Millet Market Balances New Indian Crop Pressure with Weather Delays

Millet prices are under mild seasonal pressure as India’s new bajra crop starts to flow from Rajasthan, but persistent rains are slowing harvest and arrivals, preventing a deeper sell-off. Export quotations from Ukraine and China remain broadly stable in euro terms, while weak demand is capping any significant upside. After last season’s tightness, the current millet market is transitioning into a new-crop phase driven mainly by developments in India, a key producer and exporter. Fresh bajra arrivals in Rajasthan and Gujarat are weighing on sentiment, but widespread showers are hampering fieldwork and mandi logistics. This is temporarily limiting spot supply and supporting prices at the upper end of recent ranges. At the same time, export interest remains lacklustre despite India’s sizeable FY2025–26 shipments, keeping international offers from the Black Sea and China relatively flat week-on-week.

Prices

In Rajasthan mandis, bajra (pearl millet) is trading in a mildly pressured band, broadly consistent with the reported range of about $22.75–$25.40 per quintal, with local currency quotes clustering near ₹2,000–₹2,200 per quintal across major centres in mid-September. Rains have prevented a sharper slide by slowing the pace of arrivals just as the new crop begins to move.

Export-oriented millet prices are largely unchanged over the past week. In Ukraine (Odesa, FCA), inshell yellow millet seeds are quoted around €0.33/kg, while hulled conventional kernels hold near €0.61/kg and organic kernels around €1.20/kg. In China (Beijing, FOB), hulled non-organic kernels are offered close to €0.87/kg, with organic around €0.95/kg, only marginally higher than early September levels.

Supply & Demand

New-crop supply from Rajasthan is the central driver. Fresh arrivals are increasing but remain uneven because of ongoing rainfall, which delays harvesting operations and limits truck movement into mandis. This is tempering immediate downward pressure and keeping spot markets relatively well supported compared with typical harvest-time lows.

On the demand side, buying interest is described as weak, particularly from domestic feed and food processors who have sufficient near-term coverage. India still managed to export around 138,900 tonnes of millets in FY2025–26, worth about $61.57 million, with strong flows to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Nepal, the US and Morocco, underscoring a diverse but currently subdued export demand base.

Fundamentals

The fundamental setup is mildly bearish in the medium term but weather-sensitive in the near term. If rains ease and harvesting in Rajasthan and Gujarat normalises, a faster build-up of arrivals is likely to weigh further on local prices and, by extension, on export quotations from India and competing origins.

For exporters in Ukraine and China, current euro-denominated offers show little day-to-day volatility, reflecting balanced on-farm stocks and a cautious export sales pace. The absence of strong incremental demand from key importing regions means that even a modest increase in Indian export availability later in the season could intensify competition and pressure offers, especially for conventional (non-organic) grades.

Weather & Harvest Outlook

In north-west India, including Rajasthan, recent showers have been sufficient to slow bajra harvesting and field drying conditions, but not severe enough to raise broad-based yield concerns at this stage. Short-term forecasts point to intermittent rainfall pockets, suggesting that arrivals may continue to lag potential for several days.

Once a drier window emerges, harvest is expected to accelerate quickly given improved soil moisture and crop maturity. This shift from weather-constrained to fully active harvest will be a key inflection point for prices, likely pushing the market from the current balanced tone towards more pronounced seasonal weakness if demand does not pick up.

4–6 Week Market & Trading Outlook

• Base case: Gradual increase in arrivals from Rajasthan and Gujarat exerts additional pressure on bajra prices, with local mandis drifting moderately lower into October unless rains persist longer than expected.
• Upside risk: Prolonged or heavier-than-expected rainfall that materially delays harvest could tighten spot availability and briefly lift prices above current bands, especially for higher-quality lots.
• Downside risk: A rapid, weather-driven surge in arrivals combined with still-weak domestic and export demand could trigger a sharper short-term correction in both Indian mandi prices and export offers from competing suppliers.

Trading Pointers

• Buyers (feed and food industry): Consider a staggered procurement strategy, covering nearby needs now while keeping room to add on potential post-harvest price dips if arrivals in India accelerate.
• Exporters (Black Sea & China): Maintain offer discipline but be prepared for more aggressive competition from Indian exporters later in the season; focus on quality differentiation and reliable logistics to defend premiums.
• Producers in India: Where storage is available, delaying sales of good-quality lots beyond the immediate harvest window may yield better realisations if prices trough on heavy arrivals and then normalise.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• India – Rajasthan mandis (bajra): Slight downside bias in euro terms as more new crop trickles in, but moves likely limited while rains still constrain harvest pace.
• Ukraine – FCA Odesa millet: Largely stable around current offer levels (≈€0.33/kg for inshell seeds; ≈€0.61/kg for hulled kernels), with only minor tactical adjustments expected.
• China – FOB Beijing millet: Sideways to slightly firm near €0.85–€0.95/kg as exporters watch Indian price signals and freight developments.