📉 Rapeseed and Canola Plummet – U.S.-China Trade Tensions Hit Soybeans
📍Euronext rapeseed futures fell sharply on Tuesday, with the May contract dropping €16.25 to €511/t, the lowest level since January 3. Canola in Winnipeg suffered even steeper losses, with the May contract plunging 24.60 CAD to 621.30 CAD/t (-3.96%), equivalent to €423/t, following the newly imposed 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil exports.
📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 999.00 | -12.50 | -1.24% |
| July 2025 | 1,013.00 | -12.75 | -1.24% |
| November 2025 | 1,026.25 | -11.75 | -1.13% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 511.00 | -16.25 | -3.08% |
| August 2025 | 484.75 | -14.00 | -2.80% |
| November 2025 | 486.25 | -13.50 | -2.70% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 607.30 | -24.10 | -3.97% |
| May 2025 | 621.30 | -24.60 | -3.96% |
| July 2025 | 630.60 | -23.30 | -3.69% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Canadian Canola Oil – Prices Plummet 🇺🇸📉
→ The U.S. slapped a 25% tariff on canola oil imports from Canada, severely impacting trade flow.
→ ICE Canola futures nosedived as traders adjusted to reduced U.S. demand.
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- China Retaliates with 10% Tariff on U.S. Soybeans – Futures Fall Below $10/bu 🇨🇳📉
→ China announced an additional 10% tariff on U.S. soybean imports, along with the suspension of shipments from three major U.S. exporters.
→ 1.569 MMT of U.S. soybeans were still booked for China but have not yet shipped, now at risk of cancellation or rerouting. - South American Crops Improve, Further Pressuring Soybean Markets 🌦️
→ Argentina & Brazil’s improving harvest outlooks are further weighing on soybeans.
→ Rainfall in Argentina last week significantly improved soil moisture conditions, boosting late-season crops. - Malaysian Palm Oil, Crude Oil Decline Amid Broader Commodity Selloff 🏦
→ Malaysian palm oil futures dropped over 3%, their worst daily decline in weeks.
→ Crude oil prices also fell, as weaker economic data and geopolitical easing lowered demand expectations.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Favorable Rain Improves Crop Outlook
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Improved soil moisture across key growing regions.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Normal, 22–30°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued showers expected, sustaining soil moisture levels.
- 🚨 Impact: Expected to stabilize yields and prevent further losses.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Continued pressure from weak canola and global vegetable oil price weakness.
- Resistance Level: €520/t
- Support Level: €500/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €505 – €515/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Weakness likely to persist amid China’s trade retaliation and strong South American exports.
- Resistance Level: 1,010 ct/bu
- Support Level: 980 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 990 – 1,005 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Soybeans, rapeseed, and canola all collapsed on trade war fears and improving South American crops.
- China’s retaliatory tariffs and suspensions of U.S. soybean purchases hit the market hard.
- Rain in Argentina and Brazil further weighs on soybean markets.
🔮 Market uncertainty remains high – South American crop progress and trade war developments will dictate future price movements.
