Preços do abacaxi desidratado permanecem estáveis enquanto oferta tailandesa se normaliza e prêmio do Vietnã se amplia

Os preços de abacaxi desidratado da Tailândia e do Vietnã estão amplamente estáveis no fim de junho, com ofertas FCA Europa da Tailândia estáveis e níveis FOB do Vietnã mantendo um prêmio significativo. A melhora na disponibilidade global de abacaxi e fluxos sazonais normais estão aliviando a restrição anterior, limitando o potencial de alta no curto prazo. Após vários anos de volatilidade climática no abacaxi tailandês, as ofertas atuais para produto padrão desidratado seguem laterais enquanto os compradores monitoram os riscos de El Niño e sobretaxas de frete. O principal cinturão de abacaxi da Tailândia em Prachuap Khiri Khan está quente, mas não sob estresse climático agudo nesta semana, e relatórios internacionais indicam maiores volumes de abacaxi fresco e uma oferta global mais confortável. O Vietnã continua a aproveitar a forte demanda por frutas da China, mantendo firmes os valores do abacaxi processado. No geral, o mercado está em um equilíbrio de curto prazo, mas clima e custos logísticos seguem como pontos‑chave de atenção.

Prices & Spreads

Below prices converted to EUR using ~0.92 EUR/US$ where needed; they should be seen as indicative market levels rather than firm offers.

Vietnam’s farm‑gate fresh pineapple is currently assessed around US$0.45/kg (≈0.41 EUR/kg), while export unit values across fresh and dried formats average about US$1.06/kg (≈0.98 EUR/kg), slightly higher year on year, reflecting firm processed margins.

Supply & Demand Drivers

In Thailand, Prachuap Khiri Khan – a core pineapple province – continues to specialize in pineapple and coconut farming, with industrial capacity oriented toward canning and drying. National economic analysis highlights El Niño as a major 2026 risk but also points to generally adequate rainfall so far, with agriculture still projected to expand this year despite weather uncertainty.

Recent trade commentary from a large North American produce buyer indicates that global pineapple availability has improved, with expectations of good fresh volume over the next 3–5 weeks. This easing on the fresh side supports raw‑material supply for processors in both Thailand and Vietnam, reducing immediate upside pressure on dried prices.

On the demand side, Vietnam is increasingly integrated into Chinese fruit supply chains. Recent coverage notes Vietnamese tropical fruits, including pineapple, gaining shelf space in Chinese wholesale and retail markets, underpinning steady export demand. End‑users in Europe and North America are also facing higher fuel surcharges in sea freight, which tightens delivered cost budgets even if raw material prices are stable.

Weather & Fundamental Outlook (TH, VN)

In Thailand’s Kui Buri / Prachuap Khiri Khan district, short‑term forecasts point to very warm conditions around 31–35°C with partly cloudy skies and only scattered showers over the next few days – typical early wet‑season weather without signs of acute flooding or drought stress in the immediate term. National planning documents, however, flag a very high probability that El Niño will strengthen through late 2026, implying below‑normal rainfall and more erratic distribution later in the season, which could cap yield recovery if irrigation is insufficient.

Vietnam’s key pineapple‑growing provinces in the north are currently in a hot season pattern with daytime highs frequently above 35°C and only localized storms. While this supports quick field drying, it can also stress plants if heat combines with moisture deficits. For now, no acute weather‑driven supply shock is visible, and official data still show Vietnam as a modest but stable net exporter of pineapple products.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3–5 weeks)

• Thailand dried pineapple (FCA EU): With fresh supply improving, factory throughput normal, and no immediate weather disruption, prices for standard Thai dried product are likely to remain in a tight band around current levels, with only minor adjustments tied to freight and currency.
• Vietnam dried pineapple (FOB): Strong Chinese demand and higher processing and compliance costs should keep Vietnamese offers at a firm premium to Thai origins. Sideways to slightly firmer price action is more likely than a retreat near term.
• Risk factors: A sharper turn toward drier‑than‑normal conditions under El Niño later in Q3, or additional fuel‑related freight surcharges, could re‑ignite upside risk across origins even if spot supply is comfortable today.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers (EU/Asia): Use the current sideways market to extend coverage modestly (4–8 weeks) on Thai dried pineapple where FCA Europe offers are stable, especially for 5–7 mm grades, while avoiding over‑committing far into the El Niño‑exposed H2 2026 period.
• Origin diversification: Maintain some Vietnamese coverage despite the premium, given its strong access to Chinese demand and potentially different weather profile, as a hedge against Thai production shocks.
• Sellers / processors: Lock in forward sales selectively at today’s levels but keep flexibility on later‑season deliveries, as both weather deterioration and freight cost escalation could justify higher replacement prices.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction Only)

• TH – Dried pineapple FCA EU (Dordrecht): Prices seen stable over the next three trading days, with any moves likely within a very narrow range given balanced supply.
• VN – Dried pineapple FOB (Hanoi): Prices expected to remain firm to stable, supported by steady export demand and higher value‑added positioning versus Thai origin.