Turkish dried apricots: flat EUR prices but upside risk from tight 2026 crop

Turkish dried apricot prices in EUR remain broadly flat week-on-week, with only marginal softening on European FCA cubes while FOB Malatya offers hold steady. A weak lira, slow but resilient demand and comfortable short‑term stocks are keeping nearby values stable, yet a structurally smaller 2026 crop leaves clear upside risk if any new weather or currency shock emerges. Dried apricots from Türkiye – and especially Malatya – continue to anchor global pricing, with exporters highlighting Turkey’s roughly 85% share of world dried apricot output and Malatya’s dominant role in supply. Recent market updates describe a pause phase: European buyers are mostly well covered into Q3 and are testing the market rather than chasing volume, which caps spot activity but also prevents meaningful price erosion. The key medium‑term driver is a significantly reduced 2026 crop potential, so current flat prices look more like a consolidation than the start of a bearish trend.

Prices & spreads

Based on the latest quotations, Turkish dried apricot prices in Europe and FOB Türkiye are broadly stable in mid‑May, with only small declines on some cube cuts compared with early May. Exporters confirm that Turkey’s dominance in global dried apricots means Malatya FOB levels effectively set the floor for international prices, while the weak TRY versus EUR is cushioning exporters’ margins and limiting the need for immediate EUR price hikes.

Wholesale benchmarks in continental Europe (e.g. French wholesale listings for premium Malatya dried apricots) also show relatively steady EUR prices into mid‑May, consistent with a flat‑to‑slightly‑easing near‑term trend.

Supply, demand & weather (Türkiye focus)

Turkey remains the key global origin, with industry and academic sources reiterating that the country accounts for around 85% of world dried apricot production and that Malatya alone provides the vast majority of Turkey’s dried output. Recent market intelligence highlights expectations for a significantly reduced 2026 crop – around half of a normal Malatya harvest – following earlier frost and tree‑health issues, which will cap exportable supply even if current ending stocks look comfortable.

On the demand side, European dried fruit and nut snacking continues to grow, with organic and additive‑free segments gaining share, supporting structural demand for both conventional and organic Turkish apricots. Near‑term buying interest is described as “slow but resilient”: large importers are mostly covered for the next few months and mainly probing for small volumes, which keeps spot liquidity thin but provides a floor to prices.

Weather in Malatya over the coming three days (19–21 May) looks seasonally cool but not threatening: forecasts show daytime highs around 18–20°C with intervals of clouds, sun and only isolated thundershowers. This should allow orchards to progress through the early fruit‑set period without fresh frost risk, limiting short‑term weather‑driven price shocks, although academic work from Malatya underlines how vulnerable apricots remain to any late spring cold snaps due to early blooming.

Fundamentals & risk factors

• Crop size & stocks: Independent commentary indicates 2026 Malatya dried apricot output could be around 50,000 t versus a typical 100,000 t, implying structurally tighter availability and higher reliance on carry‑over stocks.
• Currency: Exporters stress that dried apricot offers are set in EUR or USD while their costs are in TRY; the still‑weak lira versus EUR is enabling flat foreign‑currency prices despite domestic inflation and higher input costs.
• Quality & compliance: EU food‑safety scrutiny remains high, with contaminant and mycotoxin controls on dried fruits; Turkish suppliers are investing in lab testing and modern drying/storage to protect export access and justify price premiums for certified product.
• Structural demand: Health‑oriented snacking trends and the growing share of organic dried fruit in Europe underpin medium‑term demand, helping to lock in a firm price floor even during periods of weak spot buying.

Short‑term outlook & trading takeaways

With Malatya weather benign over the next three days and buyers well covered, Turkish dried apricot prices are likely to remain in a narrow range in the very short term, with FCA Europe cubes seeing only marginal further softening at best. The bigger picture, however, is still skewed to the upside due to a smaller 2026 crop, tight global stocks and robust structural demand, especially if any new weather or currency surprise emerges.

Trading outlook (next 1–4 weeks)

• Importers / packers (EU/UK): Use current flat FCA levels around 5.1–6.4 EUR/kg for Turkish cubes to top up coverage through Q3 2026, especially on higher‑grade unsulphured and organic product where potential weather‑driven rallies could be sharpest.
• Turkish exporters: Maintain offer discipline on FOB Malatya/Ankara sulphured grades in the 7.3–8.7 EUR/kg range, using the weak lira to defend margins rather than chasing volume with discounts that may be hard to reverse if crop tightness intensifies.
• Distributors: Avoid over‑short positions; current flat prices are less a bearish signal and more a reflection of slow spot demand. Consider modest forward buying on any dips, given asymmetric upside risk into the 2026/27 campaign.

3‑day directional price view (EUR)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara TR (sulphured & unsulphured whole fruit): Stable in the 7.3–8.7 EUR/kg band over the next three days, with no immediate weather trigger for moves.
• FCA Lodz PL (no. 8 TR‑1123): Around 5.15 EUR/kg, expected flat as nearby demand is covered and replacement costs from Türkiye are steady.
• FCA Dordrecht NL (TR cubes 0–8): 5.5–6.4 EUR/kg, bias slightly soft (−0.02 to −0.03 EUR/kg at most) as buyers negotiate small discounts on limited spot volumes.