Turkish Dried Apricots Stay Firm as Malatya Weather Turns Critical

Turkey’s dried apricot market remains fundamentally tight in mid-March 2026, but the price board is currently showing more stability than volatility. The latest spot indications in the provided dataset point to a largely unchanged market over the past week: FCA Dordrecht cube grades are mostly flat on 13 March, while the most recent FOB Malatya whole-fruit offers from 10 March also held steady. That calm, however, should not be mistaken for comfort. The market is still trading in the long shadow of the April 2025 frost shock, which sharply reduced Turkish export availability and left buyers competing for limited carryover stocks. Recent trade reporting indicates that Turkey exported only 20,007 tons of dried apricots and related products between 1 August 2025 and 28 February 2026, down from 55,479 tons a year earlier, while shipments to the EU fell 60% year on year to 6,420 tons. At the same time, the 2026 orchard outlook is improving: Malatya is now in the budding phase, and field assessments cited by current trade coverage suggest recovery to roughly 60–80% of normal production if spring weather remains supportive. That makes the next several weeks decisive for pricing psychology. For now, the market structure is best described as firm-but-waiting: old-crop supply is still tight enough to keep FOB values elevated, but a better 2026 crop narrative is preventing another sharp upside leg unless weather turns adverse again. In practical terms, buyers are facing a market with limited nearby downside, modest grade-specific premiums, and a weather-sensitive forward curve centered on Malatya and central Türkiye conditions.

Prices

Latest market snapshot

Price takeaways

• Whole-fruit FOB Turkey prices are elevated versus diced/cube material in Europe, reflecting tight origin availability and processing/logistics spreads.
• Unsulphured and organic lines continue to command strong premiums.
• Short-term price direction is currently being driven more by supply scarcity and weather risk than by demand weakness.

Supply & Demand

• Turkey remains the dominant force in dried apricots, with Malatya accounting for roughly 85% of global dried apricot production in normal years.
• Trade flows are still distorted by the April 2025 frost. Recent market reporting shows Turkish dried apricot exports at 20,007 tons from 1 August 2025 to 28 February 2026, versus 55,479 tons in the same prior-season period.
• EU-bound shipments reportedly dropped to 6,420 tons, down 60% year on year, which helps explain the firm tone in European FCA offers.
• Demand has not collapsed, but buyers appear selective, covering nearby needs while watching the 2026 crop outlook before extending too far forward.

Fundamentals

What matters most now

• The market is transitioning from a pure old-crop shortage story to a weather-risk story for the new crop.
• If March stays mostly frost-free in Malatya, the trade may gradually price in better 2026 availability.
• If temperatures drop materially during flowering, current FOB values could harden again very quickly.

Weather outlook for Türkiye (TR) and crop impact

Weather analysis is focused on Türkiye, especially Malatya and central Anatolia, as requested. Current forecasts show Malatya with cool but not deeply damaging conditions over 14–17 March 2026: highs around 8–15°C and lows around 1–3°C after the current sub-zero morning reading, with some rain/drizzle on 15 March. Ankara is somewhat milder, with highs near 15–18°C and lows around 0–3°C over the same period. For apricots, this is a sensitive transition window because orchards in Malatya are moving from budding toward flowering. On balance, the next 3 days look neutral-to-supportive rather than overtly threatening, but the risk is not gone: any sharper late-March cold snap would matter disproportionately because phenological development is advancing.

• Malatya: Near-term weather is cool and manageable, with moisture helpful for trees if not excessive.
• Ankara/Central Türkiye: Mild conditions reduce immediate stress and support normal development.
• Main risk: Not this weekend alone, but the possibility of a renewed frost event later in March or early April.
• Market effect: Benign weather should keep prices firm but stable; frost headlines would likely re-price the market upward fast.

📰 Recent market drivers

• Recovery headlines from Malatya are improving sentiment around the 2026 crop.
• Export statistics remain the strongest bullish fundamental, confirming how deeply 2025 frost reduced available supply.
• Government support to growers has improved orchard maintenance and recovery potential.
• European buyers still face a structurally tight Turkish-origin market, especially for premium unsulphured and organic material.

🌐 Global production and stock comparison

There is no transparent exchange-style global stock ledger for dried apricots comparable to grains, so market participants are relying on export flow data, trade commentary, and origin offers as the best proxy for available inventories.

Trading outlook

• Buyers: Cover nearby needs steadily rather than waiting for a sharp correction; downside looks limited while Turkish stocks remain tight.
• Importers/processors: Watch Malatya night temperatures daily through flowering; weather will be the key trigger for forward pricing.
• Sellers: Maintain firm offers on premium grades; unsulphured and organic products still justify strong differentials.
• Risk managers: Treat any late-March frost alert in Türkiye as a potential bullish catalyst.
• General stance: Near-term market bias remains firm, but not explosively bullish unless weather deteriorates.

3-day regional price forecast for Türkiye-linked market

The 3-day forecast is based on currently supportive Türkiye weather, unchanged nearby supply tightness, and the absence of a fresh frost shock in Malatya. A colder-than-forecast turn would shift these ranges upward.