Firm Bajra Demand Holds Millet Prices Steady as New Crop Arrives

Bajra (pearl millet) prices are expected to remain relatively firm, with active feed and traditional consumption supporting the market even as fresh crop arrivals increase in India. Strong buying interest is offsetting the pressure from additional supplies, suggesting a broadly stable price environment with only limited upside. The current millet market is shaped by a tug-of-war between robust demand from feed manufacturers and households on one side and rising arrivals from the new Indian crop on the other. Domestic mandi prices have inched higher over the past week, confirming that buyers remain willing to lift volumes at current levels. Internationally, export offers from China and Ukraine show a mild firming bias, especially for higher-quality and organic kernels. Overall, the market is moving into the main marketing season with prices underpinned by demand but capped by ample supply and comfortable stocks.

Prices

Indian mandi data indicate a steady to slightly firmer bajra price trend in early October. The nationwide median mandi price moved from around ₹2,300–2,330 per quintal in early October to roughly ₹2,350–2,360 per quintal by 12–14 October, signalling that new-crop pressure is being largely absorbed by demand.

Export quotations in EUR show modest firmness compared with late September. In China (Beijing, FOB), hulled yellow millet kernels 99.95% purity, conventional, are currently indicated at 0.88 EUR/mt, with organic 99.90% purity at 0.96 EUR/mt, both slightly above or in line with levels seen in late September. From Ukraine (Odesa), hulled yellow millet seeds FOB are quoted at 0.307 EUR/mt, up from 0.295 EUR/mt on 2 October, while inshell yellow and red seeds FCA Odesa have edged to 0.34–0.35 EUR/mt from 0.33–0.34 EUR/mt at the start of the month.

Supply & Demand

In India, trade participants describe bajra prices as "relatively firm" as of 15 October 2026, with demand from feed manufacturers and traditional food channels remaining the key pillar of support. Traders are closely watching the pace of arrivals and purchase activity to determine whether this firmness can persist as more of the new crop reaches markets.

Recent commentary highlights strong feed demand and stockist interest in northern India, where bajra is currently competitively priced against alternative coarse grains such as maize and some oilseed meals. Despite increased arrivals, buyers remain active, indicating that consumption and feed rations can absorb the additional volume without triggering a sharp price correction.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, India is entering the new marketing year with comfortable, though not burdensome, millet stocks. Official projections point to a sizeable 2026/27 millet harvest with total consumption (feed plus food) expected to grow modestly, keeping the market well supplied but still reliant on domestic demand as exports remain minimal.

Weather during the late monsoon and early rabi transition has been generally favourable across major bajra-growing belts in north-western and central India, supporting yield prospects and underpinning expectations of a larger crop. In the short term, no major weather disruptions are visible that could significantly alter production or quality expectations for the current season.

Outlook & Trading Pointers

Market sentiment for the coming weeks is broadly stable. Firm underlying demand suggests that bajra prices are more likely to trade sideways with a mild upward bias in key consuming centres, while the risk of a sharp rally is capped by increasing arrivals and good crop prospects.

• Feed manufacturers: Consider covering nearby requirements on dips, as current levels remain competitive versus maize and other coarse grains, but avoid overextending coverage given sizeable incoming supplies.
• Traders and stockists: Maintain moderate long positions where local mandi prices track the national median; focus on basis opportunities between producing states and deficit urban markets.
• Exporters: Chinese and Ukrainian offers show mild firmness; locking in volumes on current quotes may be prudent, but hedging with flexible shipment and quality options is advisable.

3-Day Directional Price Indication

• India domestic mandis (bajra): Slightly firm to stable, with median prices expected to hover around recent levels as arrivals and demand remain well balanced.
• FOB China (Beijing) hulled kernels: Stable to marginally firm around current EUR quotations amid steady international interest and limited immediate supply pressure.
• Ukraine (Odesa) seeds and kernels: Mostly stable, with a slight firm tone on inshell seeds given incremental price gains seen in early October.