Tight West African Raw Supply Meets Firm Kernel Prices in Cashews

West Africa’s 2026 raw cashew season is entering a tighter, lower-quality late phase, while kernel prices in major processing hubs remain firm to slightly higher in euro terms. Buyers are becoming more selective on origin and quality, and the market is increasingly rewarding well‑dried, high‑outturn material. The global cashew complex is currently defined by constrained and uneven raw nut availability in West Africa versus steady kernel demand in Asia and consuming markets. In Côte d’Ivoire and Benin, the rainy season is capping arrivals and pressuring quality, which in turn raises processing costs and narrows workable margins. At the same time, kernel quotations in India, Vietnam and Europe are edging up modestly, reflecting both currency effects and the premium on reliable specifications. Market participants should focus on origin differentiation, quality premiums and timing of coverage for Q4 2026.

Prices

Farmgate prices in Côte d’Ivoire started the 2026 campaign around the official 400 CFA francs/kg (about EUR 0.76/kg at roughly 0.92 USD/EUR) and traded in a broad range near EUR 0.76–0.83/kg in April for standard raw nuts. As harvesting slowed and quality deteriorated, prices fell to roughly EUR 0.38–0.66/kg by June, while export- and factory-grade lots still achieved around EUR 0.83–0.96/kg.

In Benin, election-related delays pushed the start of the marketing season later than usual, but farmgate prices nonetheless ranged near EUR 0.48–0.80/kg in Q1. With harvesting now largely finished and only residual stocks moving, general farmgate prices are holding around EUR 0.62–0.82/kg, supported by cross‑border demand and premiums for well‑dried material.

Kernel prices at origin are firm. Indicatively, Indian FOB W320 kernels are around EUR 7.70–7.80/kg, W450 about EUR 6.60–6.70/kg, and organic W320 near EUR 9.50–9.60/kg. Vietnamese WW320 kernels are trading close to EUR 7.50/kg and WW240 near EUR 8.50/kg, while European FCA WW320 offers from the Netherlands are around EUR 5.50–5.60/kg, reflecting freight, financing and inventory carrying costs.

Supply & Demand

Côte d’Ivoire remains the world’s largest raw cashew producer in the first half of 2026, but both yields and nut quality trail last year. The government held the 400 CFA/kg farmgate price and initially reserved buying for domestic processors through late March, helping local plants secure volumes before export competition intensified from April onward. Frequent rains reduced kernel outturn ratios to about 46–48 lbs, forcing processors to absorb higher drying and sorting costs.

In Benin, the extension of the raw export ban continues to redirect nuts into the domestic processing sector. Processors there reportedly purchased over 80,000 mt of raw cashew, the highest since the April 2024 ban began. With harvesting now largely complete, the market is running on residual stocks, while cross‑border buyers sustain price floors for sound lots despite broader quality problems caused by the rainy season.

On the demand side, kernel interest from key consuming regions remains steady rather than exuberant. Buyers in Europe and North America are well covered for nearby shipments but increasingly differentiate by origin, outturn and certification (organic, fair trade), especially as raw quality variability in West Africa filters into kernel grading and yields.

Fundamentals & Weather

The main fundamental feature this season is the disconnect between lower raw quality and still‑supportive kernel prices. In Côte d’Ivoire and Benin, frequent rainfall during late harvest has depressed outturns and complicated post‑harvest handling. This not only reduces saleable kernel volumes per tonne of raw nuts but also raises energy and labor costs for drying, shelling and sorting.

As the 2026 West African campaign enters its closing phase, available raw volumes are tightening and skewed toward lower grades. Domestic processors in both countries now face a trade‑off: accept lower outturns and higher costs to keep plants running, or reduce utilization and risk losing scale advantages. Given the export ban in Benin and the priority window for Ivorian processors earlier in the season, many plants have already locked in sizable volumes, but their effective kernel output will be constrained by quality.

Weather-wise, the transition into the core rainy season in coastal West Africa is limiting further arrivals and heightening mold and defect risks for remaining on-farm stocks. Over the next few weeks, conditions are likely to keep quality on the defensive, reinforcing the premium for early-harvested and well‑dried nuts and underpinning kernel differentials for higher grades.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

With the West African raw season winding down and kernel prices already edging higher in major origins, the near-term balance points to a firm to slightly bullish undertone, especially for premium grades. The key uncertainty is how aggressively processors will compete for remaining high‑quality raw nuts versus managing throughput and margins more conservatively.

• Industry buyers (roasters, packers): Consider extending coverage for Q4 2026 on W320/WW320 and key broken grades at current levels, prioritizing suppliers with strong quality control and clear origin separation.
• Importers/wholesalers: Focus on building strategic stocks of premium kernels rather than chasing late-season raw nuts of uncertain quality. Use the current backward link between weaker raw prices and firm kernels to negotiate, but avoid deep discounts at the expense of specification risk.
• Processors in origin: Tighten raw intake specifications and adjust buying prices for low-outturn lots. Where possible, hedge kernel sales forward once raw coverage and expected outturns are clarified, locking in current kernel strength.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR, indicative)

• West African raw cashew (farmgate, standard quality): Largely stable to slightly softer in local terms, but with widening discounts for lower-quality nuts.
• Premium raw for export/factory: Stable to firm, supported by dwindling availability and quality premiums.
• Kernels W320 / WW320 (India, Vietnam, EU): Mild upward bias in EUR, reflecting firm demand and the cost impact of weaker West African raw quality.