Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as Buyers Eye New-Crop Signals

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding broadly stable in mid‑May, with both sulphured and unsulphured grades trading in a tight range and organic material maintaining a clear premium. Weather in Malatya and Ankara is currently cool with scattered showers but without acute frost risk, keeping short‑term supply expectations steady. Exporters and importers remain focused on currency moves and early indications for the 2026/27 crop rather than immediate spot tightness. Dried apricots from Türkiye continue to anchor global pricing thanks to the country’s dominant share in world production and exports, with Malatya at the core of supply. Recent export data point to a still‑healthy trade flow from the region, while multiple packers and exporters report year‑round availability supported by cold‑storage and integrated processing capacity. For now, stable farm‑gate conditions and moderate spring weather argue for a sideways short‑term price view, though buyers remain alert to currency volatility and any late‑spring weather surprises.

Prices & Spreads

FOB Malatya and Ankara offers for Turkish dried apricots are flat versus last week, with virtually no movement across the main size curve. Organic, unsulphured product continues to command a premium of roughly EUR 1.40–1.80/kg over conventional equivalents, reflecting certification and lower availability. Sulphured material trades at a discount to natural fruit but remains tightly clustered by size, indicating balanced demand across the spectrum.

In European warehouses (FCA Netherlands/Poland), Turkish‑origin cubes and smaller industrial cuts trade at a noticeable discount to FOB whole fruit, reflecting lower processing premiums and strong competition among importers. These FCA prices, converted into EUR, sit broadly in the mid‑single‑digit range per kg, implying a relatively narrow arbitrage window back to origin once logistics and margins are included.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey retains a dominant position in global dried apricot supply, accounting for roughly 80–85% of world production, with Malatya often described as the world capital of apricots. Local sources emphasize extensive processing and cold‑storage capacity, enabling year‑round shipments regardless of harvest timing.

Recent trade statistics show Malatya’s dried apricot exports exceeding USD 20 million in March 2026 alone, on shipments of more than 2,400 tonnes. This underlines continued strong international demand into key markets in Europe, North America, and the Middle East, supported by multiple export‑oriented packers and trading houses headquartered in the region.

On the demand side, importers report steady offtake into retail and food‑manufacturing channels, with some substitution toward value formats such as diced and cubes in price‑sensitive segments. Organic volumes remain relatively small but strategically important, with EU and USDA certification premiums clearly visible in export offers.

Fundamentals & Weather

Structural fundamentals continue to favor a tight but not squeezed market. Investment‑promotion materials and technical studies consistently highlight that Malatya alone supplies over half of Türkiye’s fresh apricots and a large majority of its dried output. Historical analysis points to climate‑related yield volatility, particularly from late‑spring frosts, as the main driver of year‑to‑year swings in available volume and pricing.

For the immediate outlook, 3‑day forecasts for Malatya indicate cool, partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers and highs in the 17–21°C range, while Ankara sees a mix of clouds, showers, and brief thunderstorms with similar temperatures. These patterns are seasonally normal and do not currently suggest acute frost or heat‑stress risks for orchards or drying operations.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3 Days, TR)

• Malatya – FOB whole fruit (sulphured & unsulphured): Sideways bias. Stable weather and ongoing export flow argue for prices to remain in their present band over the next 3 days, with any moves likely limited to normal bid‑offer noise.
• Ankara – FOB processed/sized fruit: Also broadly stable. Local showers may cause minor logistical delays but are not expected to affect available stocks or immediate offer levels.
• TR to EU – FCA warehouse positions: Slightly easier tone as inventory in Dutch and Polish hubs appears adequate; modest discounting on cubes and industrial grades may persist but without sharp price breaks.

Trading Recommendations

• Importers / industrial users: Consider covering near‑term needs at current levels, especially for organic and preferred sizes, as present premiums are historically typical and there is no strong signal of imminent downside in origin prices.
• Retail packers: Use the current calm market to optimize size mix and packaging formats; evaluate switching some volumes to diced/cubes where FCA discounts versus whole fruit remain attractive.
• Producers / exporters in TR: Maintain offer discipline on higher‑grade unsulphured and organic product, where demand remains resilient. Monitor TRY–EUR moves closely, as currency shifts remain a key lever for export competitiveness and margin protection.