Climate Stress and Tight Farmer Selling Support Turkish Dried Apricot Prices

Apricot supply from Malatya is increasingly constrained by climate-related damage and disease, while growers with remaining stocks resist low bids. This combination of structural yield pressure and tight farmer selling is underpinning dried apricot prices despite weaker export volumes. Export data already show smaller shipped volumes compared with last year, even as average export prices increase but still lag behind growers’ cost expectations. Heavy spring rains, frost, hail and diseases are eroding production potential, especially at lower altitudes, and pushing orchards gradually higher. Against this backdrop, the new crop size and weather in the coming weeks will be decisive for the next price leg.

Prices & Market Tone

FOB Malatya prices for conventional Turkish dried apricots remain broadly steady in EUR terms. Unsulphured grades trade around:

• No. 1: about EUR 8.55/kg FOB Malatya
• No. 2: about EUR 8.65–10.35/kg FOB Malatya (organic at the upper end)
• No. 3–5: roughly EUR 7.8–8.0/kg FOB Malatya

Sulphured 2000 ppm material is slightly cheaper, mostly in the EUR 7.3–8.7/kg FOB range depending on size and colour. European FCA prices for Turkish cubes remain significantly lower, around EUR 5.5–6.5/kg in the Netherlands and about EUR 5.15/kg in Poland for bulk TR-1123 material, indicating some pressure in processed formats but resilience in origin whole-fruit prices.

Over the last month, origin prices have been largely flat, with only minor downward adjustments in some sulphured sizes. The price stability in Malatya contrasts with the decline in export volumes, suggesting that supply-side constraints and farmer selling behaviour are currently more influential than short-term demand softness.

Supply, Climate Stress & Farmer Behaviour

Production in the traditional lowland apricot zones of Malatya is increasingly unreliable. Agronomists and farmers report that orchards below roughly 950 metres altitude struggle to deliver stable, high-quality yields. Recurring agricultural frost events, hail, sudden temperature swings around flowering and harvest, and rising disease pressure are driving systematic yield losses, particularly in fruit destined for drying.

Heavy rains in recent months have further aggravated the situation. Many growers were unable to carry out sufficient crop protection spraying, and blossom drop due to disease has become visible in low-lying orchards. Farmers widely state that each season’s harvest has been worse than the last, confirming a multi-year trend that is pushing commercial apricot production towards cooler, higher-altitude locations.

This structural deterioration in yields is already reflected in exports: recent weekly shipments from the Aegean region reached only about 118,340 kg, significantly below last year’s comparable level. Interestingly, the corresponding export value of roughly USD 9,611 is markedly higher than a year ago, pointing to firmer unit prices but still below what growers consider acceptable given sharply increased cost structures.

On the ground, traders show clear interest to buy, but many farmers holding stock are unwilling to sell at today’s levels. Growers are waiting for a clearer picture of the new-crop volume before committing, anticipating that another small harvest will force prices higher. This deliberate withholding of stocks effectively tightens nearby supply and underpins FOB quotations.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

The fundamental balance into the new season is finely poised. On the supply side, carryover stocks at origin are present but concentrated in farmer hands, and quality is increasingly uneven due to past weather and disease issues. Demand from key export destinations is price-sensitive but stable, with buyers showing interest mainly on dips and for standard grades.

Short-term weather in Malatya over the next three days is seasonally mild but unsettled, with a mix of sun, clouds and a risk of localised thunderstorms and showers. Daytime highs are expected to range roughly from 18–25°C, with cool nights near 10–11°C. While not extreme, further rain during sensitive phenological stages could maintain disease pressure and limit improvements in yield expectations for low-altitude orchards.

Looking beyond the immediate horizon, the key structural risk remains the ongoing climate-driven shift of viable apricot production into higher altitudes. This implies higher production costs, constrained expansion potential and persistent yield volatility. Unless there is an exceptional run of favourable weather, the market should prepare for continued tension between limited reliable supply and cautious but steady international demand.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers/industrial buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs now at current EUR 7.8–8.2/kg FOB levels for standard Malatya grades, given the downside appears limited if the new crop disappoints again.
• Retail/brand buyers: Prioritise securing consistent quality lots, even at a premium, as climate-related defects and disease issues are rising in lower-altitude fruit.
• Farmers/grower groups: Maintaining a disciplined selling pace seems justified while new-crop quantity is uncertain, but be aware that weak export demand or macro headwinds could cap near-term price spikes.
• Traders: The market currently favours selective long exposure in higher-quality and organic unsulphured segments, with spreads to processed cubes likely to remain wide.

3‑Day Price Indication & Direction

Near-term, origin prices in Malatya are expected to remain broadly stable with a mild upward bias, supported by farmer holding and ongoing uncertainty about the upcoming harvest size, while downstream European prices for processed forms may see limited softness if demand stays cautious.