Raisin Prices Ease from Turkey and Afghanistan While Chile Holds Premiums

Afghan and Turkish raisin offers are edging lower into Europe, while Chilean flame jumbos still command a quality premium. Recent price action suggests a softer but orderly market, with buyers gaining leverage on feed and standard grades but paying up for top-grade and organic sultanas. After a sharp correction in Turkish and Afghan segments earlier in October, the raisin complex has stabilized into early November. European warehouses show modest week‑on‑week declines for Afghan feed and Chilean flame jumbos, in line with strong Turkish export competition and ample supply. Weather in key drying regions is seasonally mild with only light showers forecast, posing no immediate threat to existing stock but relevant for vineyard work for the next crop. Trade bottlenecks out of Afghanistan continue to cap farmer returns despite increased export activity via alternative routes.

Prices

Latest indicative quotations (all in EUR):

Turkish FOB Malatya sultanas remain structurally cheaper than EU warehouse Turkish RTU material, with type 9 grade A quoted around mid‑1.7s CIF/FOB-equivalent in EUR for bulk business, reflecting a strong 2026/27 crop and active exports.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghan raisin supply is ample after a good grape harvest in Kandahar and surrounding provinces, but local prices have been pressured by land‑border disruptions with Pakistan that slashed fresh grape exports. Farmers turned more grapes into raisins, increasing domestic availability just as trade routes through Torkham and Spin Boldak were curtailed.

Despite logistics issues, customs data show Afghan raisin export shipments (HS 080620) up more than 70% between April 2024 and September 2026 versus the prior period, with Bangladesh, Uzbekistan and Russia as key buyers. This mix of high physical supply and constrained cross‑border capacity underpins the soft tone on Afghan feed‑grade offers in Europe.

Turkey (TR)

Turkey entered the 2026/27 sultana season with a strong crop and robust carry‑in, lifting total vine‑fruit availability close to longer‑term averages. Early export data indicate a roughly 50% year‑on‑year increase in shipped volumes, supported by competitive prices and strong buying from Europe and Oceania.

Intervention purchases by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) at set TRY/kg levels for sultana types 7–10 have created an effective floor for farmer returns, limiting further downside for compliant export grades while still leaving room for discounting in lower specifications. This policy backdrop explains why Turkish RTU prices in the EU have eased but not collapsed.

Chile (CL)

Chile continues to position flame seedless and Thompson‑based raisins as higher‑specification material for Europe and North America, with a significant share routed through the Netherlands as a distribution hub. While most Chilean raisins are made from grapes unsuitable for fresh export, solid demand for large, visually consistent berries from bakery and snack segments helps sustain a price premium over Afghani feed grades and even some Turkish sultanas.

Fundamentals & Weather

Weather in Key Raisin Regions (Next 3–5 Days)

• Afghanistan – Herat / Western vineyards (AF): Forecasts for November 1–4 call for mild, mostly dry conditions with daytime highs in the low‑ to mid‑20s °C and only light, isolated showers mid‑week. Existing raisins are already dried and stored, so these patterns mainly support vineyard clean‑up and pruning for the next season.
• Turkey – Malatya (TR): Early November climatology points to cool, settled autumn weather with limited rainfall following the main drying period. With the 2026 crop largely processed and shipped into commercial channels, near‑term weather has minimal impact on current physical availability.
• Chile – Central valleys (CL): Chile is in late spring; recent industry commentary indicates normal conditions for Thompson and Flame vineyards, with no major weather‑related disruptions reported in the last days.

On fundamentals, global raisin production for 2023/24 was estimated around 1.1 million tonnes, with Turkey, China, Iran and the United States as leading producers. Strong Turkish supply in particular is central to the current easing of EUR‑denominated prices into Europe.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Afghan feed grades (AF): With export bottlenecks unresolved and local Kandahar prices reportedly less than half of last year’s levels, FCA EU offers are likely to remain under downward pressure or at best sideways as sellers compete with Turkish product.
• Turkish sultanas / RTU (TR): Strong export pace and TMO floor buying suggest a broadly stable price environment after October’s correction, with only limited room for additional discounts barring a demand shock.
• Chilean flame jumbo (CL): Expect steady‑to‑slightly‑softer levels in Europe as Turkish volumes continue to fill value segments and as buyers test replacement of some Chilean tonnage with cheaper origins where specifications allow.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers needing standard sultanas / RTU (TR): Consider layering in coverage on current dips rather than waiting for further downside, as TMO support and strong export offtake reduce the probability of a deep price slide.
• Industrial users of feed‑grade raisins (AF focus): Use the weaker Afghan FCA Dordrecht market around 1.90 EUR to secure flexible volumes, but monitor logistics risk from Afghan‑Pakistan border disruptions and potential route shifts via Iran and Central Asia.
• Premium segment (CL flame jumbo): Maintain hand‑to‑mouth buying; Chile retains a quality premium that may compress if European buyers continue substituting with Turkish or Chinese product, but no near‑term weather shock is visible.

3‑Day Directional View (AF, TR, CL)