Dried Apricots Hold Firm as Malatya Enters Critical Bloom Window

Turkish dried apricot prices remain historically high and mostly stable in mid‑March 2026, with only marginal FCA gains on selected industrial cubes in the EU. FOB Malatya offers for both sulphured and unsulphured fruit are flat compared with early March, reflecting an extremely tight 2025/26 supply but also buyer resistance at elevated levels. The market’s focus is now on short‑term weather in Malatya as orchards move from budding towards flowering, which will be decisive for 2026/27 crop expectations and forward price risk. The global dried apricot market continues to be dominated by the aftermath of the severe frost in Malatya in April 2025, which cut the Turkish 2025 crop to a fraction of normal output and slashed exports by more than 60% year‑on‑year in volume terms. Official Turkish university and export‑sector analyses highlight that export shipments between August 2025 and February 2026 fell to about 20,000 tons versus more than 55,000 tons a year earlier, while unit export prices jumped by nearly 50% compared with August 2024, underscoring the intensity of the supply shock. In parallel, international dried‑fruit industry briefings and trade sources stress that there will be insufficient carryover to comfortably bridge the market into the 2026 harvest, with Turkey’s 2025/26 dried‑apricot production estimated at barely 2,000 tons versus around 100,000 tons in a normal year. Against this background, Q1‑2026 price assessments from European foodservice and commodity analysts describe dried apricot prices as "high and firm" due to limited Malatya stocks, constrained export availability and persistent demand from the EU, US and other destinations.

Prices & Market Structure

Spot price snapshot (all prices in EUR/kg)

All listed prices are assumed to be in EUR/kg based on the underlying offer data; any external USD references from trade reports have been converted conceptually to an equivalent high‑single‑digit EUR/kg range for Malatya FOB grades, consistent with current offers. Overall sentiment across the Turkish dried apricot complex is firmly bullish on a structural level, with only minor day‑to‑day changes on EU industrial cube positions.

Supply & Demand Context

Turkey remains the price‑setting origin, accounting for around 85% of global dried apricot production in normal years, with Malatya as the core producing region. The April 11–12, 2025 frost in Malatya and surrounding areas caused catastrophic damage, with some academic and official assessments describing losses approaching 100% of the fresh apricot crop.

As a result, Turkish dried apricot exports and production in 2025/26 collapsed. University trade reports show that in August 2025, export volumes fell by over 60% year‑on‑year while export revenue dropped by about 43%, even as unit export prices increased by roughly 47% versus August 2024. International commodity analyses and dried‑fruit industry briefings confirm that carry‑over stocks from the previous large crop are being rapidly depleted and are unlikely to last comfortably until the 2026 harvest, with some forecasts suggesting Turkey’s 2025/26 dried‑apricot production at only about 2,000 tons.

Despite the supply shock, demand from Europe, North America and other traditional markets has remained resilient. Recent trade commentary from EU foodservice buyers still characterises dried apricot prices in Q1‑2026 as "high and firm" due to sustained demand and limited availability of Turkish origin, forcing some substitution but not fully displacing Turkish product. This backdrop explains why the price data for FOB Malatya and FCA EU‑hub positions in this report show stability rather than easing: buyers are reluctant to push prices higher, but sellers also see little incentive to discount scarce stock.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Production, stocks and exports

• INC and trade‑house analyses indicate a collapse of Turkish dried apricot production in 2025/26 to around 2,000 tons, compared with typical seasons above 100,000 tons.
• Carry‑over at the start of the current campaign is estimated around 50,000 tons but is projected to fall towards 1,000 tons by the end of 2025/26 if exports continue at current reduced rates.
• Export shipments between August 1, 2025 and February 28, 2026 reached only about 20,000 tons, roughly one‑third of the volume shipped in the same period a year earlier, confirming the tightness.

Demand and trade flows

• Europe (EU+UK) remains the dominant importer of Turkish dried apricots over a five‑year horizon, with stable long‑term demand in the bakery, snack and foodservice sectors.
• Despite higher prices, demand signals such as new Turkish‑origin dried apricot launches in US retail channels (e.g. a limited‑time unsweetened, unsulfured Turkish apricot snack) show that premium buyers are still willing to pay for quality product.
• Trade disruptions specific to individual markets (e.g. Turkey’s political trade measures with Israel) affect some bilateral flows but have limited impact on aggregate global dried apricot demand compared with the underlying supply shock.

Macro and competitive set

Broader EU food and agricultural trade continues to grow modestly, supporting steady demand for imported dried fruit, even as intra‑EU trade volumes have slightly softened. For dried fruit specifically, analysts note that some buyers are shifting volumes into alternative origins and products (e.g. figs, raisins, dates) where Turkey and competitors offer more attractive pricing, but this cannot fully replace Turkish dried apricots in most applications.

Weather Outlook – Malatya (TR) & Yield Risk

Weather in Malatya over the next three days (March 17–19, 2026) is forecast to be relatively mild, with daytime highs around 12–14°C and nighttime lows between 2–4°C. Conditions include sunshine today, increasing cloudiness tomorrow and light rain or drizzle on March 19.

These temperatures are above the critical thresholds that caused severe frost damage in April 2025, when repeated freezes around bloom led to widespread bud and flower loss. Current forecasts therefore imply low short‑term frost risk, which is modestly supportive for the 2026/27 crop outlook as trees move from budding towards flowering. However, the historical climate research for Malatya shows that late‑spring frosts remain a structural risk, so market participants will continue to monitor minimum temperatures closely over the coming 4–6 weeks.

Price Drivers – Summary

• Structural shortage: Catastrophic 2025 frost and minimal new‑crop production underpin high FOB Malatya and FCA EU prices across sulphured and unsulphured grades.
• Carry‑over drawdown: Remaining 2024 crop stocks are being used to meet current contracts, with forecasts pointing to very low residual inventories by late 2026 if demand holds.
• Firm external demand: EU and US buyers have accepted higher prices to secure core volumes, limiting downside even when spot demand softens temporarily.
• Weather‑linked uncertainty: Short‑term benign weather in Malatya reduces immediate frost risk, but the market retains a weather premium for the upcoming bloom and fruit‑set period.
• Limited substitution: Competing dried fruits absorb some demand, but Turkish dried apricots remain a unique product with limited one‑for‑one replacements, supporting price rigidity.

3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (TR & EU hubs)

Given the extremely tight supply situation and the absence of fresh bearish news, we expect dried apricot prices in Turkey and EU hubs to remain flat to slightly firmer over the next three days. Any sudden change in frost risk forecasts for Malatya would quickly translate into additional weather premium in forward discussions, but this is not currently visible in the short‑term outlook.

Trading Outlook – Key Takeaways

• Buyers (importers, packers, foodservice): Maintain coverage for Q2–Q3 2026 at current levels; avoid waiting for meaningful price corrections that are unlikely while Turkish supply remains structurally tight.
• Retail and brand owners: Consider gradual price adjustments and/or pack size optimisation to reflect sustained high input costs rather than expecting raw‑material relief in the near term.
• Industrial users: Secure critical specs (size 1–4, unsulphured and organic) early; these segments face the greatest scarcity and risk of last‑minute premiums.
• Turkish exporters: Focus on managing limited stocks, prioritising high‑margin and long‑term customers; avoid overcommitting ahead of clearer visibility on the 2026 bloom and fruit‑set.
• Speculative participants: With physical supply already constrained and prices historically high, the near‑term risk/reward for additional length is limited; weather‑driven spikes are possible but contingent on fresh frost events.