Raisin prices hit seasonal lows as Turkish exporters chase lost markets

Raisin prices are under heavy pressure, with Turkish export values down by about one‑third year‑on‑year even as volumes surge. Margins across the chain are being squeezed and market participants report that “no one is making a profit” at current levels. After an initially tight season due to last year’s weather damage, the global raisin market has flipped into an environment of aggressive pricing and muted buying interest. Turkish exporters are pushing volume at sharply lower dollar prices to regain lost markets, but recent trade fair feedback from France confirms that new long‑term contracts remain scarce. At the same time, quality‑driven demand for residue‑free and effectively organic product is supporting a clear price premium, particularly for South African and certified organic Turkish origins. This divergence between bulk and premium segments is likely to shape trade flows into 2027.

Prices

Turkish raisin export prices have fallen from an average of about $3,550 per ton last season to roughly $2,463 per ton this season, a decline of nearly 31%. Despite this reset, attempts to win new customers at the recent SIAL trade fair in France were largely unsuccessful, signalling that demand at current levels remains cautious rather than urgent.

Physical quotations in EUR mirror this pressure. Turkish sultanas, type 9, grade A are indicated at 1.734 EUR/kg FOB Malatya, with type 8 at 1.712 EUR/kg and type 10 at 1.823 EUR/kg FOB. Conventional Turkish RTU type 9 is around 1.79 EUR/kg CIF, while organic type 9, grade A still commands a significant premium at 3.10 EUR/kg FOB. Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU are offered from Hamburg at 1.74 EUR/kg FCA, underscoring the intense price competition among standard qualities.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the key driver of the global raisin balance. Following last year’s harvest losses due to natural disasters, export volumes have rebounded strongly this season: shipments are reported up around 46%, yet export revenue has risen by only 1%, highlighting the severity of unit price erosion. Producers and exporters alike report that profitability has vanished at current dollar levels.

Strong Turkish availability coincides with substantial global supply from other major origins. South African raisins reportedly achieve around 2,900 USD per ton and still find demand, illustrating that buyers are willing to pay a premium for clean, residue‑free product. In contrast, Turkish suppliers at the French trade fair struggled to secure new clients even at much lower price points, indicating that quality perception and residue concerns increasingly outweigh pure price considerations for many European buyers.

Fundamentals & Quality Trends

The most striking structural shift is the growing importance of residue‑free and genuinely organic production. Turkish exporters themselves acknowledge that to compete with South African grapes priced near 2,900 USD per ton, they must move toward effectively organic production with zero chemical residues. This is creating a two‑tier market: conventional bulk raisins facing relentless price compression, and premium residue‑free or certified organic product maintaining higher and more stable values.

At the same time, the domestic cost base in Turkey has not fallen in line with export prices. Vineyard maintenance, labour and processing costs continue to rise, while the farm‑gate share of the export price is being squeezed. Sector representatives warn that under current conditions, neither producers nor exporters are making money, raising medium‑term concerns about vineyard removals and under‑investment in quality improvements.

Weather & Production Outlook

For the current 2026/27 campaign, weather in Turkey’s Aegean raisin belt has largely turned supportive after last year’s damaging events. Recent reports point to mostly dry and seasonally warm conditions during harvest and drying, which have favoured quality and helped underpin the rebound in exportable volumes. Near‑term weather is no longer a dominant driver for this crop, although localised showers still require careful handling of late‑harvested grapes.

Looking forward, the key structural weather risk remains the recurrence of spring frosts and excessive rainfall during flowering, as experienced in previous seasons. If prices stay depressed, farmers may cut back on crop protection and vineyard renewal, potentially increasing vulnerability to future weather shocks and reducing Turkey’s long‑term exportable surplus.

Trading Outlook

• Food industry buyers (EU/UK): Current Turkish prices in the 1.70–1.85 EUR/kg FOB range for standard sultanas offer attractive medium‑term value. Consider extending cover into late 2027, prioritising residue‑free lots and clearly specified quality parameters.
• Importers and packers: Differentiate sourcing between low‑cost conventional origins (Turkey, China, India) for value lines and premium South African or certified organic Turkish product for higher‑end segments, where price elasticity is lower.
• Turkish producers/exporters: Short‑term focus should be on cash flow and inventory rotation, but strategic investment in residue‑free and organic production is essential to escape the current low‑margin trap and rebuild market power.

3‑Day Market Indication

• Malatya (TR) – Sultanas type 9–10, FOB: Sideways to slightly softer; ample nearby supply and weak post‑fair demand limit any rebound.
• Hamburg (DE) – CN sultanas type 9 RTU, FCA: Mild downside bias as competition from Turkish offers stays intense.
• New Delhi (IN) – Raisins AA grades, FOB: Mostly stable with a modestly firmer tone in golden and brown grades, supported by domestic festival demand.