Turkish Apricot New Crop Starts Smoothly as Stocks Run Dry

Harvesting in Malatya has started under ideal drying conditions, with no exportable old-crop stocks remaining and euro-denominated dried apricot prices currently stable. If the favorable weather persists, the export season is expected to open on schedule, keeping nearby supply tight but improving medium‑term availability. The new season in core Turkish origin Malatya is now underway in the lower-lying orchards, while higher-altitude areas are about a week behind. Day and night conditions are very good for drying and no rain is forecast in the coming weeks, supporting product quality and a timely transition into the export phase. With exportable stocks effectively exhausted, early new-crop volumes will be closely watched by importers. Local sentiment is also buoyed by the Malatya Apricot Festival from 17–21 July, which traditionally marks the start of active marketing for the new crop.

Prices

Domestic offers for Turkish dried apricots in Malatya and Ankara are broadly unchanged in recent weeks, indicating a stable price floor as the new crop begins. Unsulphured conventional material (FOB Malatya) currently clusters around EUR 7.8–8.6/kg depending on size, while organic equivalents range roughly from EUR 9.3–10.4/kg. Sulphured types trade slightly below or near unsulphured values, with size No. 1 around EUR 8.6–8.7/kg FOB.

In European distribution hubs such as the Netherlands and Poland, FCA prices for existing Turkish-origin stock are lower, typically EUR 5.2–6.8/kg depending on size and specification. This reflects the carry of earlier‑booked volumes rather than current replacement costs from origin. The absence of exportable stocks in Malatya means that once this pipeline is drawn down, replacement will be determined by new-crop contract levels rather than legacy pricing.

Supply & Demand

The key short-term feature of the market is the lack of exportable old-crop stock in Malatya. This leaves exporters entirely dependent on new harvest arrivals, which have just started in lower-altitude orchards, with higher areas to follow in about a week. Under these conditions, any early disruption to drying or quality would quickly translate into tight nearby offers.

On the demand side, European buyers still have access to competitively priced inventory in logistics hubs, but forward cover into the new season is limited. Given the clean carry-out in origin, importers will likely re‑enter the market for Q4 2026 and early 2027 needs as soon as reliable sizing and quality data from the new crop is available. The Malatya Apricot Festival on 17–21 July is expected to act as a catalyst for more active negotiations between growers, packers, and traders.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Current weather in Malatya is hot and dry with clear skies and large diurnal ranges, providing excellent natural drying conditions for the new crop. Forecasts for the coming week indicate continued sunshine and high daytime temperatures in the mid‑30s °C, with no significant rainfall expected. This pattern supports fast and uniform drying, reduced mould risk, and generally favourable product colour.

If these conditions persist through the peak of harvest at higher altitudes, the region should be able to start export shipments on schedule without weather‑related delays. In this context, agronomic risk for the immediate harvest window looks limited, and attention shifts towards final yields and sizing distribution rather than weather damage.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks: No remaining exportable stock in origin creates a clean transition to the new season and supports a firm undertone despite stable nominal prices.
• Harvest timing: Lower areas are already harvesting and drying, while higher-altitude orchards are about one week away from full activity, spreading intake over time.
• Quality outlook: Excellent drying conditions and absence of rain are positive for colour, texture and sulphur requirements, reducing the probability of quality‑related discounts.
• Logistics: Existing European FCA inventories at EUR 5–7/kg still provide a short‑term buffer, but replacement costs from origin are higher and could re‑anchor pricing once old lots are depleted.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / packers: Consider gradually extending cover for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 once first reliable new-crop offers are published, as the clean carry-out and strong drying conditions argue against a sharp price correction to the downside.
• Retail and industry buyers: Use current FCA opportunities in Europe to secure near‑term needs, but benchmark against higher FOB replacement levels to avoid underestimating future cost inflation.
• Growers and exporters: With no old-crop competition and favourable weather, maintain pricing discipline in early negotiations; focus on quality differentiation between sulphured and unsulphured, and between conventional and organic lines.

3‑Day Price Indication

• FOB Malatya (TR) dried apricots: Prices expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward bias once structured new-crop export offers emerge.
• FCA NL / PL dried apricots: Mostly steady, with mild firmness possible as nearby demand draws down remaining lower‑priced stocks.