Rapeseed and Canola Plummet

Rapeseed and Canola Plummet – U.S.-China Trade Tensions Hit Soybeans

Euronext rapeseed futures fell sharply on Tuesday, with the May contract dropping €16.25 to €511/t, the lowest level since January 3. Canola in Winnipeg suffered even steeper losses, with the May contract plunging 24.60 CAD to 621.30 CAD/t (-3.96%), equivalent to €423/t, following the newly imposed 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil exports.

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1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends

CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products

Contract	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Change	%
May 2025	999.00	-12.50	-1.24%
July 2025	1,013.00	-12.75	-1.24%
November 2025	1,026.25	-11.75	-1.13%

Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures

Contract	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Change	%
May 2025	511.00	-16.25	-3.08%
August 2025	484.75	-14.00	-2.80%
November 2025	486.25	-13.50	-2.70%

ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures

Contract	Closing Price (CAD/t)	Change	%
March 2025	607.30	-24.10	-3.97%
May 2025	621.30	-24.60	-3.96%
July 2025	630.60	-23.30	-3.69%

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2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

Key Market Developments

• U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Canadian Canola Oil – Prices Plummet
  → The U.S. slapped a 25% tariff on canola oil imports from Canada, severely impacting trade flow.
  → ICE Canola futures nosedived as traders adjusted to reduced U.S. demand.

• China Retaliates with 10% Tariff on U.S. Soybeans – Futures Fall Below $10/bu
  → China announced an additional 10% tariff on U.S. soybean imports, along with the suspension of shipments from three major U.S. exporters.
  → 1.569 MMT of U.S. soybeans were still booked for China but have not yet shipped, now at risk of cancellation or rerouting.
• South American Crops Improve, Further Pressuring Soybean Markets
  → Argentina & Brazil’s improving harvest outlooks are further weighing on soybeans.
  → Rainfall in Argentina last week significantly improved soil moisture conditions, boosting late-season crops.
• Malaysian Palm Oil, Crude Oil Decline Amid Broader Commodity Selloff
  → Malaysian palm oil futures dropped over 3%, their worst daily decline in weeks.
  → Crude oil prices also fell, as weaker economic data and geopolitical easing lowered demand expectations.

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3. 14-Day Weather Forecast

Argentina: Favorable Rain Improves Crop Outlook

Current Conditions:
→ Improved soil moisture across key growing regions.

14-Day Outlook:

• Temperatures: Normal, 22–30°C.
• Rainfall: Continued showers expected, sustaining soil moisture levels.
• Impact: Expected to stabilize yields and prevent further losses.

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4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days

Rapeseed (Euronext)

• Trend: Continued pressure from weak canola and global vegetable oil price weakness.
• Resistance Level: €520/t
• Support Level: €500/t
• Expected Range: €505 – €515/t

Soybeans (CBoT)

• Trend: Weakness likely to persist amid China’s trade retaliation and strong South American exports.
• Resistance Level: 1,010 ct/bu
• Support Level: 980 ct/bu
• Expected Range: 990 – 1,005 ct/bu

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5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

Season	Global Ending Stocks (MMT)	Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 MMT
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 MMT
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 MMT

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6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations

Market Insights:

• Soybeans, rapeseed, and canola all collapsed on trade war fears and improving South American crops.
• China’s retaliatory tariffs and suspensions of U.S. soybean purchases hit the market hard.
• Rain in Argentina and Brazil further weighs on soybean markets.

Market uncertainty remains high – South American crop progress and trade war developments will dictate future price movements.