Looking ahead, the demand side is mixed. Key destinations such as Russia, Germany and Middle Eastern markets continue to draw Turkish product, while high prices have encouraged some substitution by alternative origins and by other dried fruits.  The net result is a balanced to slightly tight nearby market, but with expectations of better availability into late Q3 and Q4 2026 as new‑crop volumes scale up. 

Fundamentals & Weather

Weather is currently supportive for both fresh harvest and drying in Malatya. Forecasts for 25–27 June indicate hot, dry, and predominantly sunny conditions, with daytime highs around 30–34°C and cool nights, ideal for sun‑drying and reducing disease pressure.  Turkish sources note that the main part of the 2026 apricot harvest is scheduled to begin around 20 June, aligning with this favorable weather window. 

Structurally, tree damage from the extreme cold in 2025 means a non‑negligible share of orchards has been lost permanently, with estimates that 20–25% of trees in parts of Malatya are either removed or non‑productive.  However, the absence of major frost during 2026 bloom and solid fruit set underpin expectations that 2026/27 dried apricot production could be more than 50% higher than the prior season, assuming no late weather shocks. 

Macroeconomic conditions in Türkiye also shape pricing. The Turkish lira has seen reduced short‑term volatility in recent months, while inflation remains high and policy rates elevated.  This encourages exporters to target stable EUR or USD price benchmarks rather than aggressive discounting in local currency, helping keep FOB levels firm even as physical availability improves.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next three days, stable, dry weather in Malatya is expected to support uninterrupted harvest and drying operations, with no immediate weather‑driven supply disruptions on the horizon.  In this context, the dried apricot market is likely to remain sideways, with only minor adjustments by size and quality as first larger 2026 lots are calibrated against buyers’ specifications.

• Importers / packers (EU, UK): Consider covering near‑term needs now while FCA Europe offers still reflect old‑crop intake costs and origin remains stable. Focus on securing key sizes (no. 1–4) and organic volumes, where structural tree losses could keep premiums elevated.
• Food manufacturers: Use the current sideways phase to lock in contracts for Q4 2026 and early 2027. Blending more economical sizes (no. 5–8) or diced product can partially offset firm headline prices without compromising functionality.
• Turkish exporters: With negligible carryover and a still‑uncertain effective crop size, maintain disciplined forward sales. Index contracts to EUR to mitigate domestic inflation and currency risk, and prioritize long‑standing counterparties.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Malatya FOB, standard sulphured whole (core sizes): Sideways in the very short term; trade expected to remain in roughly the current EUR 7.5–8.5/kg range.
• Malatya FOB, unsulphured & organic: Stable to slightly firmer, with premiums of about EUR 1.0–1.8/kg versus conventional likely to persist as buyers compete for limited certified volumes.
• NL / PL FCA stocks: Slight upward bias of up to ~1–2% possible as logistics and financing costs feed through, but ample warehouse inventory caps sharp moves.