Indian Raisins Edge Higher as Drought Clouds Next Season’s Supply

Indian raisin prices are firming, with small but broad-based gains across grades in New Delhi, while Afghan feed-grade offers in Europe also tick up. Weather in both key origins is currently benign, but ongoing drought stress in Maharashtra raises concerns for the 2027 crop and underpins a mildly bullish tone. Raisin trading this week is driven more by forward supply risk than by immediate availability. In India, FOB New Delhi quotations for golden, brown and black grade AA raisins all moved slightly higher, reflecting stronger fresh grape prices in Maharashtra’s mandis and rising replacement costs. At the same time, Afghan-origin feed-grade raisins in the Netherlands have inched up, supported by robust demand for low-cost blending material. Weather in Maharashtra and Afghanistan is dry and seasonally warm, not yet damaging existing stocks but critical for grape vine health ahead of the next pruning and fruiting cycle.

Prices

Indian raisin prices in New Delhi continue a steady upward trend. Golden raisins grade AA (FOB) are quoted at EUR 2.61/kg, up from EUR 2.58/kg on October 9. Brown raisins grade AA (FOB) stand at EUR 2.03/kg (previously EUR 1.99/kg), while black raisins grade AA (FOB) are at EUR 1.98/kg, versus EUR 1.95/kg earlier in the month.

Feed and bird-feed categories are also firm. Indian Malayar bird feed grade raisins (FOB New Delhi) hold at EUR 1.03/kg, unchanged in recent weeks. Afghan-origin brown feed-grade raisins delivered FCA Dordrecht are quoted at EUR 1.95/kg, up from EUR 1.92/kg at mid-October. The narrow but consistent week-on-week increases signal buyer willingness to pay a premium for reliable supply amid growing concern over next season’s grape output in western India.

Supply & Demand

India remains tightly linked to its fresh grape market. Maharashtra, the core grape and raisin belt, is experiencing a marked rainfall deficit as the monsoon withdraws, with official data pointing to widespread drought conditions across the state’s agricultural area. Grape growers in districts such as Solapur and Sangli report acute water stress and fear up to 40% losses if drought persists into the next pruning cycle, raising the risk that future raisin output will be constrained.

While Nashik grape prices have been relatively firm in recent days, reflecting tight supplies and solid domestic demand, only a small share of that region’s crop is typically dried into raisins. The key raisin-producing pockets in Sangli and neighbouring districts have seen a prolonged dry spell, with October rainfall far below normal, suggesting that water availability for vines and irrigation reservoirs will be a central constraint for the 2027 raisin season.

Afghanistan, historically a major global raisin exporter, continues to rely on dried fruit shipments as a core source of foreign exchange, although recent trade bottlenecks on land routes have forced some growers to dry more grapes when fresh exports stall. For European buyers, Afghan-origin feed-grade raisins remain an important low-cost input, and the recent uptick in FCA Netherlands prices signals steady demand against constrained logistics and regional geopolitical uncertainty.

Weather & Crop Outlook (AF, IN)

Short-term weather conditions in India’s raisin belt are seasonally hot and mostly dry. In Sangli and surrounding Maharashtra districts, forecasts for October 24–26 show hazy to sunny skies with maximum temperatures near 31–32°C and little to no rain. Nearby Nashik is expected to be very warm, with highs around 33°C and only isolated showers. These conditions support current drying and storage but exacerbate underlying drought and water shortages affecting vines.

In Afghanistan’s key grape and raisin zones such as Kandahar and Herat, the three-day outlook points to clear, dry weather with daytime highs in the low- to mid-20s°C and cool nights. This pattern is neutral to slightly positive for remaining drying activity and stock management ahead of winter. Overall, near-term weather is not an immediate threat to existing raisin supplies in either India or Afghanistan, but in India it deepens concerns about vine stress and the next grape crop.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Input-cost pass-through: Firm fresh grape prices in Maharashtra, supported by limited supply and resilient domestic demand, raise raw material costs for processors and underpin the modest rise in FOB raisin quotations.
• Drought risk premium: Official assessments of widespread drought damage across Maharashtra’s cropland and field reports of stressed vineyards in Solapur and Sangli add a forward-looking risk premium to current prices, even though warehouses remain reasonably supplied.
• Competing origins: Turkey’s new vine-fruit export season is running with brisk trading and competitive sultana offers, providing buyers with alternatives but also signalling broad demand strength in the global dried-fruit complex.
• Afghan logistics and trade: Afghanistan continues to push value-added raisin processing, yet recurring frictions at regional borders and reliance on a narrow set of trade corridors keep export flows vulnerable, supporting delivered prices into Europe.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price Indication

• Indian origin (FOB New Delhi): With golden AA at EUR 2.61/kg, brown AA at EUR 2.03/kg and black AA at EUR 1.98/kg, the market bias over the next three days (October 24–26) is mildly upward to steady, as buyers respond to drought headlines but export competition from Turkey caps sharp moves.
• Afghan origin (FCA Dordrecht): Feed-grade brown raisins at EUR 1.95/kg are expected to remain firm to slightly firmer in the very short term, supported by stable European demand for blending and ongoing logistical uncertainty out of Central Asia.
• Spread strategy: For industrial buyers, current differentials between premium Indian grades and Afghan feed material favour selectively locking in Afghan volumes while staggering purchases of higher-priced Indian lots in anticipation of further weather-driven volatility.

Over the coming three days, no significant weather shock is expected in either India’s or Afghanistan’s raisin regions, suggesting a continuation of the present, gently firm price environment rather than abrupt moves. Market participants should monitor evolving drought assessments in Maharashtra and early-season export activity from Turkey for the next decisive signal.