Indian Sesame Prices Hold Firm as Monsoon Starts Unevenly

Indian sesame prices are holding broadly steady with a mild firm bias, while an uneven monsoon onset and continuing heat over northwest India limit near‑term downside. Export interest from traditional buyers remains consistent but not aggressively higher, keeping the market in a tight, range‑bound structure. Indian domestic weather is turning more supportive for kharif oilseeds in the south and east as the southwest monsoon pushes inland, but northwest India – including Delhi and adjoining producing/handling areas – is still under hotter, drier conditions. This, together with cautious farmer selling ahead of clearer rainfall signals, helps underpin near‑term sesame values despite comfortable spot availability. Over the next three days, prices in New Delhi are expected to trade sideways to slightly firmer in euro terms.

Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR using a working rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR.

Indicative Indian mandi prices for sesamum in Uttar Pradesh are around INR 9,500/quintal (≈ EUR 1.05/kg) and have been stable since the start of June, confirming the broadly sideways tone in domestic physical markets.  

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

From the supply side, the immediate situation is driven more by old-crop distribution and international parity than by new-crop fundamentals. There are no fresh, crop-specific shocks reported for sesame in India or key competing origins in the last three days; export pipelines are functioning normally, and logistics disruptions are limited to the usual seasonal tightness.

Globally, oilseed markets remain sensitive to weather and macro uncertainty, but the latest high-frequency news flow has focused more on monsoon conditions and fertilizer availability than on sesame-specific constraints.  Buyer demand from the EU and Middle East is described as steady rather than aggressive, with purchasers showing preference for high-purity hulled and EU-grade material. This supports a small quality premium but has not yet translated into a strong price breakout in India.

Weather & Crop Outlook (India, Focus IN)

The southwest monsoon has now advanced into parts of southern, central and northeastern India, bringing widespread rain to Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the northeast.  However, northwest India – including the broader Delhi region – is still experiencing episodes of heat, with IMD warning of heatwave to severe heatwave conditions and projecting a further rise of 4–6°C in maximum temperatures over northwest and central India through 11 June. 

On the seasonal horizon, IMD and related analyses maintain that the 2026 southwest monsoon is likely to be below normal on an all-India basis, around 92% of the long-period average, with particular concern for possible shortfalls later in the season.  For sesame, this implies that while early sowing conditions in some southern and eastern belts may be adequate, moisture risk for rainfed sesame in parts of central and northwest India could increase if July–September rainfall underperforms.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Domestic balance: Spot availability in Indian hubs remains comfortable, with no acute tightness reported. Stable mandi prices in north India confirm a balanced near-term picture. 
• Weather risk premium: The combination of a delayed and regionally uneven monsoon onset plus IMD’s below-normal seasonal outlook is beginning to limit downside for oilseeds generally, including sesame, as traders anticipate potential yield risks if rainfall falters later. 
• Input and macro factors: Fertiliser supply concerns and broader agri-commodity inflation themes remain in the background, but there have been no major new policy announcements or export restrictions directly affecting sesame in the last few days. 
• Competing origins: No fresh, dated reports in the last three days indicate major disruptions in African or other sesame-exporting regions; India remains competitive on quality and price for EU-grade hulled material.

Short-Term Price Outlook (3 Days, India)

Given the stable domestic balance, modest quality premiums and only gradually evolving weather signals around Delhi and northwest India, a narrow trading range is expected for the next three days.

• New Delhi FOB hulled white (bulk): Sideways to slightly firm in EUR terms; intraday moves likely within a very tight band around current levels, with exporters reluctant to discount ahead of clearer monsoon signals.
• High-purity EU-grade hulled: Premiums over standard hulled are likely to be maintained, but scope for additional widening is limited unless EU buying accelerates.
• Black sesame (regular, semi Z, super Z): Bias modestly upward as niche export and specialty demand remains resilient, and farmers show some holding power amid heat and monsoon uncertainty.

Trading Recommendations

• Exporters: Consider light forward coverage at current levels for July–August shipments, especially for high-purity hulled and black sesame, while avoiding over-commitment until July rainfall clarity improves.
• Importers (EU, Middle East): Use the current sideways structure to secure near-term needs; downside from here appears limited as long as IMD maintains a below-normal monsoon view.
• Domestic buyers in India: For processors near Delhi and north India, stagger purchases over the coming week rather than front-loading, as local mandi prices are stable and immediate supply is comfortable.

Overall, for the next three days, Indian sesame prices in New Delhi are expected to remain broadly stable with a slight upward bias, particularly for high-purity and black grades, as traders watch the interaction between monsoon progress and persistent heat in northwest India.