Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as New-Crop Harvest Edges Closer

Turkish dried apricot prices are broadly steady in mid‑June, with only marginal softening on selected sulphured sizes and no meaningful move yet for unsulphured or organic lines. Tight old‑crop availability and expectations for a healthier 2026 crop are keeping the market in wait‑and‑see mode as harvest is pushed slightly later. Exporters in Malatya and Ankara are quoting largely unchanged FOB levels versus early June, signalling a balanced spot market despite historically low carryover. Sunny, seasonally hot conditions in Malatya this week support fruit development after earlier hail episodes, while exporters report strong interest but limited willingness to commit to large forward volumes until more concrete yield numbers emerge. With Turkey still dominating global dried apricot supply and 2025 output severely constrained, new‑crop pricing will hinge on how quickly harvest normalises and how exporters manage scarce remaining old‑crop stocks.

Prices & Spreads

FOB Malatya/Ankara quotations in EUR (converted from current USD-level market indications where necessary) show a flat curve versus one week ago. Conventional unsulphured sizes are clustered around the high‑single‑digit EUR/kg level, while organic retains a premium of roughly EUR 1.3–1.8/kg. Sulphured grades remain slightly cheaper but have eased only a few euro‑cents on mid‑sizes.

In EU warehouses (e.g. Netherlands, Poland), FCA prices for Turkish dried apricots remain discounted versus FOB Turkey, with no. 5–8 sizes broadly around EUR 5.2–6.0/kg, reflecting logistics and stock already in place in Europe rather than weakness at origin.

Supply, Demand & New‑Crop Outlook

Turkey — particularly Malatya — continues to dominate global dried apricot supply, accounting for the majority of world production and exports. Export data up to May indicate that 2025‑crop exports were dramatically lower than normal and that Turkey has effectively sold out of that crop, with negligible carryover now reported in origin and consuming countries.

For the 2026 crop, industry sources report that the bloom in Malatya this spring was largely frost‑free, allowing a clearer assessment of tree health after the extreme cold damage in 2025. Nonetheless, a material share of orchards is still considered lost or severely weakened, implying that potential production, while improved on last year, may remain structurally below historical highs.

Market commentary this week highlights slight delays to the start of harvest due to earlier cool conditions and some localised hail, with fresh table apricot picking now expected only towards the end of June and drying fruit following thereafter. This minor shift tightens nearby availability further, explaining why origin prices have not softened despite expectations in some importing markets for cheaper new‑crop offers.

Weather & Growing Conditions (TR)

Short‑term weather in Malatya is supportive of fruit sizing and sugar accumulation: forecasts for 18–20 June call for sunny, dry conditions with daytime highs around 31–33°C and lows 15–18°C. These stable, warm days follow earlier hail in parts of the province in late April and again in some districts last weekend, which caused localised damage but did not fundamentally alter overall crop prospects according to current assessments.

Ankara’s apricot‑growing basins face a slightly more unsettled pattern, with thunderstorms and cooler highs around 24–30°C in the coming two days before returning to more seasonable, partly sunny weather. At this stage, no major additional weather threat is in the 3‑day outlook, so the focus remains on how much fruit the surviving trees can carry rather than on immediate climatic risk.

Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

Fundamentally, the market is transitioning between a historically tight old‑crop situation and a cautiously optimistic but still uncertain new‑crop outlook. Exporters report that there have been virtually no offers from Malatya in recent weeks as stocks ran out and sellers held back ahead of harvest. This lack of liquidity underpins current price stability even as buyers resist paying further premiums.

Downstream, European demand is described as selective rather than aggressive. Importers are covering near‑term needs from existing FCA stocks in the EU while waiting for clearer new‑crop pricing and quality indications. Multiple Turkish exporters emphasise their organic and natural ranges from Malatya, hinting at ongoing structural growth in higher‑value segments, even if short‑term volumes are constrained.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Trading recommendations

• Buyers with Q3 needs: Consider securing a portion of coverage now at current FOB levels, especially for organic and large unsulphured sizes, given negligible carryover and only gradual recovery in orchard capacity.
• Short‑term spot users: Utilise FCA stocks in Europe where possible and avoid over‑committing before first concrete new‑crop offers and quality samples arrive from Malatya in late June/early July.
• Exporters in Turkey: Maintain offer discipline on premium grades; any early discounts should be targeted at smaller or lower‑spec lots to preserve overall price structure ahead of full harvest.

3‑day directional price indication (EUR)

• FOB Malatya – unsulphured no. 1–4: 8.0–8.8 EUR/kg, bias: sideways next 3 days (tight supply offsets harvest expectations).
• FOB Malatya/Ankara – sulphured no. 1–4: 8.1–8.6 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to very slightly softer on mid‑sizes if any last‑minute stock emerges.
• Organic unsulphured (TR origin, FOB): 9.3–10.4 EUR/kg, bias: firm/sideways with very limited availability and solid niche demand.