Indian Cashew Kernels Edge Higher on Steady Demand, Weather Watch

Indian cashew kernel prices are edging mildly higher, with benchmark grades in New Delhi up around 0.2–0.3% over the last week, supported by firm domestic and B2B demand. Export competitiveness remains under pressure versus Vietnam, but stable international buying and a weak monsoon outlook in some belt areas are preventing any meaningful price correction in the short term. The market tone is broadly steady-to-firm. Domestic snack and retail demand remains resilient, helped by ongoing promotional campaigns and active B2B offers from processors and traders across key producing states like Odisha and Karnataka. On the supply side, India is heading into the post-harvest marketing phase with a larger 2025/26 crop, while global raw cashew output is also expanding, especially in West Africa. In New Delhi, monsoon conditions remain humid with frequent showers, but no acute weather stress is reported for cashew orchards in the core belts over the next three days. Overall, short-term price risks are tilted slightly to the upside rather than to a correction.

Prices

Spot and near-term export prices are shown below, converted approximately to EUR using 1 EUR ≈ 1.10 USD.

Export dashboards for early 2026 suggested a broadly sideways kernel price outlook for India, with average W320 export prices near USD 7,900/tonne (≈ EUR 7.18/kg) and only modest variation expected across the first half of the year. Current New Delhi offers sit slightly below those earlier export benchmarks, underlining the gentle, range-bound character of today’s market.

Supply & Demand

Recent industry data indicate that India’s cashew production has increased for 2025/26, with national crop estimates around 725,000 tonnes of raw nuts, up from about 615,000 tonnes in 2024/25. Goa alone produced roughly 17.9 thousand tonnes in 2025–26, signalling continued growth in Western coastal states. Government programmes under schemes such as Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana and targeted support for processing capacity are aimed at further boosting output and value addition.

On the global side, raw cashew production is expanding strongly in West Africa, with countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Burkina Faso all reporting sizable crop increases for 2025/26, while Cambodia continues to ship large volumes of raw nuts to Vietnam for processing. Vietnam remains India’s key competitor in processing and exports, benefiting from scale, automation and preferential trade access in some markets. However, India’s large and growing domestic consumer base is helping to absorb kernels, cushioning local prices against global volatility and logistics disruptions.

Recent B2B listings and trade leads for Indian cashew kernels suggest active selling interest in standard grades (W180–W320 and pieces), particularly from exporters in Maharashtra, Goa and Odisha, with sellers quoting export-grade quality and vacuum packaging. This reflects healthy pipeline demand from overseas buyers, even if volumes are somewhat restrained by price competition and currency uncertainty.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India Focus)

For New Delhi and the surrounding northern plains, the 3-day outlook (30 July–1 August) points to a hot, humid monsoon pattern with frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms, with daytime highs around 33–34°C. While Delhi itself is not a major cashew-growing zone, this pattern is broadly consistent with seasonal monsoon conditions across much of India. No immediate large-scale weather shock to cashew orchards in the Western and Eastern coastal belts is being reported by national agencies over the last three days.

Given that most of the 2025/26 crop is already harvested and in processing, near-term weather is less about yield risk and more about post-harvest quality and logistics. Persistently high humidity and intermittent rains can affect drying and storage of kernels, but so far, there is no strong evidence of widespread quality downgrades, and export-quality kernels continue to be offered from established processors.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Higher Indian crop, but firm domestic demand: India’s larger 2025/26 raw cashew crop, alongside expanded support schemes, is boosting raw nut availability, but strong domestic consumption and value-added processing are tightening the balance for high-grade kernels.
• Global supply growth limits rallies: Robust production gains from West Africa and Cambodia are feeding substantial raw nut flows to Vietnam, creating a ceiling for international kernel prices and capping any sharp upside for Indian FOB values.
• Export competitiveness pressures: Earlier dashboards flagged a loss of price competitiveness for Indian exporters, with relatively higher raw material and processing costs versus Vietnam. This continues to encourage Indian processors to prioritise premium niches and domestic channels rather than purely volume-driven export contracts.
• Policy and promotional support: The government is backing the sector via export-promotion activities, trade fairs and financial assistance to industry bodies, which should underpin medium-term demand and facilitate market diversification.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)

• Bias: Steady to slightly firm – With only marginal increases in recent FCA prices and no major negative news on demand or crop quality, near-term Indian kernel prices are likely to hold within a narrow upward-sloping range.
• For buyers: Consider covering short-term physical needs in W240/W320 at current EUR-equivalent levels, especially for premium packaging and assured traceability, but avoid over-committing far forward given ample global raw supply.
• For sellers/processors: Maintain offer discipline on higher grades, using domestic and regional demand as a floor, while remaining flexible on pieces and broken grades where international competition is strongest.
• Risk factors: A sudden deterioration in monsoon progression in key coastal states or renewed logistics disruptions could tighten nearby availability and add a modest risk premium to FOB prices.

3-day Price Direction – Key Indian Reference (EUR)

• New Delhi FCA – W240/W320: Expected to trade broadly sideways to +0.5% over the next three days, as buyers and sellers digest recent small hikes and monitor monsoon-related logistics.
• New Delhi FOB – Standard grades: Likely to remain stable in EUR terms, with only minor adjustments driven by currency moves and freight negotiations rather than fundamental shifts.