📉 Sugar Prices Continue to Decline Amid Weak Demand & Market Corrections
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw further losses, with the May 2025 contract dropping by 1.31% to USD 518.00/t (EUR 481.74/t). The price decline reflects continued weak demand, improved supply conditions, and ongoing technical selling. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain under pressure, fluctuating between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as the industry struggles to maintain pricing power despite lower global stocks.
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 518.00 | €481.74 | -6.80 | -6.32 | -1.31% |
| Aug 25 | 498.90 | €464.98 | -8.20 | -7.61 | -1.64% |
| Oct 25 | 491.20 | €457.82 | -8.10 | -7.54 | -1.65% |
| Dec 25 | 488.30 | €455.12 | -7.70 | -7.16 | -1.58% |
| Mar 26 | 489.60 | €456.52 | -6.20 | -5.79 | -1.27% |
| May 26 | 488.80 | €455.58 | -5.20 | -4.86 | -1.06% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Ongoing Price Weakness Due to Soft Demand 📉
- Lack of buying interest keeps prices under pressure.
- Speculative selling continues, with no signs of a short-term rebound.
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🔹 EU Sugar Market Remains Stagnant 🇪🇺
- Prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as the market lacks strong demand.
- The sugar industry has failed to push through price increases, increasing seller competition.
- Despite declining global stocks, there is no immediate supply shortage in the EU market.
🔹 Improved Global Supply Conditions 🌎
- India’s export policies remain unchanged, providing stability to global supply chains.
- Brazil’s exports remain strong, ensuring steady shipments to key importing countries.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (05.03 – 07.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 510 – 520 USD/t (474 – 482 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices may continue to decline, with no clear bullish catalyst in sight.
- Further technical selling could push prices toward 510 USD/t in the short term.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, but demand weakness prevents price increases.
- Imports remain strong, balancing domestic consumption.
- Ethanol demand remains steady, keeping sugar allocations stable.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices continue to decline due to weak demand & technical selling.
✅ EU market remains under pressure, with no signs of higher prices.
✅ Global supply remains strong, limiting price increases.
✅ Further price corrections possible if demand does not improve.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Continue monitoring the market, as further declines could offer better purchasing opportunities.
🔹 Sellers: Expect continued short-term pressure, with limited short-term upside potential.
🔹 Traders: Watch for potential support levels around USD 510/t (EUR 474/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!
