Feed Oat Prices Flat in Germany and Ukraine as Weather Stays Crop‑Friendly

Feed oat prices in Germany and Ukraine are essentially flat, with local cash markets barely reacting to the recent rebound in international oat futures. Weather in both regions looks broadly supportive for developing crops, limiting near‑term upside for feed values. Internationally, oat futures have bounced from recent lows but remain sharply below last year. In Germany and the wider EU, feed oat indices are stable, signalling comfortable supply relative to demand. In Ukraine, Black Sea logistics remain a structural risk, yet no fresh disruptions have emerged in the last few days. With benign short‑term weather forecasts in northern Germany and around Odesa, and no major new fundamental shock, local feed oat prices are likely to stay rangebound into early next week.

Prices

Benchmark international oat prices rebounded in early July, with one major index showing oats at about 281 USD/bu on 2 July, up around 3.5% day‑on‑day but still almost 30% below year‑ago levels. This futures move has so far not translated into higher cash prices in continental Europe, where feed oat indications around 177 EUR/t remained steady through the end of June.

Against this backdrop, current German feed oat offers near the north‑west coast sit practically unchanged versus the past two weeks, and Ukrainian feed oat quotes ex‑Odesa also show no visible week‑on‑week movement. Both regions are trading at a discount to global oat values once freight and quality are factored in, keeping them competitive in regional feed rations.

Supply & Demand

EU oat balances look comfortable at the start of the 2026/27 marketing year. The latest official outlook points to EU production just below the previous season but with ending stocks remaining historically high after two good harvests, keeping total supply ample versus expected feed and food use. This underpins the current price stability in Germany, where there is no immediate sign of deficit in feed oats relative to other coarse grains.

Globally, the recent uptick in futures appears more like a technical rebound from multi‑week lows than a response to a new supply shock. A recent market note highlighted that CBOT oat contracts had recovered modestly while EU cash prices stayed flat, implying that physical demand has not tightened materially. For Ukraine, prior reports indicated a sharp drop in oat exports earlier in 2026 but with relatively stable bid prices, reflecting reduced external demand and ongoing competition from barley and maize in feed rations.

Weather Impact: DE & UA

In northern Germany near Bremen—representative for Lower Saxony’s oat belt—short‑term forecasts point to moderate temperatures around 20–22 °C with scattered showers and no extreme heat through the weekend. This pattern is broadly favourable for late vegetative and early grain‑filling stages, supporting yield potential and reducing immediate weather‑driven price risk for feed oats.

Around Odesa in southern Ukraine, current publicly available forecasts for early July show seasonally warm, mostly dry to intermittently showery conditions without prolonged heatwaves or flooding alerts. (This is inferred from regional Black Sea forecast patterns; no conflicting data from the last three days were identified.) In combination with already reduced oat export flows, this suggests a steady supply outlook from Ukraine in the very near term, unless geopolitical risks around Black Sea logistics suddenly escalate.

Fundamentals & Competitiveness

• Relative pricing: In Germany, recent comparisons of cereal prices show oats around 0.22 EUR/kg at consumer/reference level, close to wheat and above rye, indicating oats remain a mid‑range feed option in terms of cost per energy unit.
• Feed demand: Stable EU livestock margins and modest herd adjustments mean feed demand is not surging. Recent regional market reports emphasize that oats are competing mainly with barley and corn, with no strong shift in rations over the last week.
• Stocks: EU oat ending stocks are projected to stay well above pre‑2024 levels, absorbing moderate weather variability without major price spikes, provided harvest weather remains mostly normal.

Trading Outlook (next 3–5 days)

• For German buyers (DE): With local EXW feed oat prices flat and short‑term weather crop‑friendly, nearby coverage can be taken hand‑to‑mouth. Consider modest additional coverage only if CBOT oats extend gains or if local harvest pressure appears weaker than expected.
• For Ukrainian sellers (UA): FCA Odesa feed oat prices remain stable despite subdued export interest. Maintain offers but be flexible on small discounts for volume parcels if logistics or freight tighten; no clear signal yet to push for higher prices in the very short term.
• For traders/arbitrageurs: The spread between relatively cheap EU cash oats and rebounding futures suggests limited near‑term upside in physicals. Focus on basis trading and freight/logistics opportunities rather than outright long positions in local oats.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Germany (DE, NW EXW feed oats): 3‑day outlook: Sideways. Weather benign, ample regional supply, no new demand shock.
• Ukraine (UA, FCA Odesa feed oats): 3‑day outlook: Sideways to slightly softer if export demand remains muted; geopolitical risk remains a wild card but no fresh trigger in the last few days.