Concise November 2026 rapeseed market update: flat MATIF curve, easing EU & Black Sea physical premiums, stable but finely balanced global fundamentals.
Prices
On Euronext (MATIF), the new‑crop February 2027 rapeseed contract last traded at 546.00 EUR/t, with May 2027 at 549.00 EUR/t and August 2027 at 526.75 EUR/t. Further out, November 2027 stands at 530.25 EUR/t and February 2028 at 530.00 EUR/t, while May 2028 trades at 529.00 EUR/t. The 2028 curve dips into the high‑400s EUR/t, with August 2028 at 473.00 EUR/t and November 2028 at 486.50 EUR/t.
This configuration confirms a largely flat forward curve concentrated around the low‑ to mid‑500s EUR/t for 2027–early 2028 delivery, with only a shallow discount for the outer 2028 positions. ICE canola futures in Canada are mixed but little changed, with nearby January 2027 closing at 788.40 CAD/t and March 2027 at 798.20 CAD/t, following a modest bounce on bargain‑buying after October’s setback.
Physical indications (EUR)
| Origin | Product | Delivery term | Latest price (EUR) | Recent trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine, Odesa | Rape seeds, grade 1, < 35 mcm | CPT | 0.414 | Softened from 0.432 in late October |
| Ukraine, Odesa | Rape seeds, 42% min oil, 98% purity | FCA | 0.44 | Down from 0.45 on Oct 22 |
| Ukraine, Kyiv | Rape seeds, 42% min oil, 98% purity | FCA | 0.43 | Down from 0.45 mid‑October |
| France, Paris | Rape seeds | FOB | 0.59 | Lower vs 0.63–0.64 earlier in October |
French FOB and Ukrainian CPT/FCA quotations show a clear easing of physical values through October, in line with the narrative of eroding premiums and comfortable nearby availability.
Supply & Demand
EU fundamentals remain moderately tight but not bullish. The European Commission currently pegs 2026/27 rapeseed production around 19.4 million tonnes, slightly below last season but still above the five‑year average, while imports are seen steady near 6.4 million tonnes. This points to a modest draw in stocks, yet not enough to trigger an aggressive price response on its own.
Planting incentives remain broadly positive: economics continue to favour rapeseed in key producers such as France and Germany, supporting area at an elevated level. However, yield risks after a weather‑stressed 2026 summer keep traders wary. Globally, Canadian canola supplies look adequate, but the independent strength of ICE contracts versus weaker soy oil and crude suggests canola‑specific demand is helping underpin values.
Ukraine remains a critical but variable supplier. Export logistics via Black Sea and Danube ports are functioning yet sensitive to security and infrastructure risks. Softening Black Sea physical prices indicate that, for now, export flows are sufficiently smooth to keep nearby supply well covered in Europe.
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Weather & Risk Factors
For Europe, the immediate focus is on establishment conditions for winter rapeseed. After a hot, dry summer in 2026, autumn rains have generally improved soil moisture in western and central EU, supporting emergence, though localized excess moisture and pest pressure are being reported. Weather through late autumn and winter will be decisive for yield potential.
In the Black Sea, relatively normal weather has allowed a solid export pace so far, but any renewed disruptions to Ukrainian logistics would quickly tighten nearby EU supply and could re‑inflate physical premiums. On the demand side, policy‑driven biofuel use in the EU underpins baseline crushing needs, yet any changes linked to sustainability regulation or EUDR implementation timelines could reshape medium‑term rapeseed oil demand.
Trading Outlook
- Flat curve favours nearby coverage: With MATIF Feb–Aug 2027 clustered around the low‑ to mid‑500s EUR/t and limited carry, end‑users may consider extending coverage modestly into mid‑2027 while physical premiums are still soft.
- Watch physical‑futures basis: Easing French FOB and Ukrainian CPT/FCA prices versus relatively steady futures highlight attractive basis opportunities for crushers and exporters able to lock in margins.
- Producers: cautious hedging: Growers with unpriced 2026/27 crop may use current futures levels to hedge a portion of output, keeping flexibility in case of renewed weather or logistics‑driven rallies later in the season.
- Optionality on weather/logistics risk: Given ongoing geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and weather uncertainty for the 2027 harvest, options strategies that retain upside exposure while protecting against further downside in flat futures could be attractive.
3‑Day Directional Outlook
- MATIF rapeseed (Feb–May 2027): Sideways to slightly firm; market balanced between soft physicals and light bargain‑buying.
- French FOB rapeseed: Stable to mildly weaker as export competition remains strong and premiums stay under pressure.
- Black Sea (Ukraine) CPT/FCA: Mostly steady; near‑term downside appears limited after recent easing, with direction tied to logistics headlines and nearby demand.