Indian Sesame FOB Eases as Monsoon Stays Uneven, Buyers Gain Leverage

Indian sesame FOB prices in New Delhi have slipped modestly over the last week, as exporters face softer near‑term demand and an uneven but improving monsoon that still clouds the kharif outlook. With oilseed sowing lagging last year but rainfall recovering in early July, the market is caught between supply risk later in the season and comfortable spot availability today. Exporters in India’s key sesame hub are trimming offers for EU‑grade hulled material, while natural and black sesame values consolidate after prior gains. National kharif data show oilseed acreage still around one‑fifth below last year despite better rains in early July, suggesting potential tightness later if yields suffer. At the same time, the local forecast for New Delhi points to several days of cloud, showers and sub‑normal temperatures, supporting crop conditions and easing immediate weather anxiety.

Prices

FOB New Delhi offers for Indian hulled sesame (EU‑grade) have edged down over the last two sessions. Taking an indicative EUR/USD rate of 1.10, current mid‑grades around USD 1.585–1.60/kg translate to roughly EUR 1.44–1.45/kg, about 1–2% below last week’s highs.

The small retreat follows a firm run‑up through late June as monsoon concerns and earlier sowing delays lifted risk premiums. With buyers now more cautious and export demand steady rather than strong, sellers are accepting slightly lower bids to keep flows moving while monitoring the next phase of the monsoon.

*Indicative conversion from USD/kg to EUR/kg using ≈1.10 EUR/USD; actual trades may vary by quality and lot size.

Supply & Demand

India’s overall kharif sowing is lagging last year despite a recovery in rainfall during the first 10 days of July. Recent government and media updates indicate that total kharif acreage is still behind, with pulses and oilseeds together down around 21–23% year‑on‑year as of mid‑July, after an earlier oilseed plunge of more than 50% by late June. While sesame is a minor share of total oilseeds, it is exposed to the same rain‑fed and timing risks.

Reports highlight that the monsoon entered a weak phase again in mid‑July, slowing sowing across several rain‑fed belts even as the national rainfall deficit narrowed from the extreme shortfall seen in June. This backdrop keeps the medium‑term supply outlook uncertain: current stocks and ongoing arrivals are adequate, but if acreage and yields do not recover over the next two weeks, late‑2026 export availability could tighten, especially for higher grades.

On the demand side, India remains a key supplier to markets such as China, the EU and East Asia. Available July trade commentaries point to steady off‑take rather than a surge, with buyers wary of over‑covering ahead of clearer signals on crop size and global macro conditions. This moderates immediate upside, even as potential weather‑driven supply risk supports a floor under prices.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India)

Nationally, the southwest monsoon has been erratic, with a sharp 45% rainfall deficit in June giving way to some improvement in early July. Government briefings stress that El Niño conditions remain a concern, and authorities have activated monitoring cells and advisory systems to support farmers through possible rainfall volatility.

For the New Delhi region, the Indian Meteorological Department’s local forecast as of July 16 points to generally cloudy skies with thunderstorms and rain, and maximum temperatures around 34–37°C between July 18 and 20, with no severe weather warnings. Such conditions are broadly supportive for standing oilseed crops and soil moisture, alleviating immediate heat stress but also periodically disrupting field work, including late sesame sowing and crop management.

Fundamentals & Key Drivers

• Monsoon‑linked acreage risk: Oilseed area remains materially below last year despite some catch‑up in early July, driven by uneven rains in core rain‑fed regions. This underpins a medium‑term risk premium for sesame, particularly if the next active monsoon phase disappoints.
• Policy and preparedness: The central government has flagged El Niño risks but emphasises seed reserves, insurance support and active monitoring to cushion impacts on kharif crops. This may limit extreme acreage loss but cannot fully offset weather shocks.
• Demand and trade flows: Export price tracking for July shows Indian sesame holding a competitive position versus some African origins, helping maintain flows but not yet triggering a demand spike. Forward buying is cautious, with many importers still hand‑to‑mouth.
• Local logistics and quality: Regular monsoon showers in North India can complicate post‑harvest drying and storage if poorly managed, potentially widening spreads between standard and premium grades later in the season.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Short‑term bias: Slightly bearish to sideways for FOB New Delhi sesame in EUR terms, as current supply is comfortable and monsoon trends are being reassessed.
• For buyers (importers, crushers, roasters): Use the current 1–2% dip to extend cover modestly for August–September shipments, especially for EU‑grade hulled material, but avoid over‑long positions until clearer acreage data emerge.
• For sellers (exporters, processors): Maintain offer discipline on top grades; consider limited hedging or forward sales at current levels, while keeping flexibility to capture potential upside if late‑July weather deteriorates.
• Risk watch: Monitor updated kharif sowing bulletins and monsoon progress in core sesame states; a confirmed recovery in oilseed acreage would cap rallies, while renewed deficits could quickly tighten forward spreads.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (FOB New Delhi, IN)

• Hulled sesame, EU‑grade 99.95–99.98%: Expected to trade in the range of approximately EUR 1.43–1.46/kg over the next three days, with a mild downward to sideways bias amid steady demand and supportive local weather.
• Natural white sesame export grades: Likely to remain around EUR 1.20–1.35/kg, broadly stable as buyers balance monsoon uncertainty with currently adequate availability.
• Black sesame (regular to premium): Prices are seen holding firm in roughly EUR 1.70–2.00/kg equivalent, with limited downside given tighter specialty demand and quality‑sensitive end‑use segments.