Dried apricots steady as Malatya weather turns seasonally mild

Dried apricot prices for Turkish origins are holding steady in early May, with only marginal softening in European FCA cubes. With calm weather in Malatya and no fresh supply shock, the market is consolidating at elevated levels and liquidity is thin rather than aggressively bullish. Export demand from Türkiye remains broadly firm, but current spot activity is selective. Mild, stable weather in Malatya over the coming three days supports good orchard conditions without introducing frost risk, pointing to a neutral near‑term price outlook from origin and steady-to-slightly softer indications in EU warehouses. Buyers can use current stability to fine‑tune cover for Q3–Q4 without chasing the market.

Prices & Spreads

Spot offers for Turkish dried apricots remain flat week-on-week across most grades. FOB Malatya/Ankara unsulphured fruit is indicated around EUR 7.8–8.7/kg for conventional No. 5–1, with organic equivalents near EUR 9.3–10.3/kg. European FCA stocks (NL, PL) for Turkish cubes and industrial material are quoted roughly in the EUR 3.3–6.45/kg range, depending on cut size and quality.

Over the past two weeks, notable moves have been small step-downs of about EUR 0.05/kg on several cube grades in Dordrecht, while Polish TR‑1123 material in Łódź is unchanged. Overall, the board is signalling a sideways market: no new highs, but also no broad-based discounting as sellers remain confident in the underlying balance.

Supply, Demand & Export Context

Malatya, the core production hub for Turkish dried apricots, accounts for roughly half of Türkiye’s fresh apricot output and the dominant share of dried volumes, underpinning its central role in global supply. Recent trade data show Turkish fruit and nut exports to key destinations such as Russia staying strong into 2024–2025, with apricots (fresh and processed) among the significant contributors.

Export performance this year remains solid: Malatya shipped over 2,400 tonnes of dried apricots in March alone, generating more than USD 20 million, and about 7,000 tonnes in Q1 2026 with receipts near USD 66 million. This indicates healthy offtake despite high price levels and confirms that current spot stability is demand-supported rather than purely stock-driven.

Broader dried fruit exports from southeastern Türkiye also performed well in Q1, reflecting resilient international demand for Turkish-origin dried fruits despite macroeconomic headwinds. Against this backdrop, buyers remain price sensitive but continue to take cover, especially for consistent Malatya-quality material, limiting downside pressure.

Weather & Crop Outlook (Region: TR / Malatya)

The short-term weather outlook for Malatya over 12–14 May 2026 points to mild, stable conditions: daytime highs around 23–25°C, lows near 10°C, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and no frost risk. This is supportive for setting and early fruit development following the flowering phase, without introducing heat stress.

Local reports from late March highlighted extensive blooming across Malatya orchards as spring advanced, signalling a normal phenological calendar after last season’s frost-related disruptions. Together with strong Q1 export volumes, these conditions suggest the 2026 crop is on track, easing some of the tightness that kept prices elevated in recent campaigns. However, the market will continue to watch for any late spring weather anomalies or early-summer heatwaves.

Fundamentals & Cost Environment

Turkish agriculture is operating in a context of elevated but recently more stable input costs. National analyses of April producer and retail prices highlight ongoing discrepancies between farmgate and end-market levels, implying that cost pressures and margins in the chain remain sensitive. For dried apricot exporters, this encourages disciplined offer strategies and hesitance to concede on FOB prices absent a clear demand shock.

From the global side, commodity research for spring 2026 still characterises dried apricot prices as high and firm after prior frost damage, with limited carry-over stocks and strong demand from Europe and other key markets. The current flat pricing in TR and only marginal softening in EU warehouses therefore look more like consolidation at a high plateau than the start of a deep correction.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Trading recommendations (short term, 1–3 weeks)

• Importers / packers (EU): Use the current sideways market to extend coverage modestly into Q3, especially on standard No. 3–5 and key cube sizes, but avoid overbuying given the absence of immediate weather threats.
• Retail/private-label buyers: Consider negotiating on FCA warehouse premiums in NL and PL where slight easing is visible on cubes; FOB origin levels in Türkiye are more rigid and unlikely to soften without a clear demand pullback.
• Turkish exporters: Maintain offer discipline on prime Malatya grades while remaining flexible on industrial and cube material to defend volumes in price-sensitive destinations.

3‑day directional outlook (all in EUR)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara, conventional unsulphured No. 3–5: 7.8–8.3 €/kg, expected stable over the next 3 days.
• FOB Malatya, sulphured No. 3–5: around 8.0–8.3 €/kg, stable, with sellers defending current levels.
• FCA Dordrecht (NL) cubes & industrial (TR origin): 3.3–6.45 €/kg, bias slightly softer to flat on selective discounts for larger cuts.
• FCA Łódź (PL) TR‑1123 No. 8: about 5.15 €/kg, stable with limited spot activity.