Record Australian Almond Shipments Reshape Global Nut Trade as India Demand Surges
Australian almond exports jump on strong India demand and record crop, tightening global nut supplies and reshaping trade flows and prices.
Australian almond exports are running at a record pace in 2026 on the back of a larger crop and surging demand from India, tightening global nut supplies and subtly shifting trade flows away from China. The latest industry data point to stronger shipments, buoyant export demand and firmer underlying price sentiment despite competitive pressure from California.
September shipments and season-to-date volumes confirm that Australian almonds are gaining market share in key growth destinations across Asia, the Middle East and Europe. For nut buyers and food manufacturers, this is translating into improved origin diversification, but also a slowly tightening balance sheet that could underpin prices into 2027.
Introduction
The Australian almond industry reported that exports between March 1 and September 30, 2026 reached 94,672 tons (kernel weight equivalent), up 4% year-on-year, with September exports alone rising 17% versus the same month in 2025. Asia-Pacific remains the primary outlet, though growth is increasingly driven by India and Southeast Asia rather than China.
Supporting this export performance is Australia’s largest almond crop on record: the Almond Board of Australia has finalized 2026 saleable intake at 178,292 tons, significantly above last year’s 155,697 tons. This larger supply base is allowing exporters to respond aggressively to demand spikes in India and other emerging markets, even as domestic Australian sales recover from earlier softness.
Immediate Market Impact
Stronger Australian export flows are adding volume into the global pipeline at a time when California—still the dominant supplier—is also reporting robust early-season shipments and higher export sales. September 2026 California shipments reached 232 million pounds, up 17.9% year-on-year, while export shipments in August were up more than 30% versus the previous season.
The combination of record Australian output and vigorous Californian exports is keeping near-term availability comfortable, but the market is turning structurally tighter as inventories normalize and demand growth accelerates in India, Southeast Asia and parts of the Middle East. Trade sources continue to describe sentiment as broadly bullish, with export-led drawdowns offsetting the headline increase in production.
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Supply Chain Disruptions
Despite higher volumes, logistics for Australian almond exports are functioning relatively smoothly, with no major port disruptions reported in recent days. Shipments in September were up 17% and domestic Australian market sales rebounded 11% in the same month, indicating that packing, inspection and outbound logistics are keeping pace with demand.
The main operational challenge stems from managing container availability and freight allocation into high-growth destinations such as India, where volumes are racing toward the 34,000-ton tariff-rate quota that benefits from a 50% duty discount under the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (AI-ECTA). After seven months of the season, 24,038 tons (gross weight) have already been shipped to India. Should volumes approach the quota ceiling, exporters may face a sharp change in demand as buyers reassess economics once full tariffs reapply.
Commodities Potentially Affected
- Almond kernels (Australia origin) – Record 2026 crop and 4% higher exports are boosting Australia’s share in India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, tightening origin-specific availability later in the season.
- Almond kernels (California origin) – Strong shipments (August and September exports up around 30% year-on-year) and lower carry-in stocks are underpinning a firmer international price floor, particularly for standard grades.
- Competing tree nuts (e.g. pistachios, cashews) – Food manufacturers and snack brands may rebalance formulations as almond prices stabilize or firm, marginally affecting demand for alternative nuts in price-sensitive segments.
- Value-added almond ingredients – Higher kernel throughput for export will feed into almond flour, paste and beverage lines, particularly in Asia, supporting greater downstream capacity utilization.
Regional Trade Implications
India has emerged as the standout growth market for Australian almonds in 2026, with season-to-date shipments up sharply and industry sources describing Indian demand as the “shining light” of the season. The preferential tariff window under AI-ECTA is encouraging early front-loading of purchases, temporarily drawing volumes away from other destinations, including China.
Trade into China from Australia has softened, consistent with broader data showing Chinese imports no longer absorbing as high a share of Australian almond exports as in previous years. Some of this displaced volume is being reallocated to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where shipments from both Australia and California are rising. California exporters report particularly strong growth in flows to Türkiye and Pakistan, in part reflecting rerouting from Gulf hubs.
For European buyers, increased Australian availability—alongside strong Californian shipments—offers improved optionality and risk diversification across origins. However, as more Australian product is pulled into India under preferential tariffs, EU and UK buyers may find Australian offers relatively less aggressive later in the marketing year.
Market Outlook
In the short term, CMB price indications for standard almond kernels show a slightly softer to stable tone versus late October, reflecting the arrival of new-crop volumes and efficient export logistics. At the same time, the steady erosion of global inventories and double-digit export growth from both Australia and California point to a more balanced to tight market in 2027.
Traders will watch closely whether Australian shipments to India reach or exceed the 34,000-ton tariff-rate quota threshold, as any loss of preferential duty could temper Indian buying and redirect more Australian product toward other destinations. On the US side, upcoming Almond Board position reports will be scrutinized for signs that shipment momentum is outpacing supply, which would reinforce the current bullish bias.
CMB Market Insight
For nut traders, roasters and food manufacturers, the 2026 season marks a subtle but important shift: Australia is consolidating its role as a strategic second origin to California, with record shipments and targeted trade agreements amplifying its influence on global price formation.
With India now firmly established as a leading growth driver and with Southeast Asia and the Middle East absorbing larger volumes from both major origins, participants should prepare for more origin-specific price differentiation and heightened sensitivity to policy instruments such as tariff-rate quotas. Active hedging, flexible origin sourcing and close monitoring of monthly position reports in both hemispheres will be key to managing procurement risk into 2027.