Feed Demand Lifts Pearl Millet Prices Despite Heavy New-Crop Arrivals
Pearl millet (bajra) prices firm in northern India as strong feed and stockist demand offsets heavy new-crop arrivals and expectations of a much larger 2026 crop.
Prices
In northern India, new-crop bajra is reported around ₹2,250–2,280 per quintal in some markets, with other locations in Rajasthan, Haryana and neighbouring states trading closer to ₹2,330–2,400 per quintal. The spread reflects local quality, logistics and nearby demand from feed mills and traders.
Recent mandi data for Rajasthan and Haryana broadly align with this recovery pattern, showing typical wholesale levels a little above ₹2,250 per quintal in many centres, but still below the current MSP. This underperformance versus support prices is encouraging feed substitution in favour of bajra, helping to absorb arrivals that are increasing as harvesting progresses through October.
Supply & Demand Balance
Harvesting is well underway in Rajasthan and Haryana, with additional supplies expected shortly from Uttar Pradesh. Market arrivals have increased, yet buyers remain active because bajra is priced competitively against alternative feed ingredients such as maize and some oilseed meals.
The current marketing season is characterised by a clear shift in demand towards industrial feed uses. Poultry and cattle-feed manufacturers are reportedly stepping up purchases, while stockists are adding to inventories, anticipating stronger feed consumption in the coming months. This combination has turned last month’s price weakness into a moderate recovery, despite the seasonal supply pressure.
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Fundamentals and Crop Outlook
The 2026 bajra crop is preliminarily pegged around 16 million tonnes, sharply higher than last year’s 12–12.5 million tonnes. If realised, this increase of roughly one-third will materially expand domestic availability, especially when concentrated in the major producing belt of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana.
Such a sizeable harvest is likely to act as a ceiling on sustained price rallies. While the current firmness is driven by short-term feed demand and restocking, the market is already factoring in the prospect of abundant supplies later in the season. As more northern and central Indian states complete harvest, the bargaining power of buyers could strengthen unless feed demand accelerates further or weather problems emerge.
International Price Signals
Export-oriented millet markets show a mildly supportive tone, consistent with the strengthening seen in Indian bajra. In the Black Sea region, Ukrainian yellow millet seeds (hulled, FOB Odesa) are quoted at EUR 0.307/kg, up from EUR 0.295/kg earlier in October, signalling firmer export interest.
For higher-value segments, Ukrainian hulled millet kernels at 98% purity (FCA Odesa) remain steady at EUR 0.61/kg, while organic 99% purity kernels hold at EUR 1.20/kg. Chinese hulled yellow millet kernels (FOB Beijing) trade at EUR 0.86/kg for conventional and EUR 0.94/kg for organic qualities, with only marginal recent adjustments. This overall stability, with a slight upward bias in key origins, supports the view that international demand for feed and birdseed use remains solid.
Weather and Harvest Conditions
Current market dynamics in India are driven more by structural feed demand and harvest scale than by short-term weather disruptions. The active harvest in Rajasthan and Haryana indicates that recent weather has generally allowed field work and transport to proceed without major delays.
Looking ahead through mid-October, no widespread reports suggest significant yield losses or quality downgrades for bajra in the northern belt. As a result, the supply side risk currently appears skewed towards a larger realised crop rather than production shortfalls, reinforcing expectations of plentiful availability later in the season.
Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)
- Producers: Consider staggered sales rather than aggressive front-loaded selling, as feed demand and stockist interest are still absorbing arrivals at firm price levels. However, be mindful that a very large harvest could cap upside later in the season.
- Feed manufacturers: Current bajra prices remain discount to the MSP and are competitive versus alternative grains. This favours locking in nearby coverage for poultry and cattle rations while monitoring any further harvest-driven dip for incremental purchases.
- Traders/stockists: Existing long positions are supported by strong feed buying, but the estimated 16-million-tonne crop argues for disciplined risk management. Target moderate basis gains and be cautious about carrying heavy stocks too far into the post-harvest period.
Short-Term Price Indications (3-Day View)
| Market / Product | Term | Recent EUR price | 3-day directional outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| UA Odesa – Millet seeds, hulled, yellow | FOB | EUR 0.307/kg | Slightly firm to steady; supported by export and feed demand |
| UA Odesa – Millet seeds, inshell, yellow (98%) | FCA | EUR 0.34/kg | Steady bias; limited near-term downside |
| UA Odesa – Millet kernels, hulled, yellow (98%) | FCA | EUR 0.61/kg | Stable; niche demand and tight specs underpin values |
| CN Beijing – Millet kernels, hulled, yellow (99.95%) | FOB | EUR 0.86/kg | Stable; no major change expected short term |
In India’s physical markets, bajra prices are expected to stay broadly firm over the next few days as active feed buying and stockist demand counterbalance ongoing new-crop arrivals. Any rapid surge in supplies from late-harvesting regions could temporarily cap further gains.