Rain-Delayed West African Crop Tightens Cashew Supply, Supports Kernels

West African raw cashew supply has tightened into mid‑2026 as rains curb late harvesting and quality, while kernel prices in Asia and Europe remain firm to slightly higher in euro terms. The near-term balance points to a mildly supportive environment for premium raw nuts and kernels despite softer farmgate prices in Ivory Coast. Trading in Ivory Coast and Benin slowed in the closing phase of the first‑half 2026 season as harvesting tapered off, on‑farm stocks thinned and frequent rains hampered drying and transport. Lower yields and weaker nut quality versus 2025, together with active Beninese processing and selective West African buying, are keeping the physical market relatively tight even as some producer prices have eased back from early-season highs.

Prices

Ivory Coast maintained an official farmgate floor of 400 CFA/kg early in the season, with actual farmgate levels around 400–425 CFA/kg in April before slipping to roughly 200–350 CFA/kg by June as the second harvest underperformed and quality declined. By contrast, export and factory-delivered values for premium lots remained firm at about 445–500 CFA/kg, underpinned by state-backed purchasing and financing aimed at absorbing residual stocks and preventing a steeper price correction.

In Benin, where no official producer price is set, first‑quarter farmgate values ranged from roughly 250 to 420 CFA/kg. As the season progressed and trading concentrated on residual inventories, cross-border demand and a tighter supply of sound, dry nuts kept farmgate prices relatively elevated at about 325–425 CFA/kg despite rainy-season quality issues. On the kernel side, recent offers indicate a slightly firmer tone: benchmark Indian W320 FOB New Delhi at about EUR 6.5/kg, Indian W450 near EUR 5.9–6.0/kg and Vietnamese WW320 FOB Hanoi around EUR 6.4/kg, with EU spot WW320 in the Netherlands roughly EUR 5.0–5.1/kg FCA (all values converted from late-July USD indications).

Supply & Demand

Ivory Coast remains the largest global producer of raw cashew nuts, but 2026 yields and kernel outturn ratios have fallen below 2025 levels. Persistent rainfall weakened the second harvest, pulling kernel recovery down to around 46–48 lbs and raising drying and sorting costs. Exporters responded by purchasing closer to ports and focusing on better-prepared stocks, reinforcing the price spread between premium and weather-affected material.

In Benin, a late start linked to elections and an ongoing ban on raw nut exports channeled more volume to domestic processing. Processors reportedly bought over 80,000 tonnes of raw cashew—the highest since the export ban began in April 2024—tightening the pool of exportable raw nuts in the sub-region. Cross-border demand from neighboring countries further underpinned prices for sound-quality nuts, while high moisture and quality downgrades made buyers more selective toward the end of the second quarter.

Fundamentals & Policy

The policy mix in Ivory Coast and Benin is reinforcing the shift toward local processing and away from unregulated raw nut exports. Ivory Coast’s early-season purchasing window reserved for processors, together with its farmgate floor and end-of-season support measures, helped limit downside pressure on high-quality nuts when weather and quality issues emerged. This framework, however, also contained margins at farm level once international competition intensified after exports resumed in April.

In Benin, the firm stance on banning raw cashew exports is increasingly effective in securing feedstock for local factories. The record processing intake above 80,000 tonnes suggests structural demand from domestic industry that is less sensitive to short-term farmgate volatility. Combined with selective buying amid quality concerns, this dynamic keeps a solid bid under well-dried nuts and contributes to firmer kernel values in key consuming regions, especially for standard whole white grades such as W240 and W320.

Weather & Quality Outlook

The transition into the heart of the West African rainy season is likely to maintain quality risks rather than bring immediate volume relief. Continued showers over cashew-producing belts in Ivory Coast and Benin are expected to challenge on-farm drying, raising mold and discoloration risks for late-harvested nuts. This environment favors traders and processors holding early-season, well-dried stocks and reinforces premiums for high outturn lots.

Looking ahead to the next crop cycle, the key watchpoint will be whether 2025/26-style rainfall patterns repeat or normalize. Another season of excessive moisture at critical stages would likely cement lower kernel recovery rates and keep processing costs elevated. Conversely, a return to more balanced conditions could restore outturns, which would ease pressure on kernel prices, particularly for mid-grade and broken fractions.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Raw nut buyers (West Africa): Focus on early-season and port-adjacent stocks with proven outturns; accept paying premiums for 46–48 lb+ material as late-season quality remains unreliable.
• Kernel importers (EU/US): Consider covering near-term needs in W320/W240 now, as current euro-denominated offers are firm but not yet reflecting the full impact of weaker West African quality.
• Processors in Benin/Ivory Coast: Maintain disciplined procurement and quality screening; prioritize financing for sound, low-moisture lots to capture potential upside in kernel differentials over the coming quarter.
• Speculative participants: Bias modestly to the long side in kernels, with tight risk controls, given weather-related supply risks and supportive policy regimes for local processing.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Indian kernels W320 FOB New Delhi: Stable to slightly firmer around EUR 6.4–6.6/kg.
• Vietnamese kernels WW320 FOB Hanoi: Stable to slightly firmer around EUR 6.3–6.5/kg.
• EU kernels WW320 FCA Netherlands: Mostly steady around EUR 4.6–4.8/kg, with firm undertone for prompt, certified quality.