Dried apricot prices in Türkiye remain firm with a mild upward bias on sulphured grades, while unsulphured and organic material are stable at historically high levels. Tight Malatya stocks after last year’s frost, steady EU demand and a still‑uncertain new‑crop outlook are preventing any meaningful price correction.
Export activity is cautious after the Ramadan period, with buyers largely covering nearby needs and avoiding aggressive forward purchases. Market attention is focused on April weather in Malatya, where orchards are in a sensitive bloom/budding phase following last year’s severe frost damage. Early official commentary points to a recovering crop and expectations for good quality fruit, but traders remain wary of further cold snaps. In this environment, near‑term price risks remain skewed to the upside, especially for sulphured and higher‑quality unsulphured sizes.
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📈 Prices & Short-Term Trend
Fresh price indications for Turkish-origin dried apricots show a broadly steady market versus mid-March, at elevated absolute levels. FOB Malatya quotes for conventional unsulphured material cluster around EUR 7.80–8.65/kg for no.5–2, with higher grades no.1–3 near EUR 7.90–8.55/kg, and organic equivalents maintaining a clear premium at roughly EUR 9.30–10.35/kg.
Recent FCA Europe prices for Turkish diced and cube products remain flat over the last week: offers in the Netherlands are broadly in a EUR 5.57–6.50/kg range for most cube sizes, while Polish TR-1123 grade material is steady close to EUR 5.15/kg. These levels are consistent with Q1‑2026 assessments describing dried apricot prices as “high and firm” on the back of limited Malatya stocks and constrained export availability.
| Product | Grade / Type | Location & Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Very Short-Term Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried apricots | No.1 unsulphured | Malatya, FOB | ≈ 8.55 | Firm, high |
| Dried apricots | No.2 unsulphured | Malatya, FOB | ≈ 8.65 | Firm, high |
| Dried apricots | No.5 unsulphured | Malatya, FOB | ≈ 7.80 | Stable |
| Dried apricots | No.4 sulphured | Malatya, FOB | ≈ 8.20 | Slightly firmer |
| Dried apricots | Cubes (various) | NL, FCA | ≈ 5.6–6.5 | Sideways |
🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather
The fundamental backdrop is still dominated by the severe frost in Malatya in April 2025, which slashed the Turkish dried apricot crop and reduced exports by more than 60% year-on-year, leaving global end‑users heavily dependent on limited carry-over stocks. Despite this, international demand from the EU, UK and other key destinations has remained resilient, underpinning prices despite slower spot trade during religious holidays.
For the 2026 crop, Malatya orchards entered spring with an improved condition versus last year. Local agricultural authorities report that trees have recovered structurally from the 2025 frost, and early budding and flowering suggest potential for a high‑quality harvest if weather remains cooperative. However, recent reports highlight that Turkish dried apricot prices are still being supported by ongoing concerns over cool, unsettled April weather in Malatya, with exporters closely monitoring any cold fronts that could hit sensitive blossoms.
🌤 Malatya Weather Outlook (Next Few Days)
Short-range forecasts for Eastern Türkiye indicate a continuation of relatively cool, variable conditions over the coming days, with night temperatures hovering close to single‑digit °C in key apricot zones and occasional showers. While no widespread hard frost is currently indicated in the immediate 3‑day window, the combination of damp and cool weather during blossom and early fruit set maintains agronomic risk and keeps market participants cautious about potential disease pressure or localized cold damage.
📊 Market Fundamentals & External Drivers
Inventory levels in Malatya remain tight after the sharply reduced 2025 crop and a season of constrained export flows, which saw buyers increasingly diversify towards Central Asian origins such as Uzbekistan and China. This scarcity, combined with still‑healthy EU demand, has preserved a relatively steep price structure between low and high grades as well as between conventional and organic product.
Macro‑financial conditions also play a role: elevated domestic inflation and a volatile Turkish lira have complicated export pricing strategies and hedging, even as analysis suggests that exchange‑rate movements can offer both challenges and opportunities for Turkish agri‑food exporters. For now, most dried apricot contracts are quoted and negotiated in hard currencies, but exporters need to price in rising local production and labour costs, which limits room for significant EUR price reductions even if new‑crop prospects improve.
📆 Trading Outlook & Price Direction (3–5 Days)
- Price bias: Firm to slightly higher in EUR over the next few days, particularly for sulphured grades and well‑colored unsulphured sizes, as weather and supply uncertainty outweigh modest demand.
- Buyers (importers/packers): Consider covering short-term needs now for core sizes (no.2–5, both sulphured and unsulphured), while keeping some flexibility for additional coverage once weather risk in Malatya subsides later in April.
- Sellers (exporters/processors): Maintain offer discipline on higher-quality and organic lots; limited stocks and high replacement costs argue against discounting, but be ready to conclude on nearby business to manage liquidity.
- Industry users (confectionery, bakery, mixes): Evaluate partial reformulations or strategic origin diversification (Central Asia, limited EU sources) to mitigate potential further upside in Turkish prices if any new weather event hits bloom.
📍 3-Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Directional)
| Region / Market | Product / Grade | Current Indication (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye – Malatya (FOB) | Dried apricots, unsulphured no.2–5 | ≈ 7.80–8.65 | Sideways to slightly up |
| Türkiye – Malatya (FOB) | Dried apricots, sulphured no.2–6 | ≈ 7.80–8.50 | Slight upward bias |
| EU – NL (FCA Dordrecht) | Dried apricots cubes (Turkish origin) | ≈ 5.6–6.5 | Stable |
| EU – PL (FCA Łódź) | Dried apricots TR-1123 | ≈ 5.15 | Stable |
Given persistent supply tightness and ongoing weather vigilance in Malatya, any confirmed frost or disease impact on the 2026 crop later this month would likely translate rapidly into additional EUR price strength, especially for premium grades.
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