Turkish Dried Apricots Ease Slightly as EU Demand Stays Cautious

Turkish dried apricot prices are edging lower from previously elevated levels, with small week‑on‑week declines in EU warehouse values while FOB Turkey quotations remain broadly steady. The market is still underpinned by tight stocks after last season’s frost losses, but buyers are resisting further increases and stretching coverage. After months of firm pricing, the dried apricot complex around Malatya is moving into a more balanced phase. Export data for Q1 2026 confirm strong trade flows and resilient global demand, yet price-sensitive buyers in Europe are negotiating harder and limiting forward commitments. Weather in Malatya over the next few days looks cool and unsettled but non-threatening for orchards, so no immediate weather premium is being added. In this context, sellers are focusing on maintaining margins on higher calibres, while industrial cubes show the clearest softening.

Prices & Market Tone

Dutch FCA prices for Turkish dried apricot cubes from Dordrecht show a modest decline versus late April, with most sizes down by about EUR 0.05 per kg, indicating mild seller concession after a period of firmness. FOB quotations in Malatya and Ankara for whole unsulphured and sulphured fruit are largely unchanged compared with mid‑ to late‑April, reflecting continued tightness at origin.

Recent analysis of the Turkish dried apricot sector still characterizes Q1 2026 prices as “high and firm” due to restricted Turkish supply and reduced export volumes after the 2025 frost, even as some sideways to slightly softer moves appear in spot EU business. Strong export revenues from Malatya in March underline that, despite elevated prices, demand has remained sufficiently robust to absorb these levels so far.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Malatya retains its role as the dominant global hub for dried apricots, providing the bulk of Turkey’s output and a major share of world export supply. Q1 2026 export performance – about USD 66 million in revenue for Malatya alone – confirms that overseas demand has stayed solid, even as buyers manage volumes carefully amid high prices and prior crop losses.

Export-oriented processors in Malatya report stable operations and continued interest from European and global B2B customers, particularly for both conventional and organic grades. However, international buyers are cautious on inventory building, preferring hand-to-mouth purchases while watching new‑crop development and macroeconomic signals, which helps explain the slight easing seen in EU ex‑warehouse values.

Weather & Crop Outlook (Region: TR / Malatya)

Short‑term weather in Malatya from 2–4 May 2026 is forecast to be mostly cloudy and relatively cool, with highs easing from around 20°C on Saturday to the mid‑teens by Monday, and brief showers possible. These conditions are not currently seen as damaging for orchards at this stage of development and should support gradual vegetative growth without heat stress.

Given memories of severe frost episodes in 2025, which sharply reduced the crop and underpinned the present tight stock situation, market participants remain alert to any late cold snaps. For now, the early‑season outlook is cautiously constructive, with no immediate weather shock to justify fresh price spikes in the coming days.

Key Price Snapshot (Indicative, EUR/kg)

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

The combination of still‑tight origin stocks and mildly softer European ex‑warehouse levels points to a sideways‑to‑slightly‑weaker price pattern in the very near term, especially for industrial cubes. Strong structural demand for dried fruit in Europe – particularly in health‑oriented retail and bakery applications – continues to underpin the complex despite buyer resistance to high prices.

• Importers (EU): Consider layering in coverage on dips for cubes and mid‑calibre grades over the next 1–2 weeks, as current minor discounts may be temporary if new‑crop weather or macro factors turn less benign.
• Packers/Processors: Prioritize margin protection on premium whole grades, where origin prices remain firm, while using softer cube values to secure competitively priced inputs for blends and muesli mixes.
• Turkish Exporters: Maintain offer discipline on high‑quality calibres but show targeted flexibility on industrial and lower grades to keep export volumes flowing in a cautious demand environment.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (Region‑Linked)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara (TR): Expected largely stable over the next three days, with no weather‑driven shock or policy change in sight.
• FCA Northwest Europe (e.g. NL warehouses): Bias remains slightly softer, but moves are likely to stay within a narrow EUR 0.05/kg band as buyers and sellers test the new equilibrium.